..and Jay Wright have very similar trajectories at their respective schools through the first eleven or so years.
In both cases you have a coach who took a few years to develop a very good program, then held that status for a handful of years, hit a bump for a couple of years and then became an elite program.
In Beilein's case it was his fourth year when the program started a run of very good teams (yes, we all know of the second year NCAA, but third year was rough). That run lasted four seasons where Michigan was knocking on the door of being considered a top 10 "program". Then the bump happened for two and a half years on the merits of early departures and injuries, before rebounding to a program that is on the verge of being in the conversation of elite.
Wright had a similar arc. First three years with no NCAA, then a peak of 6-7 seasons where they were a very good program, before hitting a 2-3 year lull. The last five years have been elite.
In the first eleven years, JB has a win percentage of .634 with a mark of .561 in conference. Wright was at .646 and .559 respectively. Those numbers are good for both, but not overwhelming.
How did Wright get Nova to elite status? He got two top 40-100 kids in each class from 2012-14 and then snagged a top 25 guy in 15 & 16. I believe Beilein has found a similar sweet spot as well in recruiting. The crew of Wilson, Bajema and Zeb are right in that ranking mold. We are currently seeing similar talent on the roster at the moment as well and it has produced an elite team.
The one thing that allowed Wright to win two titles is that he never lost a kid early from the run of 14-18 until this year. This is somewhat of a Captain Obvious, but if JB can merely have the luck in only losing one guy early for each of the next handful of years then we can expect similar staggering win-loss records as Villanova. Whether it results in ships is a crapshoot, but Michigan will be in the conversation each season similar to how Nova's name was thrown around the last few years.
In both cases you have a coach who took a few years to develop a very good program, then held that status for a handful of years, hit a bump for a couple of years and then became an elite program.
In Beilein's case it was his fourth year when the program started a run of very good teams (yes, we all know of the second year NCAA, but third year was rough). That run lasted four seasons where Michigan was knocking on the door of being considered a top 10 "program". Then the bump happened for two and a half years on the merits of early departures and injuries, before rebounding to a program that is on the verge of being in the conversation of elite.
Wright had a similar arc. First three years with no NCAA, then a peak of 6-7 seasons where they were a very good program, before hitting a 2-3 year lull. The last five years have been elite.
In the first eleven years, JB has a win percentage of .634 with a mark of .561 in conference. Wright was at .646 and .559 respectively. Those numbers are good for both, but not overwhelming.
How did Wright get Nova to elite status? He got two top 40-100 kids in each class from 2012-14 and then snagged a top 25 guy in 15 & 16. I believe Beilein has found a similar sweet spot as well in recruiting. The crew of Wilson, Bajema and Zeb are right in that ranking mold. We are currently seeing similar talent on the roster at the moment as well and it has produced an elite team.
The one thing that allowed Wright to win two titles is that he never lost a kid early from the run of 14-18 until this year. This is somewhat of a Captain Obvious, but if JB can merely have the luck in only losing one guy early for each of the next handful of years then we can expect similar staggering win-loss records as Villanova. Whether it results in ships is a crapshoot, but Michigan will be in the conversation each season similar to how Nova's name was thrown around the last few years.
