1. The game was ultimately lost early. Michigan had a chance to put the throat down on UCLA early in this one, and you had a bad feeling that once UCLA survived an early 6 minute drought with the game basically even, that it knew it had a chance. As for the late game shots, I'll take those every time. It is very difficult to throw the ball into the post in the last 5-10 seconds. Dickinson is getting a quick double and he's been turnover prone. We got three open looks at the basket with two of our better players (even the last look with .5 seconds was a good look considering the circumstances). It didn't drop.
2. As I wrote yesterday before the game, don't get fooled by 1 vs 11 seeds, and based on the postgame reaction, it seems as if that is what happened. Michigan is not a true 1 seed without Livers. People sort of forgot that after the Florida State game. Michigan is better than it showed last night but if it played FSU 10 times, we probably get the result we saw Sunday 1 or 2 times at most. This is a solid top 10/3 seed-ish club with Livers. Beating two top 20 teams in LSU and Florida State validated that. But the minute Livers went down this team had no margin for error. We said before the tournament that Michigan couldn't afford bad nights from Wagner and Dickinson and likely advance and unfortunately that's what happened. Consider that in the age of the three pointer, Michigan made a grand total of 5 in the two regional games against FSU and UCLA. Michigan was always going to feel Livers' absence, and unfortunately it came one game too early.
3. Where this fits in the pantheon of gut-punches is tough to determine. Ultimately, I judge a difficult loss by two circumstances -- first what was at stake in the game and two, could the team have kept on winning. Under the first criteria, this is very difficult. We lost an opportunity at a Final 4 banner. Juwan Howard seems like a home run hire but it is very possible he could have a great 10-12 year career and maybe never get back here. This board loves Matt Painter and he has been to the Elite 8 one time in 14 years. But the second criteria is why it will never burn as bad as some others (2013 title game, even the 2014 Elite 8 loss). This team wasn't winning it all without Livers. It's not even that it couldn't have beaten Gonzaga in one game--it could have though it would have been a tall order. It's that it would have to defeat Gonzaga and then Baylor two days later, who arguably presents even more matchup issues.
4. This team in some ways reminds me of the 2014 team. Both teams won regular season B1G titles in what were very strong B1G conferences. Both teams suffered a killer injury along the way that probably ultimately lowered their ceiling. But both teams showed tremendous grit in fighting through and having memorable campaigns. But when you look at this roster compared to that one -- the high-end talent isn't there. Wagner is a first round pick, and maybe Dickerson gets there too. The 2014 team started two guys who were first rounders (Stauskas, Levert), another who is still in the NBA (GR3) and a point guard who was a top 40 recruit and had a cup of coffee in the NBA.
5. This team takes its place as one of the three most memorable bball teams since 2000. 2008-2009 will always have a place for breaking the NCAA streak which hovered like an anchor around our neck, a glass ceiling that we couldn't crack. The 2013 ride to the title game was unforgettable, and it still burns me to this day how the refs killed us. And now this team -- one with a Columbia grad transfer and borderline top 200 kid in the backcourt, and maybe one high-end prospect that fought through a season like no other to win a B1G outright title, and then rallied again to make the Elite 8 and beat two quality teams along the way.
6. It really is amazing how one shot changes everything. Michigan was every bit as bad against Houston in the 2018 second round as they were last night (go look at the last possession in that game) but got bailed out and won. Michigan had a terrific look against Oregon in 2017. We remember the 2013 Sweet 16 win over Kansas but Michigan was awful for most of that game. There is a world where Michigan's last ten years could have gone like this: 2011-Elite 8, 2012-1st round, 2013-Sweet 16, 2014-Final 4, 2017-Elite 8 2018-second round, 2020-Final 4 -- and nothing about the coaching would have been any different.
7. It's so hard to project next season as college basketball is variant. I think it's highly unlikely we are as good in the regular season, as B1G outright titles and #1 seeds are rare (For all of Izzo's prowess, MSU has been a 1 seed once since 2001). But I do think we will be more athletic in the backcourt and on the wings, and we will have probably the most dominant post player in the country in Dickinson. Howard will have to blend a talented class, some likely transfers with returning players, but I'm confident we will find the right mix and have a chance again to be a top 3 seed again in March (which would be the 4th year in a row, a Michigan record). All I know is Dickinson-Johns and hopefully one of the backcourt guys is a great starting point.
2. As I wrote yesterday before the game, don't get fooled by 1 vs 11 seeds, and based on the postgame reaction, it seems as if that is what happened. Michigan is not a true 1 seed without Livers. People sort of forgot that after the Florida State game. Michigan is better than it showed last night but if it played FSU 10 times, we probably get the result we saw Sunday 1 or 2 times at most. This is a solid top 10/3 seed-ish club with Livers. Beating two top 20 teams in LSU and Florida State validated that. But the minute Livers went down this team had no margin for error. We said before the tournament that Michigan couldn't afford bad nights from Wagner and Dickinson and likely advance and unfortunately that's what happened. Consider that in the age of the three pointer, Michigan made a grand total of 5 in the two regional games against FSU and UCLA. Michigan was always going to feel Livers' absence, and unfortunately it came one game too early.
3. Where this fits in the pantheon of gut-punches is tough to determine. Ultimately, I judge a difficult loss by two circumstances -- first what was at stake in the game and two, could the team have kept on winning. Under the first criteria, this is very difficult. We lost an opportunity at a Final 4 banner. Juwan Howard seems like a home run hire but it is very possible he could have a great 10-12 year career and maybe never get back here. This board loves Matt Painter and he has been to the Elite 8 one time in 14 years. But the second criteria is why it will never burn as bad as some others (2013 title game, even the 2014 Elite 8 loss). This team wasn't winning it all without Livers. It's not even that it couldn't have beaten Gonzaga in one game--it could have though it would have been a tall order. It's that it would have to defeat Gonzaga and then Baylor two days later, who arguably presents even more matchup issues.
4. This team in some ways reminds me of the 2014 team. Both teams won regular season B1G titles in what were very strong B1G conferences. Both teams suffered a killer injury along the way that probably ultimately lowered their ceiling. But both teams showed tremendous grit in fighting through and having memorable campaigns. But when you look at this roster compared to that one -- the high-end talent isn't there. Wagner is a first round pick, and maybe Dickerson gets there too. The 2014 team started two guys who were first rounders (Stauskas, Levert), another who is still in the NBA (GR3) and a point guard who was a top 40 recruit and had a cup of coffee in the NBA.
5. This team takes its place as one of the three most memorable bball teams since 2000. 2008-2009 will always have a place for breaking the NCAA streak which hovered like an anchor around our neck, a glass ceiling that we couldn't crack. The 2013 ride to the title game was unforgettable, and it still burns me to this day how the refs killed us. And now this team -- one with a Columbia grad transfer and borderline top 200 kid in the backcourt, and maybe one high-end prospect that fought through a season like no other to win a B1G outright title, and then rallied again to make the Elite 8 and beat two quality teams along the way.
6. It really is amazing how one shot changes everything. Michigan was every bit as bad against Houston in the 2018 second round as they were last night (go look at the last possession in that game) but got bailed out and won. Michigan had a terrific look against Oregon in 2017. We remember the 2013 Sweet 16 win over Kansas but Michigan was awful for most of that game. There is a world where Michigan's last ten years could have gone like this: 2011-Elite 8, 2012-1st round, 2013-Sweet 16, 2014-Final 4, 2017-Elite 8 2018-second round, 2020-Final 4 -- and nothing about the coaching would have been any different.
7. It's so hard to project next season as college basketball is variant. I think it's highly unlikely we are as good in the regular season, as B1G outright titles and #1 seeds are rare (For all of Izzo's prowess, MSU has been a 1 seed once since 2001). But I do think we will be more athletic in the backcourt and on the wings, and we will have probably the most dominant post player in the country in Dickinson. Howard will have to blend a talented class, some likely transfers with returning players, but I'm confident we will find the right mix and have a chance again to be a top 3 seed again in March (which would be the 4th year in a row, a Michigan record). All I know is Dickinson-Johns and hopefully one of the backcourt guys is a great starting point.
