Figured since it was Friday lunch, this ould be a fun topic - are we a Top 5 Hoops program over the last decade?
Since 2011, I'd say that we are right there. I pulled some data and assigned a somewhat arbitrary point system to back it up. Basically I looked at what I figured were the Top 10 programs over the last 10 years and then looked at their successes.
I awarded 1 point for every NCAA Tournament win, 1 point for every conference championship (tourney or regular season), 3 points for every Final Four appearance, 4 points for making the title game, and 6 points for winning a championship. I think you can quibble that conference regular season championships should be worth more than conference tourneys, but honestly I'm not sure either matter that much in terms of national perception so I left them as equal. I also discounted Gonzaga's conference championships by 50% because of the strength of their conference. Here is what I came up with:
A few additional notes:
Feel free to tell me what I didn't properly account for, but I think we have a strong argument that we are right there. And certainly we are the top program in the Big Ten.
Since 2011, I'd say that we are right there. I pulled some data and assigned a somewhat arbitrary point system to back it up. Basically I looked at what I figured were the Top 10 programs over the last 10 years and then looked at their successes.
I awarded 1 point for every NCAA Tournament win, 1 point for every conference championship (tourney or regular season), 3 points for every Final Four appearance, 4 points for making the title game, and 6 points for winning a championship. I think you can quibble that conference regular season championships should be worth more than conference tourneys, but honestly I'm not sure either matter that much in terms of national perception so I left them as equal. I also discounted Gonzaga's conference championships by 50% because of the strength of their conference. Here is what I came up with:
- Kentucky - 9 conference titles, 24 NCAA Tournament wins, 4 Final Fours, 2 Title Games, 1 Championship - 63 total points
- Villanova - 11 conference titles, 15 NCAA Tournament wins, 2 Final Fours, 2 Title Games, 2 Championships - 52 total points
- North Carolina - 6 conference titles, 23 NCAA Tournament wins, 2 Final Fours, 2 Title Games, 1 Championship - 49 total points
- Kansas - 13 conference titles, 24 NCAA Tournament wins, 2 Final Fours, 1 Title Game, 0 Championships - 47 total points
- Michigan - 5 conference titles, 21 NCAA Tournament wins, 2 Final Fours, 2 Title Games, 0 Championships - 40 total points
- Virginia - 11 conference titles, 14 NCAA Tournament wins, 1 Final Four, 1 Title Game, 1 Championship - 38 total points
- Gonzaga - 19 conference titles (50%), 21 NCAA Tournament wins, 1 Final Four, 1 Title Game, 0 Championships - 37.5 total points
- Duke - 3 conference titles, 20 NCAA Tournament wins, 1 Final Four, 1 Title Game, 1 Championship - 36 total points
- Wisconsin - 3 conference titles, 18 NCAA Tournament wins, 2 Final Fours, 1 Title Game, 0 Championships - 31 total points
- Michigan State - 8 conference titles, 17 NCAA Tournament wins, 2 Final Fours, 0 title Games, 0 Championships - 31 total points
A few additional notes:
- I was surprised by how little Duke has accomplished over the last decade. No conference regular season titles, and only the 2015 championship run. They have taken a bit of a step back.
- Gonzaga can leapfrog us on this list if they make the Final Four and we don't. And if they win the title they'd jump Kansas too based on my metrics. On the flip side, if we were to win three more games and make the title game we'd leap over Kansas.
- MSU was probably hurt a little bit by not having an NCAA tournament last year, but even another Final Four would've had them still behind us. It is also interesting to note that they are the only team on this list not to have played for a title.
- If you take out conference championships altogether, Michigan is actually higher on this list. But then it becomes more about who are the top progams in the NCAA Tournament which feels like a different metric.
- The other "flaw" with my system is that it might give too much weight to title game appearances. If you take those out and just award points for Final Fours and Titles Michigan drops behind Virginia and Gonzaga and is tied with Duke. But my personal feeling is that playing for the title has a certain cache. You're one of just two teams with a spotlight on you. I think that matters.
Feel free to tell me what I didn't properly account for, but I think we have a strong argument that we are right there. And certainly we are the top program in the Big Ten.
