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After clinching the SEC East on Saturday with its win over No. 9 Kentucky, No. 6 Georgia already knows it will face No. 1 Alabama in the conference championship game, but the Bulldogs have no idea where that accomplishment puts them in the eyes of the College Football Playoff selection committee heading into the second official ranking of the season.
Not that they're concerned about it.
"There's not anybody on our team who's worrying about anything but Auburn, because that's the next task at hand," coach Kirby Smart said at his Monday news conference. "That's what we have to be focused on. Our goal is to play the next team, whoever the next team is. We don't try to have too many real big highs or real big lows. We want to stay right neutral in the middle."
At least until it comes to Selection Day -- then they'd prefer to be at the top.
The biggest question Tuesday is whether the Bulldogs are already in the committee's top four or whether Michigan is as much of a given for the No. 4 spot as many seem to think.
On paper, Georgia and Michigan are extremely even, which means it could come down to the game film in Selection Central.
Chase Winovich said Saturday after the No. 5 Wolverines' 42-7 win over No. 14 Penn State. "That's not a controversial statement. I think that's a fact at this point."
ESPN's Strength of Record metric has been one of the most reliable indicators of semifinalists, as 15 of the past 16 teams that have gone to the playoff -- including all 12 teams the past three years -- ranked in the top four of SOR entering bowl season. Georgia (No. 4 in SOR) and Michigan (No. 5) are almost identical. The average top-25 team would have a 12.5 percent chance to go 8-1 or better against Georgia's schedule and a 12.6 percent chance to go 8-1 or better against Michigan's schedule.
Both teams are 2-1 against likely CFP top-25 teams (assuming Michigan State moves into the rankings this week and Penn State doesn't drop out). Georgia will have had back-to-back wins against 7-2 Kentucky and 6-3 Florida, which should both be ranked.
Georgia has four wins against Power 5 opponents with winning records; Michigan has five. The Wolverines are No. 3 in defensive efficiency; Georgia is No. 4. The Bulldogs have an edge in offense (No. 3 in efficiency vs. No. 15), but Michigan has the edge in nonconference strength of schedule (35th vs. 107th).
So which one is the best team?
That's what ESPN's Football Power Index aims to answer, and even that is close: Georgia is No. 3, and Michigan is No. 4 by a margin of just 1.2 percentage points.
Before you assume Tuesday's ranking will be as easy as 1. Alabama, 2. Clemson, 3. Notre Dame ... that might be where the obvious answers end. And the debate between Michigan and Georgia for the No. 4 spot isn't the only question for the committee. Here are a few others.
After clinching the SEC East on Saturday with its win over No. 9 Kentucky, No. 6 Georgia already knows it will face No. 1 Alabama in the conference championship game, but the Bulldogs have no idea where that accomplishment puts them in the eyes of the College Football Playoff selection committee heading into the second official ranking of the season.
Not that they're concerned about it.
"There's not anybody on our team who's worrying about anything but Auburn, because that's the next task at hand," coach Kirby Smart said at his Monday news conference. "That's what we have to be focused on. Our goal is to play the next team, whoever the next team is. We don't try to have too many real big highs or real big lows. We want to stay right neutral in the middle."
At least until it comes to Selection Day -- then they'd prefer to be at the top.
The biggest question Tuesday is whether the Bulldogs are already in the committee's top four or whether Michigan is as much of a given for the No. 4 spot as many seem to think.
On paper, Georgia and Michigan are extremely even, which means it could come down to the game film in Selection Central.
Chase Winovich said Saturday after the No. 5 Wolverines' 42-7 win over No. 14 Penn State. "That's not a controversial statement. I think that's a fact at this point."
ESPN's Strength of Record metric has been one of the most reliable indicators of semifinalists, as 15 of the past 16 teams that have gone to the playoff -- including all 12 teams the past three years -- ranked in the top four of SOR entering bowl season. Georgia (No. 4 in SOR) and Michigan (No. 5) are almost identical. The average top-25 team would have a 12.5 percent chance to go 8-1 or better against Georgia's schedule and a 12.6 percent chance to go 8-1 or better against Michigan's schedule.
Both teams are 2-1 against likely CFP top-25 teams (assuming Michigan State moves into the rankings this week and Penn State doesn't drop out). Georgia will have had back-to-back wins against 7-2 Kentucky and 6-3 Florida, which should both be ranked.
Georgia has four wins against Power 5 opponents with winning records; Michigan has five. The Wolverines are No. 3 in defensive efficiency; Georgia is No. 4. The Bulldogs have an edge in offense (No. 3 in efficiency vs. No. 15), but Michigan has the edge in nonconference strength of schedule (35th vs. 107th).
So which one is the best team?
That's what ESPN's Football Power Index aims to answer, and even that is close: Georgia is No. 3, and Michigan is No. 4 by a margin of just 1.2 percentage points.
Before you assume Tuesday's ranking will be as easy as 1. Alabama, 2. Clemson, 3. Notre Dame ... that might be where the obvious answers end. And the debate between Michigan and Georgia for the No. 4 spot isn't the only question for the committee. Here are a few others.
