The following are my initial thoughts on Michigan-MSU after looking at the numbers:
When Michigan is on Offense:
Michigan State has a defense where, as an offense, you want to use the pass to set up the run (1st in YPC; 46th in YPA; 55th in passer rating). This would be a drastic change for Michigan, who is 26th in run rate on standard downs. The Wolverines' run-heavy strategy has been successful. They're 37th in rushing efficiency and 11th in standard downs efficiency, and as a result, no team sets itself up with more third-and-shorts or has a shorter average third-down distance than them.
The problem, though, is MSU's run defense is first in efficiency (but 108th in explosiveness). The Spartans most likely will stone your rusher, though, on the few occasions that they don't, they tend to surrender a big play (see: Miles Sanders). This could mean many more third-and-longs for Michigan than it is accustomed to, and, unfortunately, U-M is 129th in third-and-long success rate.
If Michigan wins the early downs on the ground and stays ahead of the chains, U-M's offense will blow MSU out of the water. If U-M can't, it still has the ability to put up points. MSU is susceptible to surrendering big plays on the ground, and the Wolverines can exploit that (17th in rushing explosiveness) as the offensive line continues to gel and they use Shea Patterson's legs more frequently to hold defenses accountable. Further, the Spartans are prone to experiencing death by a 1,000 slants (77th in passing effiency; 111th in completion rate), and Michigan, especially with its tight ends, has the weapons to inflict that pain (12th in passing efficiency; 19th in completion rate).
I expect that Jim Harbaugh, in his stubbornness, will first test MSU's run defense to see if U-M can bully them off the line. However, if that doesn't work, Harbaugh needs to put the game in the hands (and feet) of Patterson and trust he can keep drives alive with quick throws and decisions.
When Michigan is on Defense:
On paper, this should be a massacre.
Michigan State is 75th in Offensive S&P+. Michigan is first in Defensive S&P+.
MSU is 118th in rushing effiency and 82nd in explosiveness. U-M is 14th and fifth, respecitvely.
MSU is 62nd in passing efficiency and 88th in explosiveness. U-M is 8th and 23rd, respectively.
However, this game isn't played on paper, and I think there may be three areas where MSU may be able to generate points and yards. First, Felton Davis. With Cody White out (I believe) with a broken hand, Davis is the one receiver who can create problems for Michigan. The good news for U-M is that Davis is an outside receiver, and U-M's three corners have been excellent this season. We will see if MSU tries to get Davis into the slot so that he can attack U-M's safeties in man coverage.
Second, Brian Lewerke's legs. Lewerke is not fast, but he is shifty enough to make plays on the ground. In fact, when sacks are excluded, he is the Spartans' leading rusher this season (198 yards, 4.8 YPC), which speaks to how horrid MSU's running game has been. Lewerke's dual threat ability has given U-M fits in the past and allowed him to make plays he otherwise shouldn't. However, if U-M's DTs can stay disciplined, U-M's DEs and LBs have the speed to slow him down.
Third, the plays (tricks or not) that Dantonio keeps in his back pocket and saves just for this game. Michigan knows they're coming. We know they're coming. Everyone knows they're coming. The only question is if Michigan will be able to stop them. If U-M can, U-M should be in great shape.
/end novel
When Michigan is on Offense:
Michigan State has a defense where, as an offense, you want to use the pass to set up the run (1st in YPC; 46th in YPA; 55th in passer rating). This would be a drastic change for Michigan, who is 26th in run rate on standard downs. The Wolverines' run-heavy strategy has been successful. They're 37th in rushing efficiency and 11th in standard downs efficiency, and as a result, no team sets itself up with more third-and-shorts or has a shorter average third-down distance than them.
The problem, though, is MSU's run defense is first in efficiency (but 108th in explosiveness). The Spartans most likely will stone your rusher, though, on the few occasions that they don't, they tend to surrender a big play (see: Miles Sanders). This could mean many more third-and-longs for Michigan than it is accustomed to, and, unfortunately, U-M is 129th in third-and-long success rate.
If Michigan wins the early downs on the ground and stays ahead of the chains, U-M's offense will blow MSU out of the water. If U-M can't, it still has the ability to put up points. MSU is susceptible to surrendering big plays on the ground, and the Wolverines can exploit that (17th in rushing explosiveness) as the offensive line continues to gel and they use Shea Patterson's legs more frequently to hold defenses accountable. Further, the Spartans are prone to experiencing death by a 1,000 slants (77th in passing effiency; 111th in completion rate), and Michigan, especially with its tight ends, has the weapons to inflict that pain (12th in passing efficiency; 19th in completion rate).
I expect that Jim Harbaugh, in his stubbornness, will first test MSU's run defense to see if U-M can bully them off the line. However, if that doesn't work, Harbaugh needs to put the game in the hands (and feet) of Patterson and trust he can keep drives alive with quick throws and decisions.
When Michigan is on Defense:
On paper, this should be a massacre.
Michigan State is 75th in Offensive S&P+. Michigan is first in Defensive S&P+.
MSU is 118th in rushing effiency and 82nd in explosiveness. U-M is 14th and fifth, respecitvely.
MSU is 62nd in passing efficiency and 88th in explosiveness. U-M is 8th and 23rd, respectively.
However, this game isn't played on paper, and I think there may be three areas where MSU may be able to generate points and yards. First, Felton Davis. With Cody White out (I believe) with a broken hand, Davis is the one receiver who can create problems for Michigan. The good news for U-M is that Davis is an outside receiver, and U-M's three corners have been excellent this season. We will see if MSU tries to get Davis into the slot so that he can attack U-M's safeties in man coverage.
Second, Brian Lewerke's legs. Lewerke is not fast, but he is shifty enough to make plays on the ground. In fact, when sacks are excluded, he is the Spartans' leading rusher this season (198 yards, 4.8 YPC), which speaks to how horrid MSU's running game has been. Lewerke's dual threat ability has given U-M fits in the past and allowed him to make plays he otherwise shouldn't. However, if U-M's DTs can stay disciplined, U-M's DEs and LBs have the speed to slow him down.
Third, the plays (tricks or not) that Dantonio keeps in his back pocket and saves just for this game. Michigan knows they're coming. We know they're coming. Everyone knows they're coming. The only question is if Michigan will be able to stop them. If U-M can, U-M should be in great shape.
/end novel
