John Beilein has recruited and signed 37 players directly out of high school during his tenure at Michigan. Of those 37, 3 have not yet enrolled (Poole, Brooks and Livers), 3 more either were badly hurt before enrolling and had to quickly take a medical scholarship (Cronin and Hatch) or never enrolled (Robin Benzing), and 4 more have completed only 1 year in the program (Simpson, Teske, Davis and Watson). Since several players under Beilein have risen from first year struggles to NBA draft picks Wilson, LeVert, Morris) or likely NBA draft picks still at Michigan (Wagner), it seems unfair at this stage to judge how Simpson, Teske, Davis andor Watson will wind up.
That leaves 27 players we can fairly, or at least reasonably fairly, evaluate. Here are the numbers.
Of those 27, 6 (Burke, Hardaway, Stauskas, McGary, LeVert and Wilson) were drafted in the first round, and 2 more (Robinson and Morris) were drafted in round 2. That means almost 30% of the recruited players were NBA players, a number which will very likely to rise to 1 in every 3 when Mo Wagner goes to the NBA. Of the remaining 18 (counting Wagner in the NBA group), another 6 were, or will be, 3 or 4 year starters on teams which have won either a BT regular season or BT Tournament Championship, or in the case of Derrick Walton, both (Walton, Irvin, MAAR, Morgan, Novak and Douglass). Another 6 have been at least rotation level reserves 10+ minutes per game), whether at Michigan or elsewhere, on BT Championship teams. Spike Albrecht is one obvious player in this category. Max Bielfeldt (albeit at Indiana) is another. Matt Vogrich, Evan Smotrycz, Jon Horford and Mark Donnal each averaged double digit minutes on a BT champion of some type (and Smotrycz also started and/or played a lot on 2 top 20 Maryland teams). Vogrich, Donnal and Smotrycz played below their recruiting rankings. However, to be fair, each spent his senior year in college playing behind an NBA guy(s) (Stauskas, LeVert, Wagner and Jake Layman).
That leaves 6 guys--Blake McLimans, Colton Christian, Carlton Brundidge, Kam Chatman, Ricky Doyle and Aubrey Dawkins-- who have not been meaningful players on very good teams. Dawkins, who was garnering mentions on NBA draft lists after his freshman year, cannot yet be characterized as a "miss"--we'll have to wait and see how he does at USF under his dad. The rest did not work out, at least from an on court perspective.
All of this comes against a backdrop of recruits who, for the most part, were not high up on recruiting lists. Beilein has not signed a consensus top 20 recruit. He has signed 5 top 50 guys (Robinson, McGary, Irvin, Walton and Chatman). Of the remains 22 guys on the evaluation list, 10 (including Wagner, who was not rated by many services because he was a foreign player, but would have been a 4* if he had been included) were top 50-150 guys (Morris, Vogrich, Hardaway, Smotrycz, Burke, Brundidge, Stauskas, Donnal, Wagner and Wilson). The other 12 were outside the top 150.
These are the raw numbers. Make of them what you will. My own thoughts can be summed up this way. As a rule, to be a high level program in college sports, you must recruit at a high level, and BY FAR, the best predictor of recruiting success is recruiting ratings. However, every rule has exceptions, and John Beilein appears to be one of them. This does NOT mean that missing on high level recruits is something that anyone, including especially John Beilein, is happy, or even OK with. It does mean though that Beilein has a unique, and arguably unparalleled ability to identify and develop guys a bit lower on the recruiting ranking food chain. When your coach's hit rate on guys outside the top 150 is way over 50%, and he's had 5 of 10 top 50-150 guys go to the NBA (and likely 6 with Wagner), the rankings (and even the scouting reports and film) on the guys you get seem somehow a bit less meaningful.
That leaves 27 players we can fairly, or at least reasonably fairly, evaluate. Here are the numbers.
Of those 27, 6 (Burke, Hardaway, Stauskas, McGary, LeVert and Wilson) were drafted in the first round, and 2 more (Robinson and Morris) were drafted in round 2. That means almost 30% of the recruited players were NBA players, a number which will very likely to rise to 1 in every 3 when Mo Wagner goes to the NBA. Of the remaining 18 (counting Wagner in the NBA group), another 6 were, or will be, 3 or 4 year starters on teams which have won either a BT regular season or BT Tournament Championship, or in the case of Derrick Walton, both (Walton, Irvin, MAAR, Morgan, Novak and Douglass). Another 6 have been at least rotation level reserves 10+ minutes per game), whether at Michigan or elsewhere, on BT Championship teams. Spike Albrecht is one obvious player in this category. Max Bielfeldt (albeit at Indiana) is another. Matt Vogrich, Evan Smotrycz, Jon Horford and Mark Donnal each averaged double digit minutes on a BT champion of some type (and Smotrycz also started and/or played a lot on 2 top 20 Maryland teams). Vogrich, Donnal and Smotrycz played below their recruiting rankings. However, to be fair, each spent his senior year in college playing behind an NBA guy(s) (Stauskas, LeVert, Wagner and Jake Layman).
That leaves 6 guys--Blake McLimans, Colton Christian, Carlton Brundidge, Kam Chatman, Ricky Doyle and Aubrey Dawkins-- who have not been meaningful players on very good teams. Dawkins, who was garnering mentions on NBA draft lists after his freshman year, cannot yet be characterized as a "miss"--we'll have to wait and see how he does at USF under his dad. The rest did not work out, at least from an on court perspective.
All of this comes against a backdrop of recruits who, for the most part, were not high up on recruiting lists. Beilein has not signed a consensus top 20 recruit. He has signed 5 top 50 guys (Robinson, McGary, Irvin, Walton and Chatman). Of the remains 22 guys on the evaluation list, 10 (including Wagner, who was not rated by many services because he was a foreign player, but would have been a 4* if he had been included) were top 50-150 guys (Morris, Vogrich, Hardaway, Smotrycz, Burke, Brundidge, Stauskas, Donnal, Wagner and Wilson). The other 12 were outside the top 150.
These are the raw numbers. Make of them what you will. My own thoughts can be summed up this way. As a rule, to be a high level program in college sports, you must recruit at a high level, and BY FAR, the best predictor of recruiting success is recruiting ratings. However, every rule has exceptions, and John Beilein appears to be one of them. This does NOT mean that missing on high level recruits is something that anyone, including especially John Beilein, is happy, or even OK with. It does mean though that Beilein has a unique, and arguably unparalleled ability to identify and develop guys a bit lower on the recruiting ranking food chain. When your coach's hit rate on guys outside the top 150 is way over 50%, and he's had 5 of 10 top 50-150 guys go to the NBA (and likely 6 with Wagner), the rankings (and even the scouting reports and film) on the guys you get seem somehow a bit less meaningful.
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