In response to @BlueMonster's post below I thought it would be a good idea to look at where Michigan's recruiting stacks up to the rest of the conference. In the original thread there was some concern about the lack of rivals top 100 prospects that Michigan has brought in during the 2018 class. The concerned was amplified by the number of top 100 prospects that Ohio State and PSU have brought in during the 2018 class. It is certainly true that on paper that OSU and PSU have stronger classes than Michigan in 2018, but does that really speak to a large talent gap? Is Michigan really on the road towards being Northwestern? In order to answer these questions I took a look at the recruiting classes of Ohio State, Michigan, PSU, Michigan State, Wisconsin, ND, and Northwestern since 2014. Going into the 2018 season each team will be made up of the 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018 classes. I measure overall talent in two ways, first building off of @BlueMonster's post I looked at the number of top 100 prospects each program has signed since 2014. Then I looked at the number of top 100 prospects each program will still have on the roster during the 2018 season. Finally, to give every a sense of the overall talent each team will have I look at their average recruiting of their 2018 roster. To do this I just averaged their class rankings from 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018. I used the current rankings for the 2018 class. Each program might move up or down a little bit on signing day, but for the most part their rankings should stay near where they are now. For the purposes of this post I thought it was better to use the data we currently have available rather than speculate on how each team will finish the class. The data and some of my thoughts are posted below.
Ohio State
First, Michigan is not on the road to being Northwestern. Northwestern's recruiting profile doesn't look anything like Michigan's, OSU's, ND's, PSU's, MSU's, or Wisconsin's recruiting profile. So the notion that Michigan is on it's way to becoming NW is ludicrous. The suggestion that one top 20 class could put Michigan on the road to being an also ran in the big is a huge stretch. Michigan's talent level is similar to ND's and PSU's talent level. PSU and ND both have slightly higher average class rankings than Michigan but Michigan will have more top 100 players on their team in the fall.
Interestingly enough Harbaugh was actually set up to win early. On paper Jim's first two teams were more talented than his 2018 group. The 2012 and 2013 classes were ranked 7th and 5th respectfully. They have been replaced with the 2014 and 2015 classes which were close to a Northwestern type class. Harbaugh did a nice job closing the gap with the 2016 and 2017 classes. Even the 2018 class is significant improvement over the 2014 and 2015 groups. Based on the improvement in Michigan's recruiting rankings Michigan is moving towards closing the talent gap between Michigan and OSU. The 2019 class still has a long way to but is off to a great start with one 5 star and two more top 100 four stars.
Now, moving onto a comparison between Michigan and OSU; quite simply OSU is on another level. Since 2014 Ohio State has landed more top 100 prospects than Michigan, Notre Dame, PSU, MSU, and Wisconsin combined. They are the only team from that group to have a top 5 average recruiting class ranking. When you look at the raw numbers it's surprising that they have lost as many games as they have. I suppose that is the silver lining. Even with a significantly more talented roster teams have managed to be competitive with Ohio State. Going back to my point above there is still a gap between Michigan and OSU, but the 2016, 2017, and 2018 classes have narrowed it a bit.
Michigan compares favorably to the rest of the big ten and Notre Dame. Notre Dame and PSU will have higher average recruiting class rankings, but Michigan will have more top 100 players on the roster than PSU and ND. MSU has far fewer top 100 players, but has a similar class average, while Wisconsin has much lower average classes and less top 100 players. From a recruiting perspective Wisconsin and MSU have been able to remain competitive without the same type of talent OSU, Michigan, and PSU has brought in over the past 5 recruiting cycles.
So, some general takeaways: OSU is recruiting on a level that is significantly higher than anyone else in the big ten. There is some legitimacy to the concern that OSU has a significant talent advantage over Michigan, but this is not a new development. The gap between OSU and Michigan has actually closed over the past three recruiting cycles. Michigan is at worst the third most talented team in the conference based on recruiting rankings. I would put them at number 2 behind PSU, but it's debatable. PSU's average recruiting class rank is a little higher, but Michigan has more top end talent. From a recruiting standpoint Michigan is much more similar to OSU, PSU, and ND than they are Northwestern.
Ohio State
- Average recruiting class rank: 3.8
- 2014 ranking: 3rd
- 2015 ranking: 9th
- 2016 ranking: 3rd
- 2017 ranking: 2nd
- 2018 ranking: 2nd
- Number of Rivals Top 100 players signed since 2014: 42
- Players signed:
- Rakewon McMillen
- Damon Webb
- Demetrius Knox
- Curtis Samuel
- Erik Smith
- Jaylan Holmes
- Dante Booker
- Jamarco Jones
- Jerome Baker
- Justin Hilliard
- Mike Weber
- Isaiah Prince
- Nick Bosa
- Keandre Jones
- DeMario McCall
- Jake Hausmann
- Jonathon Cooper
- Binjimen Victor
- Austin Mack
- Michael Jordan
- Dwayne Haskins Jr.
- Chase Young
- Baron Browning
- Jeffrey Okudah
- Wyatt Davis
- Shaun Wade
- Trevon Grimes
- Tate Martell
- Josh Myers
- J.K. Dobbins
- Brendon White
- Tyreke Johnson
- Teradja Mitchell
- Tyreke Smith
- Blue Smith
- Taron Vincent
- Jaelen Gill
- Brian Snead
- Tyler Friday
- Tommy Togiai
- Josh Proctor
- Players signed:
- Number of Top 100 players on the roster in 2018: 35
- Players signed but not on the 2018 roster
- Raekwon McMillen
- Damon Webb
- Curtis Samuel
- Erik Smith
- Jaylan Holmes
- Jerome Baker
- Trevon Grimes
- Players signed but not on the 2018 roster
- Average recruiting class rank: 20.6
- 2014 ranking: 31st
- 2015 ranking: 50th
- 2016 ranking: 4th
- 2017 ranking: 4th
- 2018 ranking: 14th
- Number of top 100 recruits signed since 2014: 15
- Players signed
- Jabrill Peppers
- Mason Cole
- Rashan Gary
- Shea Patterson (not signed but will be on the roster in 2018)
- Devin Asiasi
- Ben Bredeson
- David Long
- Donovan Peoples-Jones
- Jordan Anthony
- Aubrey Solomon
- Cesar Ruiz
- Drew Singleton
- Luiji Vilain
- Tarik Black
- Otis Reese
- Players signed
- Number of top 100 recruits on the roster in 2018: 12
- Players signed but no longer on the 2018 roster
- Jabrill Peppers
- Mason Cole
- Devin Asiasi
- Players signed but no longer on the 2018 roster
- Average Recruiting Class Rank: 11
- 2014 ranking: 11th
- 2015 ranking: 11th
- 2016 ranking: 13th
- 2017 ranking: 13th
- 2018 ranking: 7th
- Number of top 100 recruits signed since 2014: 14
- Players signed
- Quinten Nelson
- Nyles Morgan
- Justin Brent
- Alex Barrs
- Brandon Wimbush
- Daelin Hayes
- Tommy Kraemer
- Javon McKinley
- Brock Wright
- Cole Kmet
- Houston Griffith
- Jack Lamb
- Phil Jurkovec
- Kevin Austin
- Players signed
- Number of top 100 recruits on the roster in 2018: 11
- Players signed but no longer on the 2018 roster
- Quinten Nelson
- Nyles Morgan
- Justin Brent
- Players signed but no longer on the 2018 roster
- Average recruiting class rank: 15.2
- 2014 ranking: 24th
- 2015 ranking: 15th
- 2016 ranking: 21st
- 2017 ranking: 12th
- 2018 ranking: 4th
- Number of top 100 recruits signed since 2014: 7
- Players signed
- Miles Sanders
- Michal Menet
- Lamont Wade
- CJ Thorpe
- Micah Parsons
- Justin Shorter
- Ricky Slade
- Players signed
- Number of top 100 recruits on the roster in 2018: 7
- Players signed but no longer on the 2018 roster: None
- Average recruiting class rank: 23.4
- 2014 ranking: 22nd
- 2015 ranking: 22nd
- 2016 ranking: 18th
- 2017 ranking: 33rd
- 2018 ranking: 22nd
- Number of top 100 recruits signed since 2014: 4
- Players signed
- Malik McDowell
- LJ Scott
- Josh King
- Donnie Corley
- Players signed
- Number of top 100 recruits on the 2018 roster: 1
- Players signed but no longer on the 2018 roster
- Malik McDowell
- Josh King
- Donnie Corley
- Players signed but no longer on the 2018 roster
- Average recruiting class rank: 34.6
- 2014 ranking: 33rd
- 2015 ranking: 37th
- 2016 ranking: 35th
- 2017 ranking: 35th
- 2018 ranking: 33rd
- Number of top 100 recruits signed since 2014: 1
- Players signed
- Danny Davis
- Players signed
- Number of top 100 recruits on the 2018 roster: 1
- Players signed but no longer on the 2018 roster: None
- Average recruiting class rank: 56.4
- 2014 ranking: 67th
- 2015 ranking: 55th
- 2016 ranking: 46th
- 2017 ranking: 55th
- 2018 ranking: 59th
- Number of top 100 recruits singed since 2014: 0
- Number of top 100 recruits on the 2018 roster: 0
First, Michigan is not on the road to being Northwestern. Northwestern's recruiting profile doesn't look anything like Michigan's, OSU's, ND's, PSU's, MSU's, or Wisconsin's recruiting profile. So the notion that Michigan is on it's way to becoming NW is ludicrous. The suggestion that one top 20 class could put Michigan on the road to being an also ran in the big is a huge stretch. Michigan's talent level is similar to ND's and PSU's talent level. PSU and ND both have slightly higher average class rankings than Michigan but Michigan will have more top 100 players on their team in the fall.
Interestingly enough Harbaugh was actually set up to win early. On paper Jim's first two teams were more talented than his 2018 group. The 2012 and 2013 classes were ranked 7th and 5th respectfully. They have been replaced with the 2014 and 2015 classes which were close to a Northwestern type class. Harbaugh did a nice job closing the gap with the 2016 and 2017 classes. Even the 2018 class is significant improvement over the 2014 and 2015 groups. Based on the improvement in Michigan's recruiting rankings Michigan is moving towards closing the talent gap between Michigan and OSU. The 2019 class still has a long way to but is off to a great start with one 5 star and two more top 100 four stars.
Now, moving onto a comparison between Michigan and OSU; quite simply OSU is on another level. Since 2014 Ohio State has landed more top 100 prospects than Michigan, Notre Dame, PSU, MSU, and Wisconsin combined. They are the only team from that group to have a top 5 average recruiting class ranking. When you look at the raw numbers it's surprising that they have lost as many games as they have. I suppose that is the silver lining. Even with a significantly more talented roster teams have managed to be competitive with Ohio State. Going back to my point above there is still a gap between Michigan and OSU, but the 2016, 2017, and 2018 classes have narrowed it a bit.
Michigan compares favorably to the rest of the big ten and Notre Dame. Notre Dame and PSU will have higher average recruiting class rankings, but Michigan will have more top 100 players on the roster than PSU and ND. MSU has far fewer top 100 players, but has a similar class average, while Wisconsin has much lower average classes and less top 100 players. From a recruiting perspective Wisconsin and MSU have been able to remain competitive without the same type of talent OSU, Michigan, and PSU has brought in over the past 5 recruiting cycles.
So, some general takeaways: OSU is recruiting on a level that is significantly higher than anyone else in the big ten. There is some legitimacy to the concern that OSU has a significant talent advantage over Michigan, but this is not a new development. The gap between OSU and Michigan has actually closed over the past three recruiting cycles. Michigan is at worst the third most talented team in the conference based on recruiting rankings. I would put them at number 2 behind PSU, but it's debatable. PSU's average recruiting class rank is a little higher, but Michigan has more top end talent. From a recruiting standpoint Michigan is much more similar to OSU, PSU, and ND than they are Northwestern.
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