The latest edition of INSIDE THE FORT, starting with football recruiting information -
The biggest questions in the minds of Michigan fans revolve around the top quarterback on the board, Rancho Santa Margarita (Calif.) Santa Margarita Catholic four-star K.J. Costello. The 6-4, 220-pounder is the No. 2 pro-style passer and No. 25 overall prospect nationally and has Michigan in his final three along with USC and Stanford.
The overarching prognosis for Michigan has remained static for several weeks now: if he makes a visit to Ann Arbor, the Maize and Blue will have a good chance to steal him away from his home-state schools. Otherwise, he's bound to be a Trojan or Cardinal. What has fluctuated in his recruitment has been the likelihood of making that trip to Michigan. A couple weeks ago at the Rivals Quarterback Challenge in Las Vegas, he seemed very optimistic that he'd be able to head to campus. Last weekend at the Pylon 7-on-7 national tournament in Vegas, he sounded less sunny on the idea.
With his weekends booked (and the desire to make a decision soon), it would likely have to be a mid-week trip. That's difficult for K.J., who'd have to miss school, and his father, who'd have to take time off work. Those factors have played into the diminishing possibility that he makes the trip.
Costello feels the pressure to make a decision soon - though obviously 11 months out from Signing Day, he doesn't have to - which plays against Michigan. They need more time, so he can take the visit to campus, and for whatever reason (in part because he wants to help build a class, but even that is something that won't be greatly impacted by a date a couple weeks in either direction), Costello isn't planning to take his. In fact, we've heard rumblings that a pledge could come as early as this weekend.
Unless and until he makes the journey to Ann Arbor, we won't be predicting he dons Maize and Blue.
The rest of Michigan recruiting, aside from new offers galore, seems quiet - too quiet. Quite simply, there's not a lot of movement to be expected until out-of-region prospects (whom Michigan is targeting in much greater proportion than under Brady Hoke's staff) can head to campus.
That many of them are planning - tentatively or otherwise - to see U-M during spring ball is probably a little more positive than we'd expected. We'll see if anything results from it, but patience is a virtue at this point.
Michigan isn't loading up on early-deciding Midwest kids under Harbaugh, so the reality of the past four years of recruiting simply doesn't apply anymore. Sure, they'd gladly take early commitments (Miami is loading up, with 16 already pledged), but it's tougher to target far-flung prospects, especially before they see town.
That does mean more fireworks from a recruiting perspective during the season, and likely more exciting visitors lists. It also means the summer is an important time to pay attention to recruiting, because that's when the timing is right for high school prospects to make it to town (and the camp - particularly one-day sessions - could be much more exciting than past years).
More recruiting -
The current coaches haven't pursued many players who were targets under the previous Michigan staff heavily. They certainly aren't publicizing their dropping off U-M's board, but enough of them are willing to be frank when asked if they've heard from the new staff.
One such player is Traverse City (Mich.) West offensive tackle Thiyo Lukusa. He says he hasn't heard from the new staff and doesn't believe they are recruiting him. In his particular case, it was a change that got started under Hoke's staff, but there are several others in a similar boat.
Like they don't want things publicized, we won't make it our business to air dirty laundry by dropping players off the offer list, but we'll gladly clarify on the board if there are any questions about it.
One reason Lukusa might not be as high on the board (if he's on it at all) lately is because Michigan actually looks pretty strong for a number of other prospects. Virginia four-star Clark Yarbrough remains high on the Maize and Blue, Georgia four-star E.J. Price calls the Wolverines second on his list, Michigan remains in good position for Wisconsin four-star Ben Bredeson, and local four-star Michael Jordan of Plymouth High School holds U-M atop his list.
It's very early in the process (with just one commitment at the group, from Illinois Rivals100 lineman Erik Swenson), and we fall into a trap many times of thinking "there are more prospects who might commit if given the chance than there are spots," even when all those guys are four-stars or better.
Michigan won't be in that type of situation when the time comes for these kids to start committing, but they're definitely in good position for a solid-to-excellent offensive line haul.
With Costello likely out of the picture, meanwhile, the quarterback situation for the Wolverines gets a little curious for the 2016 class. The coaches will now have to identify who will take over the No. 1 spot on the quarterback big board, but there are options.
One person who could slide into the top spot is Avon (Ind.) High School quarterback Brandon Peters. The 6-4, 195 pound signal caller is a solid prospect in his own right. He's considered the No. 211 overall prospect according to Rivals.com and carries a four-star rating.
Peters recently confirmed that he will be in attendance for the Michigan Spring Game April 4 and actually gave a little insight as to where he is in regards to his interest in the Maize and Blue.
When Peters was asked if a commitment was possible during his visit to Ann Arbor, he responded with an open-ended answer that made it seem quite possible.
"I don't know if there's a chance for a commitment," he said with a laugh. "I do like Michigan a lot though. I can't wait to go."
He responded with the same laugh and "I don't know," when asked if he had at least thought about committing while on the visit making it seem like he probably has. Peters also inquired about the turnout generated by the Spring Game, which this year, is likely to be more energetic and populated than ever. He's interested and intrigued and if the visit goes well a commitment definitely seems like a realistic possibility.
****
To football -
To win big in college football, you need both athletes and development. Michigan has acquired pretty good talent through recruiting in the past four years, but the development has been questionable. For some players, the level at which they're capable of performing is just higher than even top recruits, no matter how hard the others try to catch him.
One such player, it should come as no surprise, is sophomore safety Jabrill Peppers.
"Hard work beats talent if talent doesn't work hard" applies in no way to the former five-star, because he's the most naturally gifted AND one of the hardest-working players on the team.
Most of Michigan's other defensive backs are naturally talented as well, and some perhaps didn't leave high school with a reputation for great work ethic. The high school coach of one such player recounts a story of talking to another Wolverine about his former standout.
"He's not falling back into the trap of coasting like he did in high school, is he?" The coach recalls asking.
"No coach," he teammate replied. "He's working as hard as he ever has - even harder. Peppers is just better."
There have been times people have been leaving the building to find Peppers working out at 11 p.m.
We're not trying to put unrealistic expectations on the kid before he gets any real playing time (a few downs before being injured early last season doesn't count). Still, Michigan needs more difference-makers like Peppers. The natural ability and work ethic combine to make a special player.
All is quiet on the football front this week as Michigan players are enjoying spring break. Last week, the Wolverines held three practices and, of course, all eyes were on the quarterbacks. While different observers at practice came away from the sessions with different opinions on true freshman Alex Malzone, everyone we've spoken to is beating the drum for sophomore (redshirt freshman) Wilton Speight, who looked more poised in the pocket than junior Shane Morris.
Speight might not have the physical skills of the laser-armed Morris, but those that have seen him in-person believe he has a better temperament to be the kind of quarterback Jim Harbaugh loves to coach - one that can be a coach on the field, is smart enough to diagnose a defense and collaborate on the sideline to make adjustments, and commands the huddle as the unquestioned leader.
We're not in the business of knocking on players, but it's clear that Morris still has much to work on in all three areas that Speight excels at.
In the running back room, it has been assumed that junior (redshirt sophomore) Ty Isaac will seize the position this spring in his first season eligible after transferring from USC, but watch out for junior De'Veon Smith, a source shares.
"I think Smith could be the guy that benefits from the most from an improved offensive line because of his vision," the observer noted. "I think the one thing both he and [junior] Derrick Green really struggled with last year is that the holes were open for such a short amount of time that they felt this urgency to attack them, and didn't have the patience to see if anything else developed because they knew hesitation, from their rookie years, meant a tackle for loss.
"Both of them, and Smith especially, have better vision and patience than they've shown, but it's now a bad habit and they're going to have to be broken of that this spring."
On the defensive side of the ball, one former Wolverine that has been keeping close tabs on the program was shocked to hear that defensive coordinator DJ Durkin intends to run a 3-4 and a 4-3 defense this fall.
"NFL teams won't even try that," he said, before noting it's likely more about personnel than scheme. "I think what he has are three or four guys that are not really stout defensive ends but are not really strongside linebackers either and he's looking at the best way he can utilize their talent.
"One when to do that is to have those guys work as rush ends where they have their hand on the ground sometimes but sometimes they're standing up and coming as a pass rusher.
"I'd be surprised if we saw the 3-4 much on running downs because, honestly, they have too many quality defensive tackles to not have two of those guys on the field the majority of the time.
"I don't know, it's all very interesting. I'm intrigued, and I know Durkin has run both defenses at Florida, but I'm sort of like everyone else - sitting back and waiting to see how it unfolds."
If they do use the 3-4, look for senior Mario Ojemudia to be one guy that could benefit. The 6-3, 252-pounder has never seemed completely comfortable with his hand on the ground, and could be better suited as an outside/rush linebacker.
"To me, he's the prototype for that position because he has the strength to go up against an offensive tackle but if you can give him a running start, or create blitz schemes where he's ducking back inside and splitting a guard and tackle - a kid like him, with his athleticism and speed could really be something if you take him out of the trenches and give him a chance to attack with some momentum," the source noted.
****
To basketball and recruiting now -
The 2015/2016 situation is more evidence of how quickly things can change when it comes to recruiting. At one point the Wolverines led for four-star Cali. forward T.J. Leaf, who ended up at Arizona, and point guard Derryck Thornton Jr. (6-1, Rivals.com's No. 8 senior nationally). They were right there (and still are) for Gladstone, N.J., shooting guard Tyus Battle (6-6, No. 15) and Madison, Ala., Madison Academy's Josh Langford (6-5, No. 20).
They've faded on a number of prospects and are even neck and neck with Ohio State (the boyhood favorite) for 6-7 Seth Towns (No. 124) of Columbus, Ohio, Northland.
So now U-M coaches are back looking at class of 2015 recruiting and more immediate help. German Moritz Wagner is still a real possibility, and we wouldn't be surprised - at all - if Michigan signed him. Michigan reached out to Cornell senior Shonn Miller two days ago, too - the 16.3 PPG scorer has to spend a fifth year outside the Ivy League per conference rules, and he'll take a close look at the Wolverines. We don't believe Michigan is the frontrunner to land the one-year rental (he wants a prominent role), but it's possible.
The 2016 situation is far from hopeless, too. Detroit U-D Jesuit point guard Cassius Winston (6-0, No. 33) is Michigan and Michigan State at this point, though Rivals.com's Eric Bossi expects some schools outside the state to make a push for him given the absence of outstanding point guards in 2015. As it stands, U-M is in serious play for Winston, Battle, Langford and Towns, having landed the No. 97 player in the class in Medina, Ohio big man Jon Teske.
Expect them to do a lot of research during the spring AAU season, too, on players in 2016. More targets will emerge, and it could be someone we've not even heard of yet.
On the basketball scene, we continue to hear more buzz that junior Caris LeVert could be leaning toward returning for his senior year. Some in Columbus cite "unfinished business" and the fact that he'll probably be viewed as a late first round pick as factors.
****
Finishing with hockey -
The good news of late is that the defensive-zone coverage is improving and that goalie play is stabilizing as junior Steve Racine has put together five straight quality performances.
Michigan will be careful with Racine going forward, knowing his confidence is fragile, and any small cracks could lead to fissures.
"Red [Berenson] has always been protective of his goalies but he never had to worry about confidence with guys like Al Montoya or Shawn Hunwick, but I think the thing the coaches have learned this year about their goalies, more than even last year, is that their confidence walks a really thin line," a source at Yost shared.
"I think that's why they're so eager to bring someone in next season to compete with these guys, because you just never know, from one game to the next, one period to the next, if they're going to have it or if a bad play, a bad goal, will just completely throw them off their game."
Meanwhile, fans have asked us before whether Berenson could be in trouble if Michigan doesn't make the NCAA Tournament for the third straight season, and we're confident in saying no, he will not be forced into an early retirement.
However, there are some rumblings that when Berenson's contract runs out in 2015-16, that that's it. That U-M is ready to move on.
While there will be no shortage of candidates, the four names we hear most often are: Michigan Tech head coach (and former Berenson assistant) Mel Pearson, current assistant coach Brian Wiseman, Union College head coach Rick Bennett and Grand Rapids Griffins (AHL) head coach Jeff Blashill.
If we had to say, Blashill would be the home-run hire. While he has been tabbed to one day replace Mike Babcock as the Detroit Red Wings coach, that day doesn't appear to be happening anytime soon and Blashill is a former college coach (Western Michigan) that would receive encouragement from Babcock to assume Berenson's throne.
We're still a ways from that day, though, so we'll leave a more in-depth coaching search conversation for another time.
The biggest questions in the minds of Michigan fans revolve around the top quarterback on the board, Rancho Santa Margarita (Calif.) Santa Margarita Catholic four-star K.J. Costello. The 6-4, 220-pounder is the No. 2 pro-style passer and No. 25 overall prospect nationally and has Michigan in his final three along with USC and Stanford.
The overarching prognosis for Michigan has remained static for several weeks now: if he makes a visit to Ann Arbor, the Maize and Blue will have a good chance to steal him away from his home-state schools. Otherwise, he's bound to be a Trojan or Cardinal. What has fluctuated in his recruitment has been the likelihood of making that trip to Michigan. A couple weeks ago at the Rivals Quarterback Challenge in Las Vegas, he seemed very optimistic that he'd be able to head to campus. Last weekend at the Pylon 7-on-7 national tournament in Vegas, he sounded less sunny on the idea.
With his weekends booked (and the desire to make a decision soon), it would likely have to be a mid-week trip. That's difficult for K.J., who'd have to miss school, and his father, who'd have to take time off work. Those factors have played into the diminishing possibility that he makes the trip.
Costello feels the pressure to make a decision soon - though obviously 11 months out from Signing Day, he doesn't have to - which plays against Michigan. They need more time, so he can take the visit to campus, and for whatever reason (in part because he wants to help build a class, but even that is something that won't be greatly impacted by a date a couple weeks in either direction), Costello isn't planning to take his. In fact, we've heard rumblings that a pledge could come as early as this weekend.
Unless and until he makes the journey to Ann Arbor, we won't be predicting he dons Maize and Blue.
The rest of Michigan recruiting, aside from new offers galore, seems quiet - too quiet. Quite simply, there's not a lot of movement to be expected until out-of-region prospects (whom Michigan is targeting in much greater proportion than under Brady Hoke's staff) can head to campus.
That many of them are planning - tentatively or otherwise - to see U-M during spring ball is probably a little more positive than we'd expected. We'll see if anything results from it, but patience is a virtue at this point.
Michigan isn't loading up on early-deciding Midwest kids under Harbaugh, so the reality of the past four years of recruiting simply doesn't apply anymore. Sure, they'd gladly take early commitments (Miami is loading up, with 16 already pledged), but it's tougher to target far-flung prospects, especially before they see town.
That does mean more fireworks from a recruiting perspective during the season, and likely more exciting visitors lists. It also means the summer is an important time to pay attention to recruiting, because that's when the timing is right for high school prospects to make it to town (and the camp - particularly one-day sessions - could be much more exciting than past years).
More recruiting -
The current coaches haven't pursued many players who were targets under the previous Michigan staff heavily. They certainly aren't publicizing their dropping off U-M's board, but enough of them are willing to be frank when asked if they've heard from the new staff.
One such player is Traverse City (Mich.) West offensive tackle Thiyo Lukusa. He says he hasn't heard from the new staff and doesn't believe they are recruiting him. In his particular case, it was a change that got started under Hoke's staff, but there are several others in a similar boat.
Like they don't want things publicized, we won't make it our business to air dirty laundry by dropping players off the offer list, but we'll gladly clarify on the board if there are any questions about it.
One reason Lukusa might not be as high on the board (if he's on it at all) lately is because Michigan actually looks pretty strong for a number of other prospects. Virginia four-star Clark Yarbrough remains high on the Maize and Blue, Georgia four-star E.J. Price calls the Wolverines second on his list, Michigan remains in good position for Wisconsin four-star Ben Bredeson, and local four-star Michael Jordan of Plymouth High School holds U-M atop his list.
It's very early in the process (with just one commitment at the group, from Illinois Rivals100 lineman Erik Swenson), and we fall into a trap many times of thinking "there are more prospects who might commit if given the chance than there are spots," even when all those guys are four-stars or better.
Michigan won't be in that type of situation when the time comes for these kids to start committing, but they're definitely in good position for a solid-to-excellent offensive line haul.
With Costello likely out of the picture, meanwhile, the quarterback situation for the Wolverines gets a little curious for the 2016 class. The coaches will now have to identify who will take over the No. 1 spot on the quarterback big board, but there are options.
One person who could slide into the top spot is Avon (Ind.) High School quarterback Brandon Peters. The 6-4, 195 pound signal caller is a solid prospect in his own right. He's considered the No. 211 overall prospect according to Rivals.com and carries a four-star rating.
Peters recently confirmed that he will be in attendance for the Michigan Spring Game April 4 and actually gave a little insight as to where he is in regards to his interest in the Maize and Blue.
When Peters was asked if a commitment was possible during his visit to Ann Arbor, he responded with an open-ended answer that made it seem quite possible.
"I don't know if there's a chance for a commitment," he said with a laugh. "I do like Michigan a lot though. I can't wait to go."
He responded with the same laugh and "I don't know," when asked if he had at least thought about committing while on the visit making it seem like he probably has. Peters also inquired about the turnout generated by the Spring Game, which this year, is likely to be more energetic and populated than ever. He's interested and intrigued and if the visit goes well a commitment definitely seems like a realistic possibility.
****
To football -
To win big in college football, you need both athletes and development. Michigan has acquired pretty good talent through recruiting in the past four years, but the development has been questionable. For some players, the level at which they're capable of performing is just higher than even top recruits, no matter how hard the others try to catch him.
One such player, it should come as no surprise, is sophomore safety Jabrill Peppers.
"Hard work beats talent if talent doesn't work hard" applies in no way to the former five-star, because he's the most naturally gifted AND one of the hardest-working players on the team.
Most of Michigan's other defensive backs are naturally talented as well, and some perhaps didn't leave high school with a reputation for great work ethic. The high school coach of one such player recounts a story of talking to another Wolverine about his former standout.
"He's not falling back into the trap of coasting like he did in high school, is he?" The coach recalls asking.
"No coach," he teammate replied. "He's working as hard as he ever has - even harder. Peppers is just better."
There have been times people have been leaving the building to find Peppers working out at 11 p.m.
We're not trying to put unrealistic expectations on the kid before he gets any real playing time (a few downs before being injured early last season doesn't count). Still, Michigan needs more difference-makers like Peppers. The natural ability and work ethic combine to make a special player.
All is quiet on the football front this week as Michigan players are enjoying spring break. Last week, the Wolverines held three practices and, of course, all eyes were on the quarterbacks. While different observers at practice came away from the sessions with different opinions on true freshman Alex Malzone, everyone we've spoken to is beating the drum for sophomore (redshirt freshman) Wilton Speight, who looked more poised in the pocket than junior Shane Morris.
Speight might not have the physical skills of the laser-armed Morris, but those that have seen him in-person believe he has a better temperament to be the kind of quarterback Jim Harbaugh loves to coach - one that can be a coach on the field, is smart enough to diagnose a defense and collaborate on the sideline to make adjustments, and commands the huddle as the unquestioned leader.
We're not in the business of knocking on players, but it's clear that Morris still has much to work on in all three areas that Speight excels at.
In the running back room, it has been assumed that junior (redshirt sophomore) Ty Isaac will seize the position this spring in his first season eligible after transferring from USC, but watch out for junior De'Veon Smith, a source shares.
"I think Smith could be the guy that benefits from the most from an improved offensive line because of his vision," the observer noted. "I think the one thing both he and [junior] Derrick Green really struggled with last year is that the holes were open for such a short amount of time that they felt this urgency to attack them, and didn't have the patience to see if anything else developed because they knew hesitation, from their rookie years, meant a tackle for loss.
"Both of them, and Smith especially, have better vision and patience than they've shown, but it's now a bad habit and they're going to have to be broken of that this spring."
On the defensive side of the ball, one former Wolverine that has been keeping close tabs on the program was shocked to hear that defensive coordinator DJ Durkin intends to run a 3-4 and a 4-3 defense this fall.
"NFL teams won't even try that," he said, before noting it's likely more about personnel than scheme. "I think what he has are three or four guys that are not really stout defensive ends but are not really strongside linebackers either and he's looking at the best way he can utilize their talent.
"One when to do that is to have those guys work as rush ends where they have their hand on the ground sometimes but sometimes they're standing up and coming as a pass rusher.
"I'd be surprised if we saw the 3-4 much on running downs because, honestly, they have too many quality defensive tackles to not have two of those guys on the field the majority of the time.
"I don't know, it's all very interesting. I'm intrigued, and I know Durkin has run both defenses at Florida, but I'm sort of like everyone else - sitting back and waiting to see how it unfolds."
If they do use the 3-4, look for senior Mario Ojemudia to be one guy that could benefit. The 6-3, 252-pounder has never seemed completely comfortable with his hand on the ground, and could be better suited as an outside/rush linebacker.
"To me, he's the prototype for that position because he has the strength to go up against an offensive tackle but if you can give him a running start, or create blitz schemes where he's ducking back inside and splitting a guard and tackle - a kid like him, with his athleticism and speed could really be something if you take him out of the trenches and give him a chance to attack with some momentum," the source noted.
****
To basketball and recruiting now -
The 2015/2016 situation is more evidence of how quickly things can change when it comes to recruiting. At one point the Wolverines led for four-star Cali. forward T.J. Leaf, who ended up at Arizona, and point guard Derryck Thornton Jr. (6-1, Rivals.com's No. 8 senior nationally). They were right there (and still are) for Gladstone, N.J., shooting guard Tyus Battle (6-6, No. 15) and Madison, Ala., Madison Academy's Josh Langford (6-5, No. 20).
They've faded on a number of prospects and are even neck and neck with Ohio State (the boyhood favorite) for 6-7 Seth Towns (No. 124) of Columbus, Ohio, Northland.
So now U-M coaches are back looking at class of 2015 recruiting and more immediate help. German Moritz Wagner is still a real possibility, and we wouldn't be surprised - at all - if Michigan signed him. Michigan reached out to Cornell senior Shonn Miller two days ago, too - the 16.3 PPG scorer has to spend a fifth year outside the Ivy League per conference rules, and he'll take a close look at the Wolverines. We don't believe Michigan is the frontrunner to land the one-year rental (he wants a prominent role), but it's possible.
The 2016 situation is far from hopeless, too. Detroit U-D Jesuit point guard Cassius Winston (6-0, No. 33) is Michigan and Michigan State at this point, though Rivals.com's Eric Bossi expects some schools outside the state to make a push for him given the absence of outstanding point guards in 2015. As it stands, U-M is in serious play for Winston, Battle, Langford and Towns, having landed the No. 97 player in the class in Medina, Ohio big man Jon Teske.
Expect them to do a lot of research during the spring AAU season, too, on players in 2016. More targets will emerge, and it could be someone we've not even heard of yet.
On the basketball scene, we continue to hear more buzz that junior Caris LeVert could be leaning toward returning for his senior year. Some in Columbus cite "unfinished business" and the fact that he'll probably be viewed as a late first round pick as factors.
****
Finishing with hockey -
The good news of late is that the defensive-zone coverage is improving and that goalie play is stabilizing as junior Steve Racine has put together five straight quality performances.
Michigan will be careful with Racine going forward, knowing his confidence is fragile, and any small cracks could lead to fissures.
"Red [Berenson] has always been protective of his goalies but he never had to worry about confidence with guys like Al Montoya or Shawn Hunwick, but I think the thing the coaches have learned this year about their goalies, more than even last year, is that their confidence walks a really thin line," a source at Yost shared.
"I think that's why they're so eager to bring someone in next season to compete with these guys, because you just never know, from one game to the next, one period to the next, if they're going to have it or if a bad play, a bad goal, will just completely throw them off their game."
Meanwhile, fans have asked us before whether Berenson could be in trouble if Michigan doesn't make the NCAA Tournament for the third straight season, and we're confident in saying no, he will not be forced into an early retirement.
However, there are some rumblings that when Berenson's contract runs out in 2015-16, that that's it. That U-M is ready to move on.
While there will be no shortage of candidates, the four names we hear most often are: Michigan Tech head coach (and former Berenson assistant) Mel Pearson, current assistant coach Brian Wiseman, Union College head coach Rick Bennett and Grand Rapids Griffins (AHL) head coach Jeff Blashill.
If we had to say, Blashill would be the home-run hire. While he has been tabbed to one day replace Mike Babcock as the Detroit Red Wings coach, that day doesn't appear to be happening anytime soon and Blashill is a former college coach (Western Michigan) that would receive encouragement from Babcock to assume Berenson's throne.
We're still a ways from that day, though, so we'll leave a more in-depth coaching search conversation for another time.
