Two years ago I said that Michigan was going to go on a three game winning streak vs. Ohio St. And if Jim Harbaugh was on the sidelines this Saturday, I think predicting a double digit win would be reasonable.
So what happens Saturday? The fuel to high performance in an athlete is confidence. When I was competing for Michigan, I ran best when I was highly confident that I was ready. And conditions were optimal...Jim being gone makes it not optimal. The biggest concern with Jim being gone is whether it creates nervousness and a lack of confidence during the game. I was at Maryland and at times you could feel that nervous energy. Thus, the key to the game is a great first 10-12 minutes that keeps the crowd in the game. The team that gains early momentum has a huge advantage.
Back in 2021 when I countered the argument that everyone was making about Ohio State's "talent gap" by saying that OSU was soft, some of that came to fruition obviously. But the next true observation is....and over the last year I've called it the Ryan Day Rot, but Ryan Day is just a different version of Don Brown. Meaning, he will beat you with aggression when he has more talent. And he can do that running a college scheme.
Back to psychology for a second. Ryan Day is easily frustrated. He will often say it to the sideline reporter going into halftime. He's so used to being able to run up the score with better talent, in really what is a shit B10 conference, that when he has to play a close football game, it's hard on him...you see it in his body language, and I think a team takes on the personality of it's coach. And Day's personality is as a front runner. That hang a hundred comment was the most significant thing to turn the tide of this rivalry. It's the equivalent of calling Michigan a bitch to it's face. That is going to go over poorly. And when Michigan fired Brown (a year later than it should have) and went to a NFL scheme, everything changed.
NFL Week 10 and 11, these numbers of points won games:
16, 10, 23, 20, 25, 16, 24, 13, 21, 20, 17, 21, 21.
That's 13 games won with 25 or fewer points. Three games were won with 16 points or less. Four won in the teens. 13 and 10 points won games. The Jets beat the Eagles this year. So when Michigan went to an NFL scheme, it was looking at THE GAME not as a college game anymore, like it was under Don Brown, who was running a talent gap based college scheme. Michigan went to an NFL scheme where teams are not scoring 62 and 59 points ever. We all know this. But what is noteworthy is that Ohio State has not shown any adaptation.....they still can't run it well on 3rd and short. And their run pass balance is always out of balance in favor of the pass.
Ryan Day is a college coach who abandons balance because he gets frustrated easily. And when faced with an NFL style game, he can't outcoach it. Because by running up the score in the past, he's made it look like OSU is better than they are. And then when Michigan comes and comes punching they are not used to it. And have not ever been used to winning games on Defense.
That condition remains the same. Day, his players, the OSU fanbase, and the Michigan fanbase after the Don Brown PTSD 62 and 59 point games, believe OSU is something that they are not under Day. And TBH it has worked out for them. They are somehow ranked above Michigan despite showing far less. And that illusion got them into the CFP last year.
But Ryan Day is the Rot of OSU football. Get your cigar ready and your favorite celebratory drink. If Michigan starts from ahead and keeps the crowd in the game, it could be another double digit win. Keep their confidence up. But Michigan needed to change coaches at DC or else Don Brown was never going to beat OSU. Comparatively, OSU has changed nothing....they are not going to beat Michigan at Michigan trying the same stuff they did the last two years losing by 22 and 17. The best thing we can hope for is for Day not to get fired.
Michigan wins again on Saturday. For as much as I worry about UM getting jobbed by the B10 and suspending Jim. Our guys only know beating OSU. I think UM is veteran enough to still do it. Go Blue!
So what happens Saturday? The fuel to high performance in an athlete is confidence. When I was competing for Michigan, I ran best when I was highly confident that I was ready. And conditions were optimal...Jim being gone makes it not optimal. The biggest concern with Jim being gone is whether it creates nervousness and a lack of confidence during the game. I was at Maryland and at times you could feel that nervous energy. Thus, the key to the game is a great first 10-12 minutes that keeps the crowd in the game. The team that gains early momentum has a huge advantage.
Back in 2021 when I countered the argument that everyone was making about Ohio State's "talent gap" by saying that OSU was soft, some of that came to fruition obviously. But the next true observation is....and over the last year I've called it the Ryan Day Rot, but Ryan Day is just a different version of Don Brown. Meaning, he will beat you with aggression when he has more talent. And he can do that running a college scheme.
Back to psychology for a second. Ryan Day is easily frustrated. He will often say it to the sideline reporter going into halftime. He's so used to being able to run up the score with better talent, in really what is a shit B10 conference, that when he has to play a close football game, it's hard on him...you see it in his body language, and I think a team takes on the personality of it's coach. And Day's personality is as a front runner. That hang a hundred comment was the most significant thing to turn the tide of this rivalry. It's the equivalent of calling Michigan a bitch to it's face. That is going to go over poorly. And when Michigan fired Brown (a year later than it should have) and went to a NFL scheme, everything changed.
NFL Week 10 and 11, these numbers of points won games:
16, 10, 23, 20, 25, 16, 24, 13, 21, 20, 17, 21, 21.
That's 13 games won with 25 or fewer points. Three games were won with 16 points or less. Four won in the teens. 13 and 10 points won games. The Jets beat the Eagles this year. So when Michigan went to an NFL scheme, it was looking at THE GAME not as a college game anymore, like it was under Don Brown, who was running a talent gap based college scheme. Michigan went to an NFL scheme where teams are not scoring 62 and 59 points ever. We all know this. But what is noteworthy is that Ohio State has not shown any adaptation.....they still can't run it well on 3rd and short. And their run pass balance is always out of balance in favor of the pass.
Ryan Day is a college coach who abandons balance because he gets frustrated easily. And when faced with an NFL style game, he can't outcoach it. Because by running up the score in the past, he's made it look like OSU is better than they are. And then when Michigan comes and comes punching they are not used to it. And have not ever been used to winning games on Defense.
That condition remains the same. Day, his players, the OSU fanbase, and the Michigan fanbase after the Don Brown PTSD 62 and 59 point games, believe OSU is something that they are not under Day. And TBH it has worked out for them. They are somehow ranked above Michigan despite showing far less. And that illusion got them into the CFP last year.
But Ryan Day is the Rot of OSU football. Get your cigar ready and your favorite celebratory drink. If Michigan starts from ahead and keeps the crowd in the game, it could be another double digit win. Keep their confidence up. But Michigan needed to change coaches at DC or else Don Brown was never going to beat OSU. Comparatively, OSU has changed nothing....they are not going to beat Michigan at Michigan trying the same stuff they did the last two years losing by 22 and 17. The best thing we can hope for is for Day not to get fired.
Michigan wins again on Saturday. For as much as I worry about UM getting jobbed by the B10 and suspending Jim. Our guys only know beating OSU. I think UM is veteran enough to still do it. Go Blue!
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