If we think we can rely on the NCAA to establish rules or ‘guardrails’ governing NIL, Pay4Play or poaching other schools’ best players, it’s not going to happen. The NCAA is defending itself in 3-4 large lawsuits regarding financial losses incurred by student-athletes as the result of NCAA rules being inconsistent with federal laws. Whether settled at trial or by a negotiated settlement, the costs could bankrupt the NCAA. Along with about a dozen states, another plaintiff in one of the suits is the U.S. Department of Justice!
The result is a lot of the top schools have chosen to break the NCAA’s existing rules with impunity. There is a large chance that the rules being violated also violate federal antitrust laws. There is virtually no chance that the NCAA will threaten enforcement and run the risk of having to defend another large lawsuit which they are likely to lose.
The effect on Michigan or other schools which choose not to join the schools using aggressive financial practices is that it will be difficult to attract recruits and top transfer players, as well as retaining players. Our better players will be poached by schools willing to pay the price. We can talk brotherhood and culture, but in the end the old adage ‘follow the money’ is likely to prevail.
There are lots of examples. Today Ohio State poached and signed Caleb Downs, a rising soph CB who was Alabama’s leading tackler last season. The Buckeyes have been very active in the Transfer Portal since the end of the season. They are generally thought to be the leader to flip Julian Sayin, the highest-rated QB in the incoming ‘24 class who had also committed to Alabama. Reports are that it takes $4-5 million a year to attract and retain top QBs such as Sayin.
To expect rules to be established by conferences or state or federal legislation is a pipe dream. There won’t be any rules or guardrails until whatever organization that replaces the NCAA is created. We may be talking a decade or more.
There’s no sense debating whether we like the idea of teen-age athletes being paid hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars to play college football or basketball, or whether that violates NCAA rules. The reality is that the NCAA can’t enforce those rules, which may be illegal themselves. The schools who recruit and retain the best players will win, probably be selected for the new expanded CFP system, and recover a lot of their expenditures from post-season game payments and much increased generosity from wealthy donors. The schools who don’t play the game will be unable to compete. This is a choice we’re facing.
We’re going to find out which ‘side of the fence’ Michigan will choose to be on very quickly. Is this post the bearer of bad tidings? I don’t think so. It’s just reality. Who will make the decision?
The result is a lot of the top schools have chosen to break the NCAA’s existing rules with impunity. There is a large chance that the rules being violated also violate federal antitrust laws. There is virtually no chance that the NCAA will threaten enforcement and run the risk of having to defend another large lawsuit which they are likely to lose.
The effect on Michigan or other schools which choose not to join the schools using aggressive financial practices is that it will be difficult to attract recruits and top transfer players, as well as retaining players. Our better players will be poached by schools willing to pay the price. We can talk brotherhood and culture, but in the end the old adage ‘follow the money’ is likely to prevail.
There are lots of examples. Today Ohio State poached and signed Caleb Downs, a rising soph CB who was Alabama’s leading tackler last season. The Buckeyes have been very active in the Transfer Portal since the end of the season. They are generally thought to be the leader to flip Julian Sayin, the highest-rated QB in the incoming ‘24 class who had also committed to Alabama. Reports are that it takes $4-5 million a year to attract and retain top QBs such as Sayin.
To expect rules to be established by conferences or state or federal legislation is a pipe dream. There won’t be any rules or guardrails until whatever organization that replaces the NCAA is created. We may be talking a decade or more.
There’s no sense debating whether we like the idea of teen-age athletes being paid hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars to play college football or basketball, or whether that violates NCAA rules. The reality is that the NCAA can’t enforce those rules, which may be illegal themselves. The schools who recruit and retain the best players will win, probably be selected for the new expanded CFP system, and recover a lot of their expenditures from post-season game payments and much increased generosity from wealthy donors. The schools who don’t play the game will be unable to compete. This is a choice we’re facing.
We’re going to find out which ‘side of the fence’ Michigan will choose to be on very quickly. Is this post the bearer of bad tidings? I don’t think so. It’s just reality. Who will make the decision?
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