1981-2000 (20 year period):
OSU: 172-65 (.725)
UM: 182-56 (.764)
Head to head: Michigan 13-6-1
Notes: We were the better program during this time period, and I would argue largely because we had much better quarterback play. Steve Smith lost to OSU in both 1981 and 1982, but once we started trotting out pro style QBs (starting with Jim Harbaugh), we took command of the series.
The wins in 1995 and 1996 were of course upset wins, where we had a 3 loss team and were substantial (15 point, I believe) underdogs in both years to undefeated Buckeye teams. That probably coincided with weak QB play on our part again (Griese and Dreisbach were not good in either year), and some incredible players on their team (including but not limited to Eddie George, the Heisman winner in 1995, and Orlando Pace, the #1 pick in the 1997 NFL draft).
But to his credit, Lloyd Carr didn't just have those upset wins over OSU; in 1997, 1999 and 2003, we had great teams and beat the Buckeyes in those years. In the past 40 years, the wins in 1997 and 2003 represent our best wins when both teams were elite.
2001-2020 (the next 20 year period)
OSU: 215-39 (.846)
UM: 159-88 (.643)
Pre-Harbaugh: 110-66 (.625)
Post-Harbaugh: 49-22 (.690)
Head to head: OSU 17-2
Notes:
Not a ton to say here.
The Buckeyes have really upped their game as a program.
QB play has mattered a lot. Troy Smith, Terrelle Pryor, JT Barrett, Dwayne Haskins, and Justin Fields - none of those guys have ever lost to Michigan.
In the early years (2001-2007), Tressel went 6-1 against Lloyd, though each of those games (except maybe 2007, when Henne couldn't throw and Lloyd for whatever reason wouldn't play Mallett) was close and we could have won. It's hard to know what to do with that. It sucked to go 1-6 but at this point, close losses to the Buckeyes are at least a sign the program is competitive with them, and we haven't had one of those since 2017.
Oddly enough, even though Hoke wasn't ultimately up the task of being the Michigan coach, he got his teams ready to play OSU. Even if we discount 2011 a little because OSU was 6-7 and Fickell was the interim coach, we were still very competitive in 2012 (26-21 loss) and 2013 (42-41 loss).
It seems to me the challenge right now is that OSU has shifted to a much more pass oriented offense, right about at the same time we started graduating the outstanding DEs and DTs Hoke recruited. So, they have all day to throw the ball, we can't stuff their run game or rush the passer very effectively (as we get no pressure up the middle), and they've been able to isolate their third and fourth best receivers on our third and fourth best CBs (and sometimes safeties), with disastrous coverage results.
So, I'd say we need to fix our defense - both the scheme and recruiting. We need DTs in abundance (Hoke amazingly landed Henry, Wormley, Hurst, and Glasgow - all very good), and we need much better and deeper talent at CB. As long as Day is there, we can expect the same type of attack, as they have been extremely successful with it and keep hauling in elite QB prospects.
That's also why I continue to argue that to beat them, even with an improved defense, we'll need to plan on scoring 40-45 points at a minimum. The days of the 28-25 games are over, IMO, and that's true in college football generally (see the Alabama-LSU shootout from 2019, for example).
Anyway, this is not a "keep Harbaugh" post, just an historical perspective of how the rivalry evolved over the past 40 years.
I don't think all hope is lost, or that we can never beat them again. I do think we need to be much smarter about our approach. The crazy thing is, despite having a 17-2 record against us in the past 19 matchups, they are the ones who seem to be adjusting and evolving quicker than we do to maintain their advantage. For two years, Don Brown's defense perplexed them and slowed them down a lot (we held them to 20 and 31 in regulation - that's the best anyone's going to do and you need to win those games). Then they adjusted - to the tune of 62 and 56 points. Don Brown is no longer a problem and now we have to figure out how to slow them down again.
OSU: 172-65 (.725)
UM: 182-56 (.764)
Head to head: Michigan 13-6-1
Notes: We were the better program during this time period, and I would argue largely because we had much better quarterback play. Steve Smith lost to OSU in both 1981 and 1982, but once we started trotting out pro style QBs (starting with Jim Harbaugh), we took command of the series.
The wins in 1995 and 1996 were of course upset wins, where we had a 3 loss team and were substantial (15 point, I believe) underdogs in both years to undefeated Buckeye teams. That probably coincided with weak QB play on our part again (Griese and Dreisbach were not good in either year), and some incredible players on their team (including but not limited to Eddie George, the Heisman winner in 1995, and Orlando Pace, the #1 pick in the 1997 NFL draft).
But to his credit, Lloyd Carr didn't just have those upset wins over OSU; in 1997, 1999 and 2003, we had great teams and beat the Buckeyes in those years. In the past 40 years, the wins in 1997 and 2003 represent our best wins when both teams were elite.
2001-2020 (the next 20 year period)
OSU: 215-39 (.846)
UM: 159-88 (.643)
Pre-Harbaugh: 110-66 (.625)
Post-Harbaugh: 49-22 (.690)
Head to head: OSU 17-2
Notes:
Not a ton to say here.
The Buckeyes have really upped their game as a program.
QB play has mattered a lot. Troy Smith, Terrelle Pryor, JT Barrett, Dwayne Haskins, and Justin Fields - none of those guys have ever lost to Michigan.
In the early years (2001-2007), Tressel went 6-1 against Lloyd, though each of those games (except maybe 2007, when Henne couldn't throw and Lloyd for whatever reason wouldn't play Mallett) was close and we could have won. It's hard to know what to do with that. It sucked to go 1-6 but at this point, close losses to the Buckeyes are at least a sign the program is competitive with them, and we haven't had one of those since 2017.
Oddly enough, even though Hoke wasn't ultimately up the task of being the Michigan coach, he got his teams ready to play OSU. Even if we discount 2011 a little because OSU was 6-7 and Fickell was the interim coach, we were still very competitive in 2012 (26-21 loss) and 2013 (42-41 loss).
It seems to me the challenge right now is that OSU has shifted to a much more pass oriented offense, right about at the same time we started graduating the outstanding DEs and DTs Hoke recruited. So, they have all day to throw the ball, we can't stuff their run game or rush the passer very effectively (as we get no pressure up the middle), and they've been able to isolate their third and fourth best receivers on our third and fourth best CBs (and sometimes safeties), with disastrous coverage results.
So, I'd say we need to fix our defense - both the scheme and recruiting. We need DTs in abundance (Hoke amazingly landed Henry, Wormley, Hurst, and Glasgow - all very good), and we need much better and deeper talent at CB. As long as Day is there, we can expect the same type of attack, as they have been extremely successful with it and keep hauling in elite QB prospects.
That's also why I continue to argue that to beat them, even with an improved defense, we'll need to plan on scoring 40-45 points at a minimum. The days of the 28-25 games are over, IMO, and that's true in college football generally (see the Alabama-LSU shootout from 2019, for example).
Anyway, this is not a "keep Harbaugh" post, just an historical perspective of how the rivalry evolved over the past 40 years.
I don't think all hope is lost, or that we can never beat them again. I do think we need to be much smarter about our approach. The crazy thing is, despite having a 17-2 record against us in the past 19 matchups, they are the ones who seem to be adjusting and evolving quicker than we do to maintain their advantage. For two years, Don Brown's defense perplexed them and slowed them down a lot (we held them to 20 and 31 in regulation - that's the best anyone's going to do and you need to win those games). Then they adjusted - to the tune of 62 and 56 points. Don Brown is no longer a problem and now we have to figure out how to slow them down again.
