Now that we know this week's CFP rankings and this weekend's matchups, we can start to piece together the NY6 bowl picture, where Michigan is headed, and whom Michigan will face.
I know some of you couldn't care less about a bowl after last weekend, but some of you do care.
For the sake of this exercise, I'm going to presume that both Alabama (-13) and Clemson (-27.5) win this weekend. If they don't, things could get wacky because there could be an uproar as to whether the loser(s) should remain in the CFP, and I don't have time to delve into those scenarios.
On that note, here are some realistic scenarios and my projections:
Scenario #1:
Oklahoma-Texas: Oklahoma
Ohio State-Northwestern: Ohio State
UCF-Memphis: UCF
Semifinal 1: Alabama-Oklahoma
Semifinal 2: Clemson-Notre Dame
Rose: Ohio State-Washington/Utah
Sugar: Georgia-West Virginia (Texas drops below WVU after loss to OU)
Peach: Michigan-Florida or Florida-UCF
Fiesta: LSU-UCF or Michigan-LSU
Ohio State misses the CFP. Thus, OSU is in the Rose Bowl, and Michigan is relegated to an "access" bowl (Peach or Fiesta). The four teams that the committee would put in the access bowls are Michigan, Florida, LSU, and UCF. Florida and LSU won't be paired up because they're both SEC teams. If the committee pairs Michigan and Florida, I predict it would be in the Peach Bowl because UCF played in the Peach Bowl last season and the committee tries not to send teams to the same bowl two years in a row. However, the committee may realize that Michigan and Florida would play for the third time in four years, so they may pair Michigan with LSU and Florida with UCF. If that happens, I see the committee putting Florida-UCF in the Peach Bowl for proximity purposes (even if that means UCF plays in the Peach Bowl two years in a row) and Michigan-LSU in the Fiesta Bowl. This is the most likely scenario, and I'm leaning to Michigan-LSU in the Fiesta.
Scenario #2:
Oklahoma-Texas: Oklahoma
Ohio State-Northwestern: Northwestern
UCF-Memphis: UCF
Semifinal 1: Alabama-Oklahoma
Semifinal 2: Clemson-Notre Dame
Rose: Northwestern-Washington/Utah
Sugar: Georgia-West Virginia (Texas drops below WVU after loss to OU)
Peach: Ohio State/Michigan-LSU
Fiesta: Michigan/Ohio State-UCF
If Northwestern beats Ohio State, the Wildcats grab the Rose Bowl bid. Despite that it would be a bad loss for the Buckeyes, a two-loss OSU team won't be dropped out of a NY6 bowl. That means OSU bumps Florida out of the four teams being considered for an "access" bowl. Michigan and Ohio State are both Big Ten teams, so they won't be paired. UCF will be sent to the Fiesta Bowl because it played in the Peach Bowl last season, so LSU will be sent to the Peach Bowl. Then it's just a matter of where Michigan and OSU are sent. I'm leaning to Michigan-UCF in the Fiesta and OSU-LSU in the Peach because the committee would punish Michigan for losing to OSU and OSU played in the Fiesta two years ago.
Scenario #3:
Oklahoma-Texas: Oklahoma
Ohio State-Northwestern: Ohio State
UCF-Memphis: Memphis
Semifinal 1: Alabama-Oklahoma
Semifinal 2: Clemson-Notre Dame
Rose: Ohio State-Washington/Utah
Sugar: Georgia-West Virginia (Texas drops below WVU after loss to OU)
Peach: Michigan-LSU/Florida
Fiesta: Florida/LSU-Boise/Fresno
Here, Michigan is definitely in the Peach. If UCF loses, the highest ranked G5 champ will be the winner of Boise State-Fresno State, and the winner will be sent to the Fiesta. LSU and Florida won't be paired because they're both SEC teams, so Michigan won't be paired with Boise/Fresno. Thus, Michigan will be sent to the Peach to face either LSU or Florida. I think it would be LSU.
Scenario #4:
Oklahoma-Texas: Texas
Ohio State-Northwestern: Ohio State
UCF-Memphis: UCF
Semifinal 1: Alabama-Ohio State
Semifinal 2: Clemson-Notre Dame
Rose: Michigan-Washington/Utah
Sugar: Georgia-Texas
Peach: Florida-UCF or Oklahoma-Florida
Fiesta: Oklahoma-LSU or LSU-UCF
Ohio State makes the CFP, so Michigan makes the Rose. Simple.
Scenario #5:
Oklahoma-Texas: Oklahoma
Ohio State-Northwestern: Northwestern
UCF-Memphis: Memphis
Semifinal 1: Alabama-Oklahoma
Semifinal 2: Clemson-Notre Dame
Rose: Northwestern-Washington/Utah
Sugar: Georgia-West Virginia (Texas drops below WVU after loss to OU)
Peach: Ohio State/Michigan-LSU
Fiesta: Michigan/Ohio State-Boise/Fresno
Ohio State gets dropped to an access bowl, which bumps Florida. The winner of Boise-Fresno is sent to the Fiesta, which puts LSU in the Peach. Again, I think Michigan is sent to the Fiesta because OSU has played there recently (Michigan hasn't since 1985) and Michigan will be punished by playing the G5 team because it lost the head-to-head matchup with Ohio State.
Scenario #6:
Oklahoma-Texas: Texas
Ohio State-Northwestern: Ohio State
UCF-Memphis: Memphis
Semifinal 1: Alabama-Ohio State
Semifinal 2: Clemson-Notre Dame
Rose: Michigan-Washington/Utah
Sugar: Georgia-Texas
Peach: LSU/Florida-Oklahoma
Fiesta: LSU/Florida-Boise/Fresno
Ohio State makes the CFP, so Michigan makes the Rose. Simple.
Scenario #7:
Oklahoma-Texas: Texas
Ohio State-Northwestern: Northwestern
UCF-Memphis: Irrelevant
Semifinal 1: Alabama-Georgia
Semifinal 2: Clemson-Notre Dame
Rose: Northwestern-Washington/Utah
Sugar: LSU-Texas
Peach: Ohio State/Michigan-Oklahoma
Fiesta: Michigan/Ohio State-UCF/Boise/Fresno
This is a chaos scenario. Even if #4 Georgia, #5 Oklahoma, and #6 Ohio State all lose this weekend, I don't foresee #7 Michigan jumping all of them to make the playoff. The committee won't put Michigan in over Ohio State when they both have the same number of losses and Ohio State has the head-to-head win, and Georgia would still have the best resume of the contenders. There could have been a remote possibility that the committee would have thrown in unbeaten UCF and let the four undefeateds clash, but that's vanished after Milton's injury. So I think Georgia would get the nod and get a rematch with Alabama (whee!), which puts LSU in the Sugar Bowl. That then leaves Michigan, Ohio State, Oklahoma, and a G5 team in the "access" bowls. Michigan and Ohio State won't be paired, which means that the G5 team will be sent to the Fiesta (no proximity issues here) and Oklahoma will be sent to the Peach. In other similar scenarios, I've mentioned that Michigan would be punished and sent to the Fiesta. However, Ohio State would face Oklahoma for the third straight year if they clash in the Peach. The committee may think that there is matchup fatigue there, so I'm actually leaning to Michigan-Oklahoma in the Peach here.
Summary
If Ohio State makes the playoff, Michigan will play in the Rose Bowl vs. the winner of Washington-Utah.
If Ohio State misses the playoff, Michigan will play in the Peach or Fiesta Bowl. They'll likely play either LSU, Florida, Oklahoma, or the G5 champion. Whom it is will depend on various factors.
/end novel
I know some of you couldn't care less about a bowl after last weekend, but some of you do care.
For the sake of this exercise, I'm going to presume that both Alabama (-13) and Clemson (-27.5) win this weekend. If they don't, things could get wacky because there could be an uproar as to whether the loser(s) should remain in the CFP, and I don't have time to delve into those scenarios.
On that note, here are some realistic scenarios and my projections:
Scenario #1:
Oklahoma-Texas: Oklahoma
Ohio State-Northwestern: Ohio State
UCF-Memphis: UCF
Semifinal 1: Alabama-Oklahoma
Semifinal 2: Clemson-Notre Dame
Rose: Ohio State-Washington/Utah
Sugar: Georgia-West Virginia (Texas drops below WVU after loss to OU)
Peach: Michigan-Florida or Florida-UCF
Fiesta: LSU-UCF or Michigan-LSU
Ohio State misses the CFP. Thus, OSU is in the Rose Bowl, and Michigan is relegated to an "access" bowl (Peach or Fiesta). The four teams that the committee would put in the access bowls are Michigan, Florida, LSU, and UCF. Florida and LSU won't be paired up because they're both SEC teams. If the committee pairs Michigan and Florida, I predict it would be in the Peach Bowl because UCF played in the Peach Bowl last season and the committee tries not to send teams to the same bowl two years in a row. However, the committee may realize that Michigan and Florida would play for the third time in four years, so they may pair Michigan with LSU and Florida with UCF. If that happens, I see the committee putting Florida-UCF in the Peach Bowl for proximity purposes (even if that means UCF plays in the Peach Bowl two years in a row) and Michigan-LSU in the Fiesta Bowl. This is the most likely scenario, and I'm leaning to Michigan-LSU in the Fiesta.
Scenario #2:
Oklahoma-Texas: Oklahoma
Ohio State-Northwestern: Northwestern
UCF-Memphis: UCF
Semifinal 1: Alabama-Oklahoma
Semifinal 2: Clemson-Notre Dame
Rose: Northwestern-Washington/Utah
Sugar: Georgia-West Virginia (Texas drops below WVU after loss to OU)
Peach: Ohio State/Michigan-LSU
Fiesta: Michigan/Ohio State-UCF
If Northwestern beats Ohio State, the Wildcats grab the Rose Bowl bid. Despite that it would be a bad loss for the Buckeyes, a two-loss OSU team won't be dropped out of a NY6 bowl. That means OSU bumps Florida out of the four teams being considered for an "access" bowl. Michigan and Ohio State are both Big Ten teams, so they won't be paired. UCF will be sent to the Fiesta Bowl because it played in the Peach Bowl last season, so LSU will be sent to the Peach Bowl. Then it's just a matter of where Michigan and OSU are sent. I'm leaning to Michigan-UCF in the Fiesta and OSU-LSU in the Peach because the committee would punish Michigan for losing to OSU and OSU played in the Fiesta two years ago.
Scenario #3:
Oklahoma-Texas: Oklahoma
Ohio State-Northwestern: Ohio State
UCF-Memphis: Memphis
Semifinal 1: Alabama-Oklahoma
Semifinal 2: Clemson-Notre Dame
Rose: Ohio State-Washington/Utah
Sugar: Georgia-West Virginia (Texas drops below WVU after loss to OU)
Peach: Michigan-LSU/Florida
Fiesta: Florida/LSU-Boise/Fresno
Here, Michigan is definitely in the Peach. If UCF loses, the highest ranked G5 champ will be the winner of Boise State-Fresno State, and the winner will be sent to the Fiesta. LSU and Florida won't be paired because they're both SEC teams, so Michigan won't be paired with Boise/Fresno. Thus, Michigan will be sent to the Peach to face either LSU or Florida. I think it would be LSU.
Scenario #4:
Oklahoma-Texas: Texas
Ohio State-Northwestern: Ohio State
UCF-Memphis: UCF
Semifinal 1: Alabama-Ohio State
Semifinal 2: Clemson-Notre Dame
Rose: Michigan-Washington/Utah
Sugar: Georgia-Texas
Peach: Florida-UCF or Oklahoma-Florida
Fiesta: Oklahoma-LSU or LSU-UCF
Ohio State makes the CFP, so Michigan makes the Rose. Simple.
Scenario #5:
Oklahoma-Texas: Oklahoma
Ohio State-Northwestern: Northwestern
UCF-Memphis: Memphis
Semifinal 1: Alabama-Oklahoma
Semifinal 2: Clemson-Notre Dame
Rose: Northwestern-Washington/Utah
Sugar: Georgia-West Virginia (Texas drops below WVU after loss to OU)
Peach: Ohio State/Michigan-LSU
Fiesta: Michigan/Ohio State-Boise/Fresno
Ohio State gets dropped to an access bowl, which bumps Florida. The winner of Boise-Fresno is sent to the Fiesta, which puts LSU in the Peach. Again, I think Michigan is sent to the Fiesta because OSU has played there recently (Michigan hasn't since 1985) and Michigan will be punished by playing the G5 team because it lost the head-to-head matchup with Ohio State.
Scenario #6:
Oklahoma-Texas: Texas
Ohio State-Northwestern: Ohio State
UCF-Memphis: Memphis
Semifinal 1: Alabama-Ohio State
Semifinal 2: Clemson-Notre Dame
Rose: Michigan-Washington/Utah
Sugar: Georgia-Texas
Peach: LSU/Florida-Oklahoma
Fiesta: LSU/Florida-Boise/Fresno
Ohio State makes the CFP, so Michigan makes the Rose. Simple.
Scenario #7:
Oklahoma-Texas: Texas
Ohio State-Northwestern: Northwestern
UCF-Memphis: Irrelevant
Semifinal 1: Alabama-Georgia
Semifinal 2: Clemson-Notre Dame
Rose: Northwestern-Washington/Utah
Sugar: LSU-Texas
Peach: Ohio State/Michigan-Oklahoma
Fiesta: Michigan/Ohio State-UCF/Boise/Fresno
This is a chaos scenario. Even if #4 Georgia, #5 Oklahoma, and #6 Ohio State all lose this weekend, I don't foresee #7 Michigan jumping all of them to make the playoff. The committee won't put Michigan in over Ohio State when they both have the same number of losses and Ohio State has the head-to-head win, and Georgia would still have the best resume of the contenders. There could have been a remote possibility that the committee would have thrown in unbeaten UCF and let the four undefeateds clash, but that's vanished after Milton's injury. So I think Georgia would get the nod and get a rematch with Alabama (whee!), which puts LSU in the Sugar Bowl. That then leaves Michigan, Ohio State, Oklahoma, and a G5 team in the "access" bowls. Michigan and Ohio State won't be paired, which means that the G5 team will be sent to the Fiesta (no proximity issues here) and Oklahoma will be sent to the Peach. In other similar scenarios, I've mentioned that Michigan would be punished and sent to the Fiesta. However, Ohio State would face Oklahoma for the third straight year if they clash in the Peach. The committee may think that there is matchup fatigue there, so I'm actually leaning to Michigan-Oklahoma in the Peach here.
Summary
If Ohio State makes the playoff, Michigan will play in the Rose Bowl vs. the winner of Washington-Utah.
If Ohio State misses the playoff, Michigan will play in the Peach or Fiesta Bowl. They'll likely play either LSU, Florida, Oklahoma, or the G5 champion. Whom it is will depend on various factors.
/end novel
