My theory is that the on-field disparity between teams with "something to play for" and teams without something to play for is similar to what we've seen in bowl games in recent years all season this year because of COVID. I call this the "hold the rope" theory, which is a callback to a principle my high school football coach used, about a team gutting it out for each other through adversity (http://coachfore.org/2012/07/22/hold-the-rope-powerful-and-inspirational-story-for-your-team/). Something about COVID makes it easier to drop the rope, and this is a phenomenon not unique to Michigan.
But let's look at Michigan's season through this lens. Specifically, Michigan has had the misfortune of playing a team with something to play for every week thus far, while being a team without something to play for the last two weeks:
Note this is not an excuse for Michigan....for starters, losing to Michigan State was dramatically bad both because they're an awful team, but also because based on this theory, it may have cost us the Indiana game. We weren't winning the Wisconsin game either way.
As the season goes on, it will be interesting to see if some teams can turn it around. Maryland bounced back from an awful week 1. Oklahoma has pulled themselves off the mat after starting 0-2. Michigan has a chance based on their schedule the next 3 weeks.
Teams that fit this theory really well: Penn State, who outplayed Indiana in week 1 but lost, and then had Ohio State next, and just lost to another previously winless team. Minnesota, who was god awful for a couple weeks after we beat them. Mississippi State, who beat LSU in week 1, lost to a 1-0 team in week 2, then haven't won since. Florida State (though they may just be terrible, period)
Teams that don't: LSU, which has lost/won/lost/won/lost. The aforementioned Oklahoma.
Tell me where I'm wrong...
But let's look at Michigan's season through this lens. Specifically, Michigan has had the misfortune of playing a team with something to play for every week thus far, while being a team without something to play for the last two weeks:
- Minnesota: Week 1, no losses yet, both teams were still playing for their seasons. Michigan looked good.
- Michigan State: beating Michigan is their season, so despite their loss to Rutgers, they were not lacking in any focus or determination. Michigan was also obviously still playing for their season.
- Indiana: Undefeated up to that point, still playing for their season
- Wisconsin: Undefeated up to that point, still playing for their season
Note this is not an excuse for Michigan....for starters, losing to Michigan State was dramatically bad both because they're an awful team, but also because based on this theory, it may have cost us the Indiana game. We weren't winning the Wisconsin game either way.
As the season goes on, it will be interesting to see if some teams can turn it around. Maryland bounced back from an awful week 1. Oklahoma has pulled themselves off the mat after starting 0-2. Michigan has a chance based on their schedule the next 3 weeks.
Teams that fit this theory really well: Penn State, who outplayed Indiana in week 1 but lost, and then had Ohio State next, and just lost to another previously winless team. Minnesota, who was god awful for a couple weeks after we beat them. Mississippi State, who beat LSU in week 1, lost to a 1-0 team in week 2, then haven't won since. Florida State (though they may just be terrible, period)
Teams that don't: LSU, which has lost/won/lost/won/lost. The aforementioned Oklahoma.
Tell me where I'm wrong...
