1. This is the biggest OSU game for Michigan since 1997. I have no problem writing that. OSU's dominance of this rivalry has primarily resulted from the fact they've just been flat better in that time. Since the streak started in 2001, we lost twice as a favorite (2001, 2004), and frankly, the 2001 team was coming apart at the seams by the time of the OSU game. But now, there is absolutely no question we are the vastly better team. The only advantage that you'd give OSU over UM is its passing attack and OSU will have to face the nation's #1 passing defense, while we face the Shitty Schiano defense. The bottom line is we have to win or the fallout will be severe.
2. For those that wanted OSU to win out, hope you're happy. The stakes are inevitably higher. Understand that Michigan has the 3rd largest victory margin for a B1G team in conference play since 2000 (behind 2006 and 2017 OSU). There has only time been a larger gap between the #1 team in conference and #2 team. And, yet incredibly, we are now one bad afternoon away from not even winning the Big 10 East. OSU has the profile of a 8-3 type team, yet has won two games this year (PSU and MD) where it had less than a 10% chance of winning in the fourth quarter. What now would have been a loss akin to say OSU losing in 1996 to Michigan (but still winning the B1G anyway and the Rose Bowl) has now become an outcome even more noxious as we wouldn't just lose again to OSU but the streak of years without a B1G title would grow, and we'd have to watch the worst OSU team in 15 years somehow steal the B1G title and even potentially a playoff spot.
3. To me, even more this game being a referendum on Harbaugh, it's a referendum on his whole offensive system. We will likely not face as porous an OSU defense as this one for another decade. What does it say about our system if we can't take advantage of it. Michigan is averaging 36.8 points a game in Big 10 play. We should be able to get that in this game. If we do, we win. If we put up 21-24 points and 300-350 total yards, then some hard soul searching about our offense needs to take place. Because what good is our offensive approach if it puts us at a severe disadvantage against our biggest rival every year?
4. The two keys to this game are the first quarter pass rush and the red zone execution. Bottom line is if we get to Haskins early, he'll feel it all game, and he gets happy feet. If we can't get home early and he gets comfortable, he can get comfortable and will make tough throws all game. On offense, one of our flaws this year has been an inability to cash in on good scoring opportunities in the first half. We let PSU and Wisconsin hang around way too long because we took (and missed) FG attempts and squandered good field position. If we do that here, and it's 16-10 in the 3rd, we're begging for Urban to pull another one out of his ass.
5. In terms of big picture, Harbaugh has to win this game. If he won in 2016, then that wouldn't necessarily be the case, but if he loses with clearly the better team, he's well on his way to compiling a John Cooper record against OSU. He'd be 0-4, and if he coaches a decade, he'd basically have to run the table against OSU to end up with a respectable record. Further, the media would have a field day here. We'd hear how he couldn't beat the worst OSU team in a decade (true if you disregard the 2011 team). We'd hear how he again lost to his biggest rivals (noting the ND loss), and that he can only beat a rival when they're down (citing MSU as being a mediocre team). He might not never get another shot at Urban Meyer. It would also greatly stall our recruiting momentum. OSU would again win the Big 10 and likely be considered the team to beat next year. We'd have lost to a bad OSU team in a peak roster year. But if we win....now Harbaugh has the monkey off his back. We likely win the conference and make the playoff. With OSU at home next year (and potentially a new coach), it's easy to see Harbaugh heading into Columbus in 2020 with a chance to even his mark at 3-3 against OSU. If Urban retires, it's easy to see this as the start of a 3-5 year run for UM in the Big 10 reminiscent of the late 80s/early 90s.
6. My ultimate prediction is we're going to beat them soundly. Everything says this should be a 2-3 score Michigan win. We average 36 a game, and their defense is weak. Our defense is as good as it gets, but their passing game is explosive, so they'll generate some points -- but if MSU can hold them in the 20s, we should be able to as well. For Michigan fans rationalizing it's been a good year even with a loss and that OSU will play their best game, you need to stop justifying why every year we should lose this game. OSU hasn't played one good game all year. They're not going to start figuring out how to block, or figure out how to cover because its Michigan. This isn't 2016 where we were facing an OSU team that crushed OU on the road. This team's biggest wins were basically pull it out their ass miracles. I do believe if the game is close late, OSU will win. Because if that happens, we would have let the pressure get to us and/or not executed. But not this year. We are the much better team and should will prove it Saturday. Call it Michigan 38, OSU 20.
2. For those that wanted OSU to win out, hope you're happy. The stakes are inevitably higher. Understand that Michigan has the 3rd largest victory margin for a B1G team in conference play since 2000 (behind 2006 and 2017 OSU). There has only time been a larger gap between the #1 team in conference and #2 team. And, yet incredibly, we are now one bad afternoon away from not even winning the Big 10 East. OSU has the profile of a 8-3 type team, yet has won two games this year (PSU and MD) where it had less than a 10% chance of winning in the fourth quarter. What now would have been a loss akin to say OSU losing in 1996 to Michigan (but still winning the B1G anyway and the Rose Bowl) has now become an outcome even more noxious as we wouldn't just lose again to OSU but the streak of years without a B1G title would grow, and we'd have to watch the worst OSU team in 15 years somehow steal the B1G title and even potentially a playoff spot.
3. To me, even more this game being a referendum on Harbaugh, it's a referendum on his whole offensive system. We will likely not face as porous an OSU defense as this one for another decade. What does it say about our system if we can't take advantage of it. Michigan is averaging 36.8 points a game in Big 10 play. We should be able to get that in this game. If we do, we win. If we put up 21-24 points and 300-350 total yards, then some hard soul searching about our offense needs to take place. Because what good is our offensive approach if it puts us at a severe disadvantage against our biggest rival every year?
4. The two keys to this game are the first quarter pass rush and the red zone execution. Bottom line is if we get to Haskins early, he'll feel it all game, and he gets happy feet. If we can't get home early and he gets comfortable, he can get comfortable and will make tough throws all game. On offense, one of our flaws this year has been an inability to cash in on good scoring opportunities in the first half. We let PSU and Wisconsin hang around way too long because we took (and missed) FG attempts and squandered good field position. If we do that here, and it's 16-10 in the 3rd, we're begging for Urban to pull another one out of his ass.
5. In terms of big picture, Harbaugh has to win this game. If he won in 2016, then that wouldn't necessarily be the case, but if he loses with clearly the better team, he's well on his way to compiling a John Cooper record against OSU. He'd be 0-4, and if he coaches a decade, he'd basically have to run the table against OSU to end up with a respectable record. Further, the media would have a field day here. We'd hear how he couldn't beat the worst OSU team in a decade (true if you disregard the 2011 team). We'd hear how he again lost to his biggest rivals (noting the ND loss), and that he can only beat a rival when they're down (citing MSU as being a mediocre team). He might not never get another shot at Urban Meyer. It would also greatly stall our recruiting momentum. OSU would again win the Big 10 and likely be considered the team to beat next year. We'd have lost to a bad OSU team in a peak roster year. But if we win....now Harbaugh has the monkey off his back. We likely win the conference and make the playoff. With OSU at home next year (and potentially a new coach), it's easy to see Harbaugh heading into Columbus in 2020 with a chance to even his mark at 3-3 against OSU. If Urban retires, it's easy to see this as the start of a 3-5 year run for UM in the Big 10 reminiscent of the late 80s/early 90s.
6. My ultimate prediction is we're going to beat them soundly. Everything says this should be a 2-3 score Michigan win. We average 36 a game, and their defense is weak. Our defense is as good as it gets, but their passing game is explosive, so they'll generate some points -- but if MSU can hold them in the 20s, we should be able to as well. For Michigan fans rationalizing it's been a good year even with a loss and that OSU will play their best game, you need to stop justifying why every year we should lose this game. OSU hasn't played one good game all year. They're not going to start figuring out how to block, or figure out how to cover because its Michigan. This isn't 2016 where we were facing an OSU team that crushed OU on the road. This team's biggest wins were basically pull it out their ass miracles. I do believe if the game is close late, OSU will win. Because if that happens, we would have let the pressure get to us and/or not executed. But not this year. We are the much better team and should will prove it Saturday. Call it Michigan 38, OSU 20.
