1) Tracking Michigan's last 13 away games dating back to 2018 season, U-M is 8-5 in those games, What do the five losses have in common (besides a more quality opponent)? They trailed after the first quarter in all of them: 14-7 at Indiana in 2020, 14-0 at Wisconsin in 2019, 7-0 at Penn State in 2019, 14-0 at Notre Dame in 2018 and 7-3 at Ohio State in 2018. In the ND, PSU and UW games, it's easy to remember those games as Michigan being "shell-shocked" right from the start, but I would argue they actually weren't. Admittedly against the Irish and Badgers, the defense played poorly, but the offense moved the football and had chances. Against ND, U-M was twice in Irish territory in the first quarter, including the Notre Dame 25-yard line, but came away with zero points. Against the Badgers, U-M was at the Wisconsin 7-yard line and had the Ben Mason fumble before the wheels came off. At Penn State, U-M reached the Nittany Lion 47- and 36-yard lines but again didn't put points on the board.
The offense moved the football but didn't finish drives. That created momentum for the opponent, the Michigan defense broke early in those contests, and the avalanches were on. The Buckeyes dominated the third quarter of their big win in 2018 (17-0) as there was a demonstrably lack of adjustments by U-M at halftime (particularly by Don Brown, though at that stage of his career, he couldn't go to zone even if he wanted to as they never practiced it).
All this being said, it is imperative for Michigan to have a good start tomorrow and to finish off drives in the first quarter, ideally with touchdowns not field goals. Especially for a team like Wisconsin that is fighting for confidence, putting the Badgers in a hole would really be catastrophic for a Badgers team that lacks explosive playmakers in the running and passing game (and has a QB on the brink). Obviously U-M can't go into a shell after halftime like it did against Rutgers, but they might just be able to hold onto a lead like they did a week ago if they can get out to a good start.
2) All eyes will be on Cade, obviously. I spoke to a few sources inside the program this week that expressed considerable doubt that Michigan will be able to run consistently against Wisconsin. They promised they would attack the edges more but they weren't confident at all that they would create big plays in the running game or be able to grind the ball down the field. "If we can't pass, we won't win" is the refrain I've heard plenty. Those same sources swear that Cade is a better player in practice than he has shown in games, and that he has it in him, but the "State Street" player vs. the "Main Street" player is a real thing, and Cade very much has to prove he's a Main Street player.
I spoke to a pair of former Michigan QBs this week and both expressed concerns over Cade's mechanics. The theory this past week was that he got his bell rung and after that he was jumpy in the pocket and never followed through on his throws, but those that watch these things closely have been sounding the alarm that his throwing mechanics are all over the place. Different arm slots, footwork, throwing off his back foot, too much off his front foot. Shea Patterson was similar. When you make a great throw, you get labeled a gunslinger, but what we're watching is sandlot football from the QB. Jim Harbaugh has said in the past he doesn't try to screw around too much with mechanics (you don't touch Jim Furyk's golf swing because it works for him) but unless you're one of the all-time greats, inconsistent mechanics often leads to inaccuracy, and we're seeing it with Cade.
Can he overcome that? What happens when he gets hit hard again tomorrow (and the week after and the week after that, etc.)? Will we see JJ? Will we see him anyway as a change-of-pace quarterback to add a little spark. I think we all want to see that, I think we all think it could happen but does history under Jim say they will? There was a plan in 2019 to use Shea and Dylan together and to use Dylan's skill set as a complement. Saw a little bit against Middle Tennessee State, then just one play against Army, then didn't actually see Dylan at Wisconsin until it was 35-0. Harbaugh replaced Wilton Speight for one series against Florida in 2017 after he had thrown two picks, and it seemed to work. He was pretty stubborn with O'Korn, only replacing him with Peters when it was obvious JOK was awful. I guess I just don't have a lot of hope that Jim and this staff will utilize JJ as a complimentary piece or even go to him as a replacement for Cade unless Michigan is losing by 28 points.
3) Wisconsin is very un-Wisconsin this year. They rank 33rd nationally with 203 yards rushing per game but it's a lot worse than that, as they rank 64th averaging 4.3 yards per carry. Michigan's defense last week, however, got exposed by Rutgers on the ground. The Scarlet Knights came into the game averaging 3.3 YPC but had 4.7 against Michigan, finishing with 196 yards on the ground. It helped that QB Noah Vedral was a threat, rushing for 46 yards. Wisconsin doesn't have that. Graham Mertz ran twice last week for zero yards and so far this season is in the negative (largely due to sacks taken). Still, the Badger coaches have had a keen eye all week on looking at weaknesses in that U-M front seven.
Are they there if the Michigan defense is well rested? Maybe, maybe not. After all, I saw Aidan Hutchinson lying on his back after getting pancaked in the fourth quarter. I don't care that it was a tackle and running back blocking him - no way a 100% energy Hutchinson ends up on his butt.
Both teams want to run the football. If they can, they take the so-so QBs out of deciding the game. I've had Michigan people telling me they think it will be a real challenge to do so against the Badgers while I've had Wisconsin personnel tell me they think they can run on U-M. If Wisconsin can and Michigan can't, that's the ball game most likely.
In my perfect world, I'd love to see Michigan come out firing and using its speed (AJ Henning and Blake Corum) to attack the edges of the defense, and give those linebackers reason to pause on every snap, and keep the safety 10-15 yards back and not crashing the line of scrimmage. And then pound Wisconsin with the running game. Do that, and I think Michigan puts the Badgers' offense in a really bad spot and U-M wins this game. I fear that the unimaginative and stubborn playcalling that is a Josh Gattis hallmark will once again be on display and Michigan loses a game like 20-14 that will leave us pulling our hair out!
The offense moved the football but didn't finish drives. That created momentum for the opponent, the Michigan defense broke early in those contests, and the avalanches were on. The Buckeyes dominated the third quarter of their big win in 2018 (17-0) as there was a demonstrably lack of adjustments by U-M at halftime (particularly by Don Brown, though at that stage of his career, he couldn't go to zone even if he wanted to as they never practiced it).
All this being said, it is imperative for Michigan to have a good start tomorrow and to finish off drives in the first quarter, ideally with touchdowns not field goals. Especially for a team like Wisconsin that is fighting for confidence, putting the Badgers in a hole would really be catastrophic for a Badgers team that lacks explosive playmakers in the running and passing game (and has a QB on the brink). Obviously U-M can't go into a shell after halftime like it did against Rutgers, but they might just be able to hold onto a lead like they did a week ago if they can get out to a good start.
2) All eyes will be on Cade, obviously. I spoke to a few sources inside the program this week that expressed considerable doubt that Michigan will be able to run consistently against Wisconsin. They promised they would attack the edges more but they weren't confident at all that they would create big plays in the running game or be able to grind the ball down the field. "If we can't pass, we won't win" is the refrain I've heard plenty. Those same sources swear that Cade is a better player in practice than he has shown in games, and that he has it in him, but the "State Street" player vs. the "Main Street" player is a real thing, and Cade very much has to prove he's a Main Street player.
I spoke to a pair of former Michigan QBs this week and both expressed concerns over Cade's mechanics. The theory this past week was that he got his bell rung and after that he was jumpy in the pocket and never followed through on his throws, but those that watch these things closely have been sounding the alarm that his throwing mechanics are all over the place. Different arm slots, footwork, throwing off his back foot, too much off his front foot. Shea Patterson was similar. When you make a great throw, you get labeled a gunslinger, but what we're watching is sandlot football from the QB. Jim Harbaugh has said in the past he doesn't try to screw around too much with mechanics (you don't touch Jim Furyk's golf swing because it works for him) but unless you're one of the all-time greats, inconsistent mechanics often leads to inaccuracy, and we're seeing it with Cade.
Can he overcome that? What happens when he gets hit hard again tomorrow (and the week after and the week after that, etc.)? Will we see JJ? Will we see him anyway as a change-of-pace quarterback to add a little spark. I think we all want to see that, I think we all think it could happen but does history under Jim say they will? There was a plan in 2019 to use Shea and Dylan together and to use Dylan's skill set as a complement. Saw a little bit against Middle Tennessee State, then just one play against Army, then didn't actually see Dylan at Wisconsin until it was 35-0. Harbaugh replaced Wilton Speight for one series against Florida in 2017 after he had thrown two picks, and it seemed to work. He was pretty stubborn with O'Korn, only replacing him with Peters when it was obvious JOK was awful. I guess I just don't have a lot of hope that Jim and this staff will utilize JJ as a complimentary piece or even go to him as a replacement for Cade unless Michigan is losing by 28 points.
3) Wisconsin is very un-Wisconsin this year. They rank 33rd nationally with 203 yards rushing per game but it's a lot worse than that, as they rank 64th averaging 4.3 yards per carry. Michigan's defense last week, however, got exposed by Rutgers on the ground. The Scarlet Knights came into the game averaging 3.3 YPC but had 4.7 against Michigan, finishing with 196 yards on the ground. It helped that QB Noah Vedral was a threat, rushing for 46 yards. Wisconsin doesn't have that. Graham Mertz ran twice last week for zero yards and so far this season is in the negative (largely due to sacks taken). Still, the Badger coaches have had a keen eye all week on looking at weaknesses in that U-M front seven.
Are they there if the Michigan defense is well rested? Maybe, maybe not. After all, I saw Aidan Hutchinson lying on his back after getting pancaked in the fourth quarter. I don't care that it was a tackle and running back blocking him - no way a 100% energy Hutchinson ends up on his butt.
Both teams want to run the football. If they can, they take the so-so QBs out of deciding the game. I've had Michigan people telling me they think it will be a real challenge to do so against the Badgers while I've had Wisconsin personnel tell me they think they can run on U-M. If Wisconsin can and Michigan can't, that's the ball game most likely.
In my perfect world, I'd love to see Michigan come out firing and using its speed (AJ Henning and Blake Corum) to attack the edges of the defense, and give those linebackers reason to pause on every snap, and keep the safety 10-15 yards back and not crashing the line of scrimmage. And then pound Wisconsin with the running game. Do that, and I think Michigan puts the Badgers' offense in a really bad spot and U-M wins this game. I fear that the unimaginative and stubborn playcalling that is a Josh Gattis hallmark will once again be on display and Michigan loses a game like 20-14 that will leave us pulling our hair out!
