(1) As of now, Michigan stands at 6-0 in the conference. The next five games are Wisconsin (away), Minnesota (home), Indiana (away), Ohio State (home), Iowa (away). 3-2 seems reasonable. Minnesota and OSU are games that Michigan should win at home. Michigan should be able to win one of the road games. Indiana is probably the best of the opponents, but none of them are unwinnable. The next stretch is Rutgers (away), Wisconsin (home), PSU (away). This is the easiest stretch of our schedule remaining. Wisconsin could be playing better by this time, but as of now, Michigan should be able to sweep this stretch of games. The final stretch is arguably our most difficult stretch. Minnesota (away), Maryland (home), MSU (home), Nebraska (home), Maryland (away), MSU (away). 4-2 would be a good goal here.
(2) 27-4 is a reasonable goal. If you break down the schedule by road and home games, you get a similar outcome. We have six challenging road games remaining (MSU, Wisconsin, IU, Minnesota, Iowa, MD). If we split those six games, which is a reasonable ask, and sweep the home games, that gets us to 27-3. However, we’ve never swept the home schedule under Beilein (losing one game in three difference years is our best showing), so the best bet is we drop a random home along the way. Do that, and it comes out to 27-4.
(3) Most seasons, 27-4 would lock us up on the 1 line. However, the competition for a 1 seed will be particularly fierce. The ACC winner is a lock to take one. Tennessee is in great shape if it runs through the SEC. The Big 10 champ should get one and that leaves one spot left. You still have the ACC runner up and Kansas as well. Some will push Gonzaga although that would be a total joke (they’d have 2 wins at most vs the field). Now If Michigan wins the league outright at 16-4, it’s a lock. If MSU wins the league or it’s a tie, then it’s a closer call. Can the B1G get two 1 seeds? I think it’s possible but it would require Michigan State to win the league. Michigan has a much stronger non-conference profile, so if they were to finish second, they’d have a great shot. I can’t see a second place MSU team getting a 1 seed when its best non-conference win is over a 10 seed Florida or Texas team.
(4) Some years being on the 1 line may not matter, but with Duke looking like a juggernaut, we really want to avoid being a 2 in that bracket. Also, the top seed in the Midwest region is open for the B1G champ.
(5) While the B1G will likely receive a record number of bids, it’s shaping up nicely for Michigan and Michigan State to each receive protected seed status and be sent to a Midwest site. Last year, you had three B1G teams in play for Detroit and Michigan was the odd team out going to Wichita. This year, it’s hard to see how a third B1G team emerges to the point of being a protected seed. Maryland appears closest but their non-conference work was putrid. Bottom line, it’s pretty safe to book Michigan to Columbus now.
(6) What’s our worst case outcome? If Michigan were to go 8-6 down the stretch and then stumble early (which seems inconceivable but then again the 2013 team started 16-0 and finished 9-7), we could fall to a 3/4 seed. That’s a nice worst case scenario in mid January.
(2) 27-4 is a reasonable goal. If you break down the schedule by road and home games, you get a similar outcome. We have six challenging road games remaining (MSU, Wisconsin, IU, Minnesota, Iowa, MD). If we split those six games, which is a reasonable ask, and sweep the home games, that gets us to 27-3. However, we’ve never swept the home schedule under Beilein (losing one game in three difference years is our best showing), so the best bet is we drop a random home along the way. Do that, and it comes out to 27-4.
(3) Most seasons, 27-4 would lock us up on the 1 line. However, the competition for a 1 seed will be particularly fierce. The ACC winner is a lock to take one. Tennessee is in great shape if it runs through the SEC. The Big 10 champ should get one and that leaves one spot left. You still have the ACC runner up and Kansas as well. Some will push Gonzaga although that would be a total joke (they’d have 2 wins at most vs the field). Now If Michigan wins the league outright at 16-4, it’s a lock. If MSU wins the league or it’s a tie, then it’s a closer call. Can the B1G get two 1 seeds? I think it’s possible but it would require Michigan State to win the league. Michigan has a much stronger non-conference profile, so if they were to finish second, they’d have a great shot. I can’t see a second place MSU team getting a 1 seed when its best non-conference win is over a 10 seed Florida or Texas team.
(4) Some years being on the 1 line may not matter, but with Duke looking like a juggernaut, we really want to avoid being a 2 in that bracket. Also, the top seed in the Midwest region is open for the B1G champ.
(5) While the B1G will likely receive a record number of bids, it’s shaping up nicely for Michigan and Michigan State to each receive protected seed status and be sent to a Midwest site. Last year, you had three B1G teams in play for Detroit and Michigan was the odd team out going to Wichita. This year, it’s hard to see how a third B1G team emerges to the point of being a protected seed. Maryland appears closest but their non-conference work was putrid. Bottom line, it’s pretty safe to book Michigan to Columbus now.
(6) What’s our worst case outcome? If Michigan were to go 8-6 down the stretch and then stumble early (which seems inconceivable but then again the 2013 team started 16-0 and finished 9-7), we could fall to a 3/4 seed. That’s a nice worst case scenario in mid January.
