1. Let's start with the big picture. What does Harbaugh need to keep his job, or at least turn this around to the point where recruiting can swing back in the other direction and we can take advantage of a staff that supposedly recruits aggressively. I think he needs a season very similar to 2015 to really solidify his status. That is, 9-3 with some big wins and competitive in most losses. If you follow recruiting, it's clear as day that a lot of recruits believe that Harbaugh is a dead man walking, which has taken our recruiting down a notch. What do you think another season of 7-5 with 2-3 blowout losses would do (including OSU, because it's hard to see a world where we lose 4+ games and beat OSU). IF Harbaugh returned in that scenario, we will be lucky to recruit at a top 25 level next season. And now you're talking about stacking 2-3 classes together that are closer to Rutgers and Maryland than OSU and PSU. And there is the economic aspect of this. Warde has put together a brutally terrible schedule for season ticket holders next season. How many Michigan fans are coming out in 2022 for CSU, Hawaii and Uconn if we're coming up off a dreary 8-5 season that ended in the Music City Bowl? Michigan is saying all the right things, but I'd bet Harbaugh will be gone unless he gets us back to the PSU/Wisconsin tier this year.
2. The argument against Harbaugh being fired is the staff all has two year deals. However, if the running backs perform well this year and the team struggles, I wouldn't put it past Warde to hire Mike Hart as head coach next season. Is that what I would do? No. But if Warde really believes in the staff, he could view Hart as his football Juwan Howard. A guy who would be embraced the fanbase, recruit like cray and put together a good staff. I'd put the odds at Hart coaching Michigan as higher than Harbaugh if we win less than 9 games this season.
3. If Harbaugh doesn't make it, I really believe the offense will do him in. Harbaugh tied himself to Gattis, and that could be his undoing. I've always thought that Harbaugh panicked in response to that 2018 OSU loss. Go back and look at that tape -- Michigan's offensive scheme was good enough that day to score 50+ points if we didn't have unforced errors like drops all over the field. Instead, Harbaugh hired a coach and employed a scheme that he doesn't believe in. To his credit, Harbaugh has been patient but this is definitely it for Gattis. If you look at the talent amassed on offense, Gattis should be under the gun to produce a top 20 offense this year. There isn't one position on offense that isn't filled with recruits that were Plan A or A- kids that UM desperately wanted. Most of the playes have been here multiple year. There are no excuses for this offense not to be very productive.
4. With all that said, I'm optimistic that we're going to be better than people think. I actually like our defensive personnel a lot and will predict that we finish in the top 25 nationally on defense. We have two guys that could be All-Americans if they hit their ceiling. Green came on at corner last year. The linebacking reports are encouraging. Obviously Mazi Smith is a huge key, but people forget that we had big issues up the middle two years ago, and still won 9 games. It wasn't like every team didn't try to run on us that year. Iowa did nothing. Yes, we will likely get gouged once or twice even if Mazi doesn't step up. But I don't see this defense giving up the big plays in the passing game that it did a year ago.
5. While Cade will play game one, I'd be surprised if he is the starter by November. Generally, the combination of a lower ceiling and injury prone almost inevitably loses out. The best case scenario for Michigan is McNamara is essentially a 2020 version of Major Applegate --a guy who people thought would be passed every year but was so productive that he started all four seasons. But for that to happen, McNamara needs to play well and Michigan has to win.
6. My season prediction is 9-3. I think we will beat Washington (home game against a West coast team that has offensive question is as ideal a matchup as you can get) and pull an upset against PSU. I'll peg losses against Wisconsin, Maryland and OSU.
2. The argument against Harbaugh being fired is the staff all has two year deals. However, if the running backs perform well this year and the team struggles, I wouldn't put it past Warde to hire Mike Hart as head coach next season. Is that what I would do? No. But if Warde really believes in the staff, he could view Hart as his football Juwan Howard. A guy who would be embraced the fanbase, recruit like cray and put together a good staff. I'd put the odds at Hart coaching Michigan as higher than Harbaugh if we win less than 9 games this season.
3. If Harbaugh doesn't make it, I really believe the offense will do him in. Harbaugh tied himself to Gattis, and that could be his undoing. I've always thought that Harbaugh panicked in response to that 2018 OSU loss. Go back and look at that tape -- Michigan's offensive scheme was good enough that day to score 50+ points if we didn't have unforced errors like drops all over the field. Instead, Harbaugh hired a coach and employed a scheme that he doesn't believe in. To his credit, Harbaugh has been patient but this is definitely it for Gattis. If you look at the talent amassed on offense, Gattis should be under the gun to produce a top 20 offense this year. There isn't one position on offense that isn't filled with recruits that were Plan A or A- kids that UM desperately wanted. Most of the playes have been here multiple year. There are no excuses for this offense not to be very productive.
4. With all that said, I'm optimistic that we're going to be better than people think. I actually like our defensive personnel a lot and will predict that we finish in the top 25 nationally on defense. We have two guys that could be All-Americans if they hit their ceiling. Green came on at corner last year. The linebacking reports are encouraging. Obviously Mazi Smith is a huge key, but people forget that we had big issues up the middle two years ago, and still won 9 games. It wasn't like every team didn't try to run on us that year. Iowa did nothing. Yes, we will likely get gouged once or twice even if Mazi doesn't step up. But I don't see this defense giving up the big plays in the passing game that it did a year ago.
5. While Cade will play game one, I'd be surprised if he is the starter by November. Generally, the combination of a lower ceiling and injury prone almost inevitably loses out. The best case scenario for Michigan is McNamara is essentially a 2020 version of Major Applegate --a guy who people thought would be passed every year but was so productive that he started all four seasons. But for that to happen, McNamara needs to play well and Michigan has to win.
6. My season prediction is 9-3. I think we will beat Washington (home game against a West coast team that has offensive question is as ideal a matchup as you can get) and pull an upset against PSU. I'll peg losses against Wisconsin, Maryland and OSU.
