1. So if you grade this season heading into Chicago, I think it almost has to be in two parts. If the grade is only based on the record, well its a D+/C-. I don't think anyone thought we would be struggling to get to .500 heading into the B1G tournament back in November. Now, are injuries a major part of that? Absolutely. However, when this team was still healthy they dropped games to NJIT and EMU. We also improbably threw away a game at Northwestern. If we had won those three games, we'd be 18-12, and solidly in the NIT, and frankly, that's the type of record this team should have had. Other than Ohio State, we really didn't win any games we weren't expected to win either with Caris or without him.
2. However, despite the disappointing record, I don't think this season feels at all like 2009-2010. That year, Michigan had a veteran team returning with two potential NBA prospects, was ranked in the top 20 to start the year and finished below .500. When Evan Turner hit the halfcourt miracle, there was very reason to be dour on the team's immediate prospects for the next couple years (which in retrospect was dead wrong). This is the youngest B1G roster, and we've seen our young guys make significant growth. Now we're poised to potentially add a veteran point (Walton), a 1st round pick (Levert), a first-team All-American at the DIII level (Robinson and a top international prospect. The future looks very bright for the next two years. . If Levert returns, I'll put our chances to win the league against anyone. Even if Caris leaves, I'm still convinced this is a top 25 team, upper level B1G team.
3. Next year won't be Beilein's best team, but I have no problem saying it will be his deepest. Since Beilein arrived here, we've always lost key guys each year (exception might be 2009, when we lost only CJ Lee and Merritt). Next season there will be fierce competition for minutes everywhere. You could make a case for someone to be the third leading scorer and someone else can plausibly argue that same guy won't play. To me, the guy that is important is DJ Wilson. Can he push Doyle at the 5? If not, can the German kid play there? Wilson is a high ceiling guy but I don't see him playing a lot at the 4 next year given our other options (Robinson, Chatman, even Irvin).
4. Another thing I'll look for next year is can we start better. The past two years we've really put ourselves in a hole in the non-conference. Two years ,we dug out of it in spectacular fashion by winning the B1G by 3 games, but last year we didn't. With so many guys back, including a veteran backcourt, I think we should be primed to start strong.
5. As far as the B1G tournament, those NW and Illinois losses hurt. If we were 10-8, we'd be the 7 seed and in much better shape for a run (I would take our chances against Maryland in Indy in front of a pro-Michigan crowd). Its hard to see us beating Wisconsin if we slip past Illinois (which I think we will).
6. The two most disappointing B1G teams this year were Minnesota and Nebraska.. The Huskers returned every key piece from a team that shocked the world in getting to the NCAA in Miles' second year (sounds a lot like Beilein's third year). Minnesota, on the other hand, went backwards. Remember this is a school which fired Tubby Smith after he made 3 NCAA trips in 6 years. Pitino is now for 0 for 2, and he loses his best player.
7. If there is a B1G team that has to win now, that team is Iowa. Sure, Wisconsin has big expectations but they did make the Final 4 last year. Iowa has closed strong, but this is a team which has been in place for three years and is likely to take a significant step back in 2016. McCaffrey doesn't have a Final 4 team, but he could get to the Sweet 16.
This post was edited on 3/9 11:44 AM by MiamiWolv
This post was edited on 3/9 1:45 PM by MiamiWolv
2. However, despite the disappointing record, I don't think this season feels at all like 2009-2010. That year, Michigan had a veteran team returning with two potential NBA prospects, was ranked in the top 20 to start the year and finished below .500. When Evan Turner hit the halfcourt miracle, there was very reason to be dour on the team's immediate prospects for the next couple years (which in retrospect was dead wrong). This is the youngest B1G roster, and we've seen our young guys make significant growth. Now we're poised to potentially add a veteran point (Walton), a 1st round pick (Levert), a first-team All-American at the DIII level (Robinson and a top international prospect. The future looks very bright for the next two years. . If Levert returns, I'll put our chances to win the league against anyone. Even if Caris leaves, I'm still convinced this is a top 25 team, upper level B1G team.
3. Next year won't be Beilein's best team, but I have no problem saying it will be his deepest. Since Beilein arrived here, we've always lost key guys each year (exception might be 2009, when we lost only CJ Lee and Merritt). Next season there will be fierce competition for minutes everywhere. You could make a case for someone to be the third leading scorer and someone else can plausibly argue that same guy won't play. To me, the guy that is important is DJ Wilson. Can he push Doyle at the 5? If not, can the German kid play there? Wilson is a high ceiling guy but I don't see him playing a lot at the 4 next year given our other options (Robinson, Chatman, even Irvin).
4. Another thing I'll look for next year is can we start better. The past two years we've really put ourselves in a hole in the non-conference. Two years ,we dug out of it in spectacular fashion by winning the B1G by 3 games, but last year we didn't. With so many guys back, including a veteran backcourt, I think we should be primed to start strong.
5. As far as the B1G tournament, those NW and Illinois losses hurt. If we were 10-8, we'd be the 7 seed and in much better shape for a run (I would take our chances against Maryland in Indy in front of a pro-Michigan crowd). Its hard to see us beating Wisconsin if we slip past Illinois (which I think we will).
6. The two most disappointing B1G teams this year were Minnesota and Nebraska.. The Huskers returned every key piece from a team that shocked the world in getting to the NCAA in Miles' second year (sounds a lot like Beilein's third year). Minnesota, on the other hand, went backwards. Remember this is a school which fired Tubby Smith after he made 3 NCAA trips in 6 years. Pitino is now for 0 for 2, and he loses his best player.
7. If there is a B1G team that has to win now, that team is Iowa. Sure, Wisconsin has big expectations but they did make the Final 4 last year. Iowa has closed strong, but this is a team which has been in place for three years and is likely to take a significant step back in 2016. McCaffrey doesn't have a Final 4 team, but he could get to the Sweet 16.
This post was edited on 3/9 11:44 AM by MiamiWolv
This post was edited on 3/9 1:45 PM by MiamiWolv
