Looking back on Michigan basketball's regular season ... and it was a weird one.
It's rare that a team goes through a Big Ten season that's not a roller coaster ride. Teams have bumps in the road in the tougher portions of the schedule, especially, and it was the same for every conference team this year. Michigan State seemed to be out of contention when they hit their turbulence in February. Maryland's came a bit later and cost them the outright Big Ten title, while Wisconsin started 5-5 before finishing 9-1 in the second half.
The one thing the tri-champs all had in common?
They won at home.
The Badgers lost once, a one-point setback to Illinois. MSU lost twice, which you can get away with in a year in which six losses shares the title (and given them credit — they came up with two huge road wins at Penn State and Maryland down the stretch), and Maryland lost only to the Spartans.
You can't lose four games at home in the conference and contend, period. Injuries played a part, of course, but as Wisconsin head coach Greg Gard said after his team beat Michigan at Crisler Arena, that's part of it. Every team goes through it, and he lost one of his better players in Kobe King (transfer to Nebraska) early in the year, while Iowa, for example, lost CJ Fredrick for a long stretch and Jordan Bohannon for half the year to injuries.
Michigan's roster was depleted by unexpected attrition with Jordan Poole and Ignas Brazdeikis leaving, and while Poole was somewhat addition by subtraction (a former U-M captain actually got into it with one of his family members last year at a game when the team was winning but Poole's people felt he wasn't "being used correctly"), it left a void at his position.
Adrien Nunez wasn't the answer, obviously, and as MHoops1 and others have noted, they need more guards going forward. That means more than just five-star Josh Christopher (should he come, as expected). There's a balance head coach Juwan Howard still has to strike here in finding three- or four-year guys in addition to the one-and-dones, because he doesn't want to (and, frankly, won't be able to) turn the roster over with McDonald's All-Americans every year.
This is a tough balance. Kids want to go where they're going to play. But extending offers to in-starters Pierre Brooks and Jaden Akins, for example, was a good move. These are guys who are going to be in college for a while.
But back to the season ...
Franz Wagner's injury came at the right time as injuries go, and the Wolverines started strong without him. Isaiah Livers' injury was a killer, though, for one big reason — sophomore Brandon Johns was just way too inconsistent. The top-60 standout made a move, but if he'd played even half as well as he did in the Rutgers game at Madison Square Garden, for example, U-M would have won a few more games. He finally got better defensively, one of the big things costing him playing time early in the year, but he lost confidence in his shot.
He wasn't just missing; he was missing by three feet, and that's a sign that it's in his head, especially when he's missing his free throws, too.
We were more bullish on this team than some at the beginning of the year, and that was the result of having one of the most prolific — even with his limitations – point guards and leaders in Michigan history on the roster in Zavier Simpson. As he said after Brazdeikis and Poole left, he wasn't worried.
"You know me. I'm going to win no matter who you put around me," he said (paraphrasing), also noting there was good, young talent and a bunch of four-stars around him.
He'd gotten more out of senior center Jon Teske than anyone thought possible in his three years — Teske himself credited Simpson for his confidence and development, noting Simpson was as important to both as anything or anyone — add Livers to that trio and get more out of junior Eli Brooks, Colin Castleton, Johns, etc., and you had a pretty good team.
We saw it in November and again in the five-game winning streak in February. And if you'd looked at the postseason numbers before the season started and took them at face value, you'd probably have thought the Wolverines could contend (unless you looked strictly at the Big Ten numbers ... then you'd know. Livers and Brooks, for example, both shot under 31.5 percent from long range).
Simpson, though, for as good as he was at times, took a step backward defensively and with his turnovers. He was careless with the ball and turned it over at a 3.2-per game pace. His assists went up, but so did his "pick-sixes" that really cost them in one-possession games.
His free throw shooting, too, has been abysmal. In tight games, those are difference makers. Every possession and every point counts.
We still can't explain Teske's regression, other than they certainly seemed too stubborn at times in feeding him inside when it was clear he was struggling. There was a reason he wasn't asked to post much in his first three years. He just wasn't rebounding at the end of the year, either, and he's got to be much better in that area going forward.
As for Howard ... he's just getting started. To compare him to a future Hall of Fame coach and expect him to meet that standard in his first year as a head coach wouldn't be fair. He had some great moments, of course, and areas in which did a great job. Inbounds plays, for example, led to buckets several times, much more than they did in recent previous seasons. He helped make redshirt junior Austin Davis a serviceable offensive player.
At the same time, there are areas in which it's clear he's still learning. His substitutions at the ends of halves early in the year erased leads that could have helped them win games (at Minnesota, for example). His unwillingness to give Teske help in the post led to career days by two or three conference big men ... he adjusted later in the year, but then it was guards who had career days.
Some of that can be chalked up to bad luck, probably, but guys like Wisconsin's D'Mitrik Trice and Ohio State's CJ Walker and Duane Washington Jr. got way too comfortable. Part of it was the match-up issues with big men who can shoot spreading the floor, but there were way too many career games from too many guys (throw MSU's Cassius Winston in there in the first meeting with MSU), and season-high point totals for teams against the Wolverines, to not raise red flags.
Only a horrible Nebraska team and maybe Indiana, whose head coach employed one of the dumber strategies at Michigan we'd seen all year, allowed as many points as U-M did to Wisconsin, for example, and Maryland "hadn't had a scoring output like that in a while," head coach Mark Turgeon noted after his team put up 83 on the Wolverines (it had been since early December).
They need to figure some things out defensively to make a run in the postseason. And if they continue to shoot as poorly as they have from long range, it will be a short run, regardless.
So we're in the same position we were at the beginning of the year, in wait and see mode. You can't judge a coach or his program in just one or two seasons, obviously, good or bad. Coach K. at Duke and Kevin Ollie at UConn are examples of that, in opposite ways.
We do know coaches are judged by what they do in the postseason, though, fair or not. There's a lot of postseason experience on this roster, and we should expect guys like Simpson, Teske and Livers to up their games knowing what it takes to advance. That's the hope, anyway.
Get a few good match-ups and some confidence and this team can compete.
We'll find out starting Thursday at noon just how badly these guys want it.
It's rare that a team goes through a Big Ten season that's not a roller coaster ride. Teams have bumps in the road in the tougher portions of the schedule, especially, and it was the same for every conference team this year. Michigan State seemed to be out of contention when they hit their turbulence in February. Maryland's came a bit later and cost them the outright Big Ten title, while Wisconsin started 5-5 before finishing 9-1 in the second half.
The one thing the tri-champs all had in common?
They won at home.
The Badgers lost once, a one-point setback to Illinois. MSU lost twice, which you can get away with in a year in which six losses shares the title (and given them credit — they came up with two huge road wins at Penn State and Maryland down the stretch), and Maryland lost only to the Spartans.
You can't lose four games at home in the conference and contend, period. Injuries played a part, of course, but as Wisconsin head coach Greg Gard said after his team beat Michigan at Crisler Arena, that's part of it. Every team goes through it, and he lost one of his better players in Kobe King (transfer to Nebraska) early in the year, while Iowa, for example, lost CJ Fredrick for a long stretch and Jordan Bohannon for half the year to injuries.
Michigan's roster was depleted by unexpected attrition with Jordan Poole and Ignas Brazdeikis leaving, and while Poole was somewhat addition by subtraction (a former U-M captain actually got into it with one of his family members last year at a game when the team was winning but Poole's people felt he wasn't "being used correctly"), it left a void at his position.
Adrien Nunez wasn't the answer, obviously, and as MHoops1 and others have noted, they need more guards going forward. That means more than just five-star Josh Christopher (should he come, as expected). There's a balance head coach Juwan Howard still has to strike here in finding three- or four-year guys in addition to the one-and-dones, because he doesn't want to (and, frankly, won't be able to) turn the roster over with McDonald's All-Americans every year.
This is a tough balance. Kids want to go where they're going to play. But extending offers to in-starters Pierre Brooks and Jaden Akins, for example, was a good move. These are guys who are going to be in college for a while.
But back to the season ...
Franz Wagner's injury came at the right time as injuries go, and the Wolverines started strong without him. Isaiah Livers' injury was a killer, though, for one big reason — sophomore Brandon Johns was just way too inconsistent. The top-60 standout made a move, but if he'd played even half as well as he did in the Rutgers game at Madison Square Garden, for example, U-M would have won a few more games. He finally got better defensively, one of the big things costing him playing time early in the year, but he lost confidence in his shot.
He wasn't just missing; he was missing by three feet, and that's a sign that it's in his head, especially when he's missing his free throws, too.
We were more bullish on this team than some at the beginning of the year, and that was the result of having one of the most prolific — even with his limitations – point guards and leaders in Michigan history on the roster in Zavier Simpson. As he said after Brazdeikis and Poole left, he wasn't worried.
"You know me. I'm going to win no matter who you put around me," he said (paraphrasing), also noting there was good, young talent and a bunch of four-stars around him.
He'd gotten more out of senior center Jon Teske than anyone thought possible in his three years — Teske himself credited Simpson for his confidence and development, noting Simpson was as important to both as anything or anyone — add Livers to that trio and get more out of junior Eli Brooks, Colin Castleton, Johns, etc., and you had a pretty good team.
We saw it in November and again in the five-game winning streak in February. And if you'd looked at the postseason numbers before the season started and took them at face value, you'd probably have thought the Wolverines could contend (unless you looked strictly at the Big Ten numbers ... then you'd know. Livers and Brooks, for example, both shot under 31.5 percent from long range).
Simpson, though, for as good as he was at times, took a step backward defensively and with his turnovers. He was careless with the ball and turned it over at a 3.2-per game pace. His assists went up, but so did his "pick-sixes" that really cost them in one-possession games.
His free throw shooting, too, has been abysmal. In tight games, those are difference makers. Every possession and every point counts.
We still can't explain Teske's regression, other than they certainly seemed too stubborn at times in feeding him inside when it was clear he was struggling. There was a reason he wasn't asked to post much in his first three years. He just wasn't rebounding at the end of the year, either, and he's got to be much better in that area going forward.
As for Howard ... he's just getting started. To compare him to a future Hall of Fame coach and expect him to meet that standard in his first year as a head coach wouldn't be fair. He had some great moments, of course, and areas in which did a great job. Inbounds plays, for example, led to buckets several times, much more than they did in recent previous seasons. He helped make redshirt junior Austin Davis a serviceable offensive player.
At the same time, there are areas in which it's clear he's still learning. His substitutions at the ends of halves early in the year erased leads that could have helped them win games (at Minnesota, for example). His unwillingness to give Teske help in the post led to career days by two or three conference big men ... he adjusted later in the year, but then it was guards who had career days.
Some of that can be chalked up to bad luck, probably, but guys like Wisconsin's D'Mitrik Trice and Ohio State's CJ Walker and Duane Washington Jr. got way too comfortable. Part of it was the match-up issues with big men who can shoot spreading the floor, but there were way too many career games from too many guys (throw MSU's Cassius Winston in there in the first meeting with MSU), and season-high point totals for teams against the Wolverines, to not raise red flags.
Only a horrible Nebraska team and maybe Indiana, whose head coach employed one of the dumber strategies at Michigan we'd seen all year, allowed as many points as U-M did to Wisconsin, for example, and Maryland "hadn't had a scoring output like that in a while," head coach Mark Turgeon noted after his team put up 83 on the Wolverines (it had been since early December).
They need to figure some things out defensively to make a run in the postseason. And if they continue to shoot as poorly as they have from long range, it will be a short run, regardless.
So we're in the same position we were at the beginning of the year, in wait and see mode. You can't judge a coach or his program in just one or two seasons, obviously, good or bad. Coach K. at Duke and Kevin Ollie at UConn are examples of that, in opposite ways.
We do know coaches are judged by what they do in the postseason, though, fair or not. There's a lot of postseason experience on this roster, and we should expect guys like Simpson, Teske and Livers to up their games knowing what it takes to advance. That's the hope, anyway.
Get a few good match-ups and some confidence and this team can compete.
We'll find out starting Thursday at noon just how badly these guys want it.
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