Ohio State is in for a rude awakening versus Michigan. Yep, I said it.
I've made posts on the old board about Don Brown being the worst thing for UM football since Rich Rod and maybe the single biggest problem with Michigan football ever. That's because Brown created a four year perception that the difference between UM and OSU should be judged by the 62 and 59 points Brown's defenses gave up in 2018 and 19. That Michigan's PROGRAM should be judged by the wide gap in the scores of two games that happened 2 and 3 years ago. That's grade school thinking. I get it that "you are what the score says you are", but it's still grade school thinking. Brown was a cancer to Michigan football. He did more than give up an unthinkable 121 points in two games ( you have to be historically bad to give up 121 points in two games. Brown was a cancer. And if we are ever going to get over Ohio State, it starts with understanding DON BROWN WAS THE PROBLEM); bigger than that is he screwed up the psyche of Michigan football. The Coaches, players, fanbase, the public, the media, all of it. He created a bad psychology about Michigan and that perception is all on him. And thankfully now he's gone....
Brown and Day were a match made in heaven for OSU. And a nightmare for us.... And turncoat Mattison didn't help our cause. Brown's scheme might've worked against Meyer's offense, but it was awful for the Day offense where OSU had switched from Braxton Miller running type QBs, to Day's passing attack. The more I dig into the numbers the more I realize how bad Brown sucked.
In the 2019 GAME OSU had at least EIGHT PLAYS of 25 yards or more. Including two 15 yard personal fouls, they had 13 plays of 15 yards or more against Michigan.
57 TD, 47, 41, 41, 34, 33 TD, 30 TD, 28, 21, 16 TD, 15 and two 15 yard personal fouls.
I looked up 2018 and it was just as bad. When I tout the success Michigan has had under Harbaugh, I know that Don Brown was a big part of those wins. But against Day the DUDE was honestly a joke and not worthy of a headset in that environment. To give up 8 plays of 25 or more is the mark of an awful coach. Especially after doing it the year before in 2018. And in 2018 when you have a roster full of pros, it's inexcusable. (2019 too. FYI Hutch led the team in tackles in 2019. But That team had Paye and Uche and Dana and other pros too). Brown was atrocious and is the sole cause of the belief that we are not at OSU's level.
So the question then becomes: Well if it's all Don Brown's fault, why is OSU doing it versus Minnesota, IU and Maryland? OSU must be great!
The answer is that the talent gap is so wide in those games, they can do what they want. Here are the recruiting numbers.
Ohio State 45 points v. Minnesota --- From 2016-2021 Ohio State has 109 4 and 5 star recruits. Minnesota has 10 four star recruits from 2016-2021.
Ohio State 52-13 vs. Rutgers --- From 2016-2021 109 4/5 to 7 four star recruits
Ohio State 66-17 vs. Maryland 109 to 28.
Ohio 54-7 v. IU 109 to 6.
Ohio 59-31 v. Purdue 109 to 11.
Michigan will not show up at home for THE GAME operating at that kind of talent differential. There will essentially be no relevant talent differential. And that is something we all need to start understanding. Their schemes are much better....their talent is not. Their mentality is much better....their talent is not. Donovan Peeples-Jones for Ohio State is Olave or Wilson. DPJ is humping in the league. Nico Collins? League. Ohio State did not have better wide receivers than Michigan in 2018 or 19 but thanks to Don Brown, it looked like it.
From 2016 - 2021 Michigan has signed more players than any other B10 school. 147. It's a real trend but the best teams have signed the most players. UM 147 players. OSU 137. Nebraska (who is the number 4 recuiter in the conference...shocking they are so bad) 137. PSU 126. Wisc has signed 123 players. I can only guess that when you get to Michigan or OSU, it becomes clear in practice if you are at that elite level. And either you see the writing on the wall and transfer out to a place you can play....or get run off. Or if you stick, then you're really good. I think that being able to recruit so many more guys is a luxury. It means that they can get kids in, evaluate them, see if they are elite, and run them off to the portal if they are not good enough. Compared to Michigan's 147 the bottom three recruiting teams have signed 110, 108 and 105 players over the same time period. When you get to get eyes on 40 more players inside your building at the four/high three star level, you're just going to be way better than these bottom end teams.
I have more numbers and this is a deeper analysis, but here are the B10's top recruiters 1) OSU; 2) Michigan; 3) PSU; 4) Nebraska.....Ohio State struggled in their games against 3 and 4. And the other high end recruiter they played, Oregon, they lost to. OSU struggled with PSU and Neb and Michigan's recruiting is head and shoulders above Nebraska and above PSU.
Just for the numbers and to play with you folks a bit. OSU has 87 four star recruits to Michigan's 78. Same time period 2016-2021....i.e. guys who are playing in these games now.
FOUR STAR RECRUITS Big 10 conference 2016-2021
OSU 87
UM 78
PSU 64
NEB 37
MD 27
MSU 19
WIS 18
IOWA 13.
Once you start getting into the teens and single digits for 4 star talent over the course of SIX YEARS, it's not a fair fight. So of course OSU is killing those teams.
I understand the idea that many of those guys don't work out or transfer out. Drew Singleton, Jordan Anthony, and McCaffrey come to mind as guys who didn't stay. But when you can replace them with more four star talent, the advantage is great vs. teams who just don't recruit to that high end UM level. Yes you lose Singleton and Anthony at LB, but those open scholarships land you a Junior Colson. And you're getting the best 3 star Haskins and Ojabo type 3* talent in the league....I'll talk about that in another post.
All of this is a long winded way to say, Michigan is going to be by far the most talented team OSU plays. BY FAR. And we were as talented as them in 2018. In 2018-2019 a garbage scheme by a garbage DC gave up explosive plays over and over. Michigan will not be gifting Ohio State explosive plays via a bad scheme. And Michigan, unlike these other in conference OSU blow outs, won't be at a RELEVANT talent deficient.
Michigan will NOT give up 8 plays over 25 yards that results in 50 points in this game. Don Brown is gone. Michigan is more disciplined, click here:
www.teamrankings.com
So turnovers and penalties will be important too.
This is going to be a tight game and Michigan is going to win. Periodttt.
I've made posts on the old board about Don Brown being the worst thing for UM football since Rich Rod and maybe the single biggest problem with Michigan football ever. That's because Brown created a four year perception that the difference between UM and OSU should be judged by the 62 and 59 points Brown's defenses gave up in 2018 and 19. That Michigan's PROGRAM should be judged by the wide gap in the scores of two games that happened 2 and 3 years ago. That's grade school thinking. I get it that "you are what the score says you are", but it's still grade school thinking. Brown was a cancer to Michigan football. He did more than give up an unthinkable 121 points in two games ( you have to be historically bad to give up 121 points in two games. Brown was a cancer. And if we are ever going to get over Ohio State, it starts with understanding DON BROWN WAS THE PROBLEM); bigger than that is he screwed up the psyche of Michigan football. The Coaches, players, fanbase, the public, the media, all of it. He created a bad psychology about Michigan and that perception is all on him. And thankfully now he's gone....
Brown and Day were a match made in heaven for OSU. And a nightmare for us.... And turncoat Mattison didn't help our cause. Brown's scheme might've worked against Meyer's offense, but it was awful for the Day offense where OSU had switched from Braxton Miller running type QBs, to Day's passing attack. The more I dig into the numbers the more I realize how bad Brown sucked.
In the 2019 GAME OSU had at least EIGHT PLAYS of 25 yards or more. Including two 15 yard personal fouls, they had 13 plays of 15 yards or more against Michigan.
57 TD, 47, 41, 41, 34, 33 TD, 30 TD, 28, 21, 16 TD, 15 and two 15 yard personal fouls.
I looked up 2018 and it was just as bad. When I tout the success Michigan has had under Harbaugh, I know that Don Brown was a big part of those wins. But against Day the DUDE was honestly a joke and not worthy of a headset in that environment. To give up 8 plays of 25 or more is the mark of an awful coach. Especially after doing it the year before in 2018. And in 2018 when you have a roster full of pros, it's inexcusable. (2019 too. FYI Hutch led the team in tackles in 2019. But That team had Paye and Uche and Dana and other pros too). Brown was atrocious and is the sole cause of the belief that we are not at OSU's level.
So the question then becomes: Well if it's all Don Brown's fault, why is OSU doing it versus Minnesota, IU and Maryland? OSU must be great!
The answer is that the talent gap is so wide in those games, they can do what they want. Here are the recruiting numbers.
Ohio State 45 points v. Minnesota --- From 2016-2021 Ohio State has 109 4 and 5 star recruits. Minnesota has 10 four star recruits from 2016-2021.
Ohio State 52-13 vs. Rutgers --- From 2016-2021 109 4/5 to 7 four star recruits
Ohio State 66-17 vs. Maryland 109 to 28.
Ohio 54-7 v. IU 109 to 6.
Ohio 59-31 v. Purdue 109 to 11.
Michigan will not show up at home for THE GAME operating at that kind of talent differential. There will essentially be no relevant talent differential. And that is something we all need to start understanding. Their schemes are much better....their talent is not. Their mentality is much better....their talent is not. Donovan Peeples-Jones for Ohio State is Olave or Wilson. DPJ is humping in the league. Nico Collins? League. Ohio State did not have better wide receivers than Michigan in 2018 or 19 but thanks to Don Brown, it looked like it.
From 2016 - 2021 Michigan has signed more players than any other B10 school. 147. It's a real trend but the best teams have signed the most players. UM 147 players. OSU 137. Nebraska (who is the number 4 recuiter in the conference...shocking they are so bad) 137. PSU 126. Wisc has signed 123 players. I can only guess that when you get to Michigan or OSU, it becomes clear in practice if you are at that elite level. And either you see the writing on the wall and transfer out to a place you can play....or get run off. Or if you stick, then you're really good. I think that being able to recruit so many more guys is a luxury. It means that they can get kids in, evaluate them, see if they are elite, and run them off to the portal if they are not good enough. Compared to Michigan's 147 the bottom three recruiting teams have signed 110, 108 and 105 players over the same time period. When you get to get eyes on 40 more players inside your building at the four/high three star level, you're just going to be way better than these bottom end teams.
I have more numbers and this is a deeper analysis, but here are the B10's top recruiters 1) OSU; 2) Michigan; 3) PSU; 4) Nebraska.....Ohio State struggled in their games against 3 and 4. And the other high end recruiter they played, Oregon, they lost to. OSU struggled with PSU and Neb and Michigan's recruiting is head and shoulders above Nebraska and above PSU.
Just for the numbers and to play with you folks a bit. OSU has 87 four star recruits to Michigan's 78. Same time period 2016-2021....i.e. guys who are playing in these games now.
FOUR STAR RECRUITS Big 10 conference 2016-2021
OSU 87
UM 78
PSU 64
NEB 37
MD 27
MSU 19
WIS 18
IOWA 13.
Once you start getting into the teens and single digits for 4 star talent over the course of SIX YEARS, it's not a fair fight. So of course OSU is killing those teams.
I understand the idea that many of those guys don't work out or transfer out. Drew Singleton, Jordan Anthony, and McCaffrey come to mind as guys who didn't stay. But when you can replace them with more four star talent, the advantage is great vs. teams who just don't recruit to that high end UM level. Yes you lose Singleton and Anthony at LB, but those open scholarships land you a Junior Colson. And you're getting the best 3 star Haskins and Ojabo type 3* talent in the league....I'll talk about that in another post.
All of this is a long winded way to say, Michigan is going to be by far the most talented team OSU plays. BY FAR. And we were as talented as them in 2018. In 2018-2019 a garbage scheme by a garbage DC gave up explosive plays over and over. Michigan will not be gifting Ohio State explosive plays via a bad scheme. And Michigan, unlike these other in conference OSU blow outs, won't be at a RELEVANT talent deficient.
Michigan will NOT give up 8 plays over 25 yards that results in 50 points in this game. Don Brown is gone. Michigan is more disciplined, click here:
College Football Stats - College FB Team Penalties per Game | TeamRankings.com
College Football penalties per game, by team.
So turnovers and penalties will be important too.
This is going to be a tight game and Michigan is going to win. Periodttt.
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