We're only 3 weeks in and there have been some really crazy results in the Big Ten this year. I don't think we know enough about anyone in the conference to have a good idea of what our final record will be.
I’d be beyond shocked if Michigan beat OSU, but comparing results makes it seem like we could go 6-3. Just based on our win over Minnesota... we beat them by 25 points and then they lost to Maryland by 1 and beat Illinois by about as much as Wisconsin did (38 point margin for Wisconsin over Illinois, 27 point margin for Minnesota over Illinois). Based on those results, you’d expect us to beat Maryland by 24, Penn State by 40, and Wisconsin by 13. We’d just have to take care of Rutgers and win our crossover to make it to 6-3, and the crossover might be against Purdue who barely beat Illinois by 7 (Michigan would be a 44-point favorite or we’d be a 48 point favorite over Iowa).
Or, if you consider that we lost to MSU by 3, who lost to Iowa by 42, then based on those results we’d probably be predicted to lose the rest of our games. Or if you consider that we lost to MSU by 3, who lost to Rutgers by 11, who lost to Indiana by 16, who beat Penn State by 1, who lost to Maryland by 16, who lost to Iowa by 40… well by that measure we’d be an 85-point underdog to Iowa and surely a big underdog against everyone else.
Obviously, football is not transitive. But my point is that, there have been a lot of very strange results in the Big Ten this year – after only 3 weeks – and with no non-conference games this year, I don’t think we know a whole lot about the quality of anyone in the conference besides Ohio State.
Maryland beat Penn State by 16 (and led by 28 in the 4th quarter) and Maryland lost to Northwestern by 40! Maryland beat Penn State by more than Ohio State did!
I wish there was some way to calculate an SP+ ranking for only the Big Ten based on the first three games and no data from last year, because the rankings would be all over the place.
The last two weeks have been excruciating, but I really hope that the players and coaches are doing everything they can to right the ship. Strange things happen in sports. Michigan still has a lot to play for this year. All the comparisons of opponents’ scores in the previous section doesn’t mean that I expect us to go 6-3. Just that I think it’s more possible than people think, especially because we don’t know that much about the rest of the conference, yet.
Michigan has lost a rivalry game and a game against a team currently rated in the top 10 in the country.
Between our o-line, CBs, and QB, we had 100% first year starters at all those positions in the Indiana game. We have a young team that is currently without Nico Collins, Ambry Thomas, Jaylen Mayfield, Ryan Hayes, and Aiden Hutchinson. Probably every one of those guys besides Hayes would be a first team All-Big Ten player if they were playing. Out of all those guys, if just Ambry Thomas had decided not to opt out, we’d probably be 3-0 right now and favored in every game left on the schedule besides OSU.
We also could have a really good team next year IF the coaches and players do a great job. I'm with everyone else in that our results have puzzled me to the point where I hope that Harbaugh, Gattis, and Brown have still got it but I'm not 100% sure anymore. If the negativity of the last two weeks carries over to the rest of the season, or if the coaches and players are already doing a poor job for whatever reason, then we probably can’t turn things around. But imagine if we do turn things around this year. Next year, we could return 4 or 5 starters on the offensive line, the QB, every RB, TE, and WR, all the secondary and linebackers (hopefully with a couple of the young CBs having improved a ton), and everyone on the d-line except for probably Paye and Hutchinson. We could have 19 out of 22 starters back from a young team that improved as this season went on - if it happens. That could be quite a team. But, at minimum, we need to turn things around this year or else we run the risk of being in program reset mode or zombie mode.
I know a lot of people probably think it’s impossible to come back from something like the last two weeks, but it depends on how the rest of the season plays out. Brian Kelley went 4-8 in year 7 at ND and was in the playoffs two years later because no one gave up on him, and he will probably be back in the playoffs again this year. Tons of people on this board wanted Beilein fired back in 2017 before the team got hot and we went on an amazing 3-year run with two BTT titles, a NCAA finals trip and a 2 more sweet sixteens. Even Urban Meyer, in year 7 at OSU, lost to Purdue by 29, gave up 51 points and won by 1 against a Maryland team that didn’t make a bowl game, barely beat a Nebraska team that went 4-8, and needed a fluky comeback to win by 1 against a Penn State team that we beat 42-7. But, they finished with a good record and didn’t let things fall apart submarining their program. LSU this year, one year removed from winning the national title, is 2-3 with losses to Mississippi State, Missouri, and to Auburn by 37 points, and they would be 2-4 if their game against Florida hadn't been cancelled. People think that the best teams are great every week or never have rebuilding seasons. That's not entirely true. And if Michigan can turn things around, we can look back on this as a bad two week stretch instead of the moment when Michigan football finally failed, even with the best hire we ever could've gotten at the helm.
If the coaches and players are really bought in - and I'm not close enough to the situation to say they are or they aren't - Michigan could turn things around. We could finish with a respectable record this year and have a very, very good team next year.
I’d be beyond shocked if Michigan beat OSU, but comparing results makes it seem like we could go 6-3. Just based on our win over Minnesota... we beat them by 25 points and then they lost to Maryland by 1 and beat Illinois by about as much as Wisconsin did (38 point margin for Wisconsin over Illinois, 27 point margin for Minnesota over Illinois). Based on those results, you’d expect us to beat Maryland by 24, Penn State by 40, and Wisconsin by 13. We’d just have to take care of Rutgers and win our crossover to make it to 6-3, and the crossover might be against Purdue who barely beat Illinois by 7 (Michigan would be a 44-point favorite or we’d be a 48 point favorite over Iowa).
Or, if you consider that we lost to MSU by 3, who lost to Iowa by 42, then based on those results we’d probably be predicted to lose the rest of our games. Or if you consider that we lost to MSU by 3, who lost to Rutgers by 11, who lost to Indiana by 16, who beat Penn State by 1, who lost to Maryland by 16, who lost to Iowa by 40… well by that measure we’d be an 85-point underdog to Iowa and surely a big underdog against everyone else.
Obviously, football is not transitive. But my point is that, there have been a lot of very strange results in the Big Ten this year – after only 3 weeks – and with no non-conference games this year, I don’t think we know a whole lot about the quality of anyone in the conference besides Ohio State.
Maryland beat Penn State by 16 (and led by 28 in the 4th quarter) and Maryland lost to Northwestern by 40! Maryland beat Penn State by more than Ohio State did!
I wish there was some way to calculate an SP+ ranking for only the Big Ten based on the first three games and no data from last year, because the rankings would be all over the place.
The last two weeks have been excruciating, but I really hope that the players and coaches are doing everything they can to right the ship. Strange things happen in sports. Michigan still has a lot to play for this year. All the comparisons of opponents’ scores in the previous section doesn’t mean that I expect us to go 6-3. Just that I think it’s more possible than people think, especially because we don’t know that much about the rest of the conference, yet.
Michigan has lost a rivalry game and a game against a team currently rated in the top 10 in the country.
Between our o-line, CBs, and QB, we had 100% first year starters at all those positions in the Indiana game. We have a young team that is currently without Nico Collins, Ambry Thomas, Jaylen Mayfield, Ryan Hayes, and Aiden Hutchinson. Probably every one of those guys besides Hayes would be a first team All-Big Ten player if they were playing. Out of all those guys, if just Ambry Thomas had decided not to opt out, we’d probably be 3-0 right now and favored in every game left on the schedule besides OSU.
We also could have a really good team next year IF the coaches and players do a great job. I'm with everyone else in that our results have puzzled me to the point where I hope that Harbaugh, Gattis, and Brown have still got it but I'm not 100% sure anymore. If the negativity of the last two weeks carries over to the rest of the season, or if the coaches and players are already doing a poor job for whatever reason, then we probably can’t turn things around. But imagine if we do turn things around this year. Next year, we could return 4 or 5 starters on the offensive line, the QB, every RB, TE, and WR, all the secondary and linebackers (hopefully with a couple of the young CBs having improved a ton), and everyone on the d-line except for probably Paye and Hutchinson. We could have 19 out of 22 starters back from a young team that improved as this season went on - if it happens. That could be quite a team. But, at minimum, we need to turn things around this year or else we run the risk of being in program reset mode or zombie mode.
I know a lot of people probably think it’s impossible to come back from something like the last two weeks, but it depends on how the rest of the season plays out. Brian Kelley went 4-8 in year 7 at ND and was in the playoffs two years later because no one gave up on him, and he will probably be back in the playoffs again this year. Tons of people on this board wanted Beilein fired back in 2017 before the team got hot and we went on an amazing 3-year run with two BTT titles, a NCAA finals trip and a 2 more sweet sixteens. Even Urban Meyer, in year 7 at OSU, lost to Purdue by 29, gave up 51 points and won by 1 against a Maryland team that didn’t make a bowl game, barely beat a Nebraska team that went 4-8, and needed a fluky comeback to win by 1 against a Penn State team that we beat 42-7. But, they finished with a good record and didn’t let things fall apart submarining their program. LSU this year, one year removed from winning the national title, is 2-3 with losses to Mississippi State, Missouri, and to Auburn by 37 points, and they would be 2-4 if their game against Florida hadn't been cancelled. People think that the best teams are great every week or never have rebuilding seasons. That's not entirely true. And if Michigan can turn things around, we can look back on this as a bad two week stretch instead of the moment when Michigan football finally failed, even with the best hire we ever could've gotten at the helm.
If the coaches and players are really bought in - and I'm not close enough to the situation to say they are or they aren't - Michigan could turn things around. We could finish with a respectable record this year and have a very, very good team next year.
