Once a champion is crowned on Monday night, there will be about a dozen top 25 preseason rankings hit the internet for the 2019 college football season. Athlon already released their list earlier today. I started to take a look at the numbers last night to get an idea of where Michigan will begin come 2019. The following factors were considered.....
Why stop at 15? The rest of the top 25 won't matter much toward the playoff.
TIER 1 - NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDERS
1) Alabama (1) - Offense (6) Defense (4) Top 150 (16). As usual the Tide lose a handful to graduation, a handful early to the NFL and bring in a boatload of impact freshmen. Bama also returns the frontrunner for the 2019 Heisman in Tua Tagovailoa.
2) Georgia (5) - Offense (7) Defense (7) Top 150 (10). Quarterback Jake Fromm is back and the team is working with recruiting classes in the top 3 each of the last 3 years.
3) Clemson (2) - Offense (8) Defense (5) Top 150 (7). Probably not a better quarterback/running back combo in the country next year than Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne. Unfortunately, they will lose all of that vaunted defensive line.
TIER 2 - COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF CONTENDERS
4) Oklahoma (4) - Offense (4) Defense (10) Top 150 (6). Kyler Murray is off to the Oakland Athletics, but Lincoln Riley has a lot of cred with two Heisman winners and two playoff bids in his two seasons as coach. Who will be the quarterback is the question, but they have a couple of solid options in Austin Kendall and Spencer Rattler. The defense returns nearly the whole group (is that a good thing?).
5) Ohio State (6) - Offense (4) Defense (10) Top 150 (7). If by some slim chance Dwayne Haskins returns, then this team moves up to #4 and tier 1, but that is doubtful. New coach Ryan Day will have a stacked roster, but will need a quarterback. Hopefully this will be a problem for them. Defense is loaded, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few declare early even with poor draft grades.
6) LSU (11) - Offense (8) Defense (7) Top 150 (8). These guys should be very good, but are they really playoff contenders when they have to play at Alabama next year? Nonetheless, they deserve to be ranked this high. Joe Burrow is more or less a Jake Rudock level quarterback, which is fine, but not enough to win a loaded SEC.
7) Florida (10) - Offense (6) Defense (7) Top 150 (2). Feleipe Franks had a very nice year for the Gators and will look to build upon that in 2019. Dan Mullen's crew is getting better, but unfortunately so is their primary foe, Georgia. Similar to LSU's problems in the west.
8) Michigan (7) - Offense (9) Defense (6) Top 150 (5). (Roster based off OSU game, assuming Hudson returns while all other early departures are known). I would have these guys at number six if they had beaten Florida. This team is good enough to make the college football playoff in 2019. This team is not good enough to win it all though.
9) Notre Dame (3) - Offense (6) Defense (6) Top 150 (4). Ian Book returns to lead this team in 2019. This will be solid club, but will get thumped again if they sneak into the playoffs.
10) Texas (15) - Offense (4) Defense (3) Top 150 (5). Sam Ehlinger returns but this team loses a lot of players including 11 senior starters and possibly 2 underclassmen to the draft. Fortunately they do have the #3 recruiting class from last year to start paying dividends. They will probably be a sexy pick after the win over Georgia, but I don't think they have the roster to push for top 5.
11) Central Florida (8) - Offense (9) Defense (5) Top 150 (0). If McKenzie Milton returns, then this team should be close to undefeated entering the bowl season. If he does not, then probably looking at a team in the bottom half of the top 25. Zero chance on this team being a playoff contender despite ranking them here.
12) Oregon (NR) - Offense (11) Defense (9) Top 150 (7). Not the greatest of teams in 2018, but they return nearly everyone and add a top 10 recruiting class with several impact freshmen.
13) Texas A/M (19) - Offense (7) Defense (6) Top 150 (7). Jimbo Fisher is bringing in an excellent recruiting class and has a solid returning roster. Life is tough though with Alabama and LSU in your division.
14) Utah (17) - Offense (9) Defense (7) Top 150 (0). Quarterback Tyler Huntley missed the last handful of games, but will return in 2019. Utes have a large amount of players returning.
15) Kentucky (14) - Offense (9) Defense (4) Top 150 (0). Benjamin Snell has given no indication of leaving for the NFL despite over 700 carries and 3800 yards. If he leaves, then Kentucky will drop a bit.
Just missed....
Penn State (12) - Offense (7) Defense (6) Top 150 (6). Slide out after all of the surprising departures from today.
Washington (9) - Offense (6) Defense (6) Top 150 (4). Jake Browning will be missed.
- Record and ranking from 2018. I downplayed the bowl game a bit and focused on a team's regular season. As an example, nobody believes Texas would be all that competitive with Alabama, yet the Longhorns performed better against the Dawgs than the Tide from a month ago.
- Returning starters on offense and defense. I looked at rosters from the final regular season game (not the bowl game as there were several players on several teams not playing). I did not have time to look at starters for every game. That is something for Phil Steele to spend a full month to chart. A returning quarterback is very important.
- I considered any player who is a 4th round draft pick or better as leaving to the NFL based off one mock draft. This is obviously a very fluid situation, but ultimately it shouldn't have too much of an impact. Example: team ranked #10 loses a second and third pick to the NFL early, probably drops them to #13 unless it is a quarterback.
- Incoming top 150 recruits using the 247 composite. When you are looking at top 15 teams, the lower four star recruits are not all that likely to make an impact as freshmen, hence the cut at 150.
Why stop at 15? The rest of the top 25 won't matter much toward the playoff.
TIER 1 - NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDERS
1) Alabama (1) - Offense (6) Defense (4) Top 150 (16). As usual the Tide lose a handful to graduation, a handful early to the NFL and bring in a boatload of impact freshmen. Bama also returns the frontrunner for the 2019 Heisman in Tua Tagovailoa.
2) Georgia (5) - Offense (7) Defense (7) Top 150 (10). Quarterback Jake Fromm is back and the team is working with recruiting classes in the top 3 each of the last 3 years.
3) Clemson (2) - Offense (8) Defense (5) Top 150 (7). Probably not a better quarterback/running back combo in the country next year than Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne. Unfortunately, they will lose all of that vaunted defensive line.
TIER 2 - COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF CONTENDERS
4) Oklahoma (4) - Offense (4) Defense (10) Top 150 (6). Kyler Murray is off to the Oakland Athletics, but Lincoln Riley has a lot of cred with two Heisman winners and two playoff bids in his two seasons as coach. Who will be the quarterback is the question, but they have a couple of solid options in Austin Kendall and Spencer Rattler. The defense returns nearly the whole group (is that a good thing?).
5) Ohio State (6) - Offense (4) Defense (10) Top 150 (7). If by some slim chance Dwayne Haskins returns, then this team moves up to #4 and tier 1, but that is doubtful. New coach Ryan Day will have a stacked roster, but will need a quarterback. Hopefully this will be a problem for them. Defense is loaded, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few declare early even with poor draft grades.
6) LSU (11) - Offense (8) Defense (7) Top 150 (8). These guys should be very good, but are they really playoff contenders when they have to play at Alabama next year? Nonetheless, they deserve to be ranked this high. Joe Burrow is more or less a Jake Rudock level quarterback, which is fine, but not enough to win a loaded SEC.
7) Florida (10) - Offense (6) Defense (7) Top 150 (2). Feleipe Franks had a very nice year for the Gators and will look to build upon that in 2019. Dan Mullen's crew is getting better, but unfortunately so is their primary foe, Georgia. Similar to LSU's problems in the west.
8) Michigan (7) - Offense (9) Defense (6) Top 150 (5). (Roster based off OSU game, assuming Hudson returns while all other early departures are known). I would have these guys at number six if they had beaten Florida. This team is good enough to make the college football playoff in 2019. This team is not good enough to win it all though.
9) Notre Dame (3) - Offense (6) Defense (6) Top 150 (4). Ian Book returns to lead this team in 2019. This will be solid club, but will get thumped again if they sneak into the playoffs.
10) Texas (15) - Offense (4) Defense (3) Top 150 (5). Sam Ehlinger returns but this team loses a lot of players including 11 senior starters and possibly 2 underclassmen to the draft. Fortunately they do have the #3 recruiting class from last year to start paying dividends. They will probably be a sexy pick after the win over Georgia, but I don't think they have the roster to push for top 5.
11) Central Florida (8) - Offense (9) Defense (5) Top 150 (0). If McKenzie Milton returns, then this team should be close to undefeated entering the bowl season. If he does not, then probably looking at a team in the bottom half of the top 25. Zero chance on this team being a playoff contender despite ranking them here.
12) Oregon (NR) - Offense (11) Defense (9) Top 150 (7). Not the greatest of teams in 2018, but they return nearly everyone and add a top 10 recruiting class with several impact freshmen.
13) Texas A/M (19) - Offense (7) Defense (6) Top 150 (7). Jimbo Fisher is bringing in an excellent recruiting class and has a solid returning roster. Life is tough though with Alabama and LSU in your division.
14) Utah (17) - Offense (9) Defense (7) Top 150 (0). Quarterback Tyler Huntley missed the last handful of games, but will return in 2019. Utes have a large amount of players returning.
15) Kentucky (14) - Offense (9) Defense (4) Top 150 (0). Benjamin Snell has given no indication of leaving for the NFL despite over 700 carries and 3800 yards. If he leaves, then Kentucky will drop a bit.
Just missed....
Penn State (12) - Offense (7) Defense (6) Top 150 (6). Slide out after all of the surprising departures from today.
Washington (9) - Offense (6) Defense (6) Top 150 (4). Jake Browning will be missed.
