One thing I like about their website is that you can apply their formula for any period in time and see how teams rank. If you look look at the time period from Dec. 31 to now, Michigan is the #1 team in college basketball, with Gonzaga #2 and Baylor #5. So, in addition to what a lot of us feel we have observed with our eyes, there's a lot of truth behind the idea that Michigan has been playing the best basketball in the country for a while now.
But, it's worth remembering that one reason these websites don't adjust their formulas to give more weight to recent games, is because their rankings are more predictive against the spread (more accurate) when you count the entire season and whatever preaseason data goes into the formula (with Torvik the preseason data drops out after 13 games).
For example, if you look at Torvik's rankings from last Sunday until now (including our wins over OSU, Iowa, and Indiana), you get the following results:
1. Toledo
2. Purdue
3. Villanova
4. Houston
5. Michigan
7. Maryland
15. Michigan State
48. Gonzaga
133. Baylor
So it's easy to make the argument that the rankings become less accurate as you reduce the sample size.
Interesting nevertheless.
But, it's worth remembering that one reason these websites don't adjust their formulas to give more weight to recent games, is because their rankings are more predictive against the spread (more accurate) when you count the entire season and whatever preaseason data goes into the formula (with Torvik the preseason data drops out after 13 games).
For example, if you look at Torvik's rankings from last Sunday until now (including our wins over OSU, Iowa, and Indiana), you get the following results:
1. Toledo
2. Purdue
3. Villanova
4. Houston
5. Michigan
7. Maryland
15. Michigan State
48. Gonzaga
133. Baylor
So it's easy to make the argument that the rankings become less accurate as you reduce the sample size.
Interesting nevertheless.
