Now I'm not ready to claim they WILL remain elite offensively, but they could. The past 2 seasons Michigan has finished the season ranked #1 on KenPom in adjusted offensive efficiency (out of 350+ teams). Wake Forest with Chris Paul and UNC with Tyler Hansbrough are the only 2 school to repeat at #1 in that measure since KenPom began tracking in 2002. Furthermore, Michigan just had the single highest adjusted OE ever recorded by KenPom last season. So they've been beyond great on offense for 2 years running. But even before that Beilein had them ranked #19 three seasons ago.
So that's where we start. But going into next season there are massive personnel losses to replace. No more Jordan Morgan, Jon Horford, Nik Stauskas, Glenn Robinson III, or even Mitch McGary. That's a lot to replace. But there are still some pretty darn good players and I'd argue more talent than three years ago. Just gotta have a few guys pan out and/or make expected leaps in production.
Beilein has really transformed Michigan into a team that relies heavily on the pick and roll the last 4 seasons (since Darius Morris sophomore season). Last year Stauskas was our primary option on the PNR and LeVert was our secondary option. Nik was elite and Caris was very good as well. So right off the bat we need to replace some major attempts as the ball handler on the PNR. LeVert is the obvious option to be our go to guy and he should do quite well. He's both an outstanding shooter and a talented ball handler that can get to the rim. Hopefully he can continue to grow as a passer. But who else will we use? Obvious option is Derrick Walton. He didn't get many chances last season, but has the obvious skillset to shine as the ball handler in the PNR. I think he can handle a lot of possessions and do so efficiently. Another option is using Kam Chatman as the ballhandler. It gets a little more awkward if he's the 4 and has the 5 man screening for him as opponents will be more apt to just straight switch the defenders on the pick, but Chatman has a pretty unique skillset with his ballhandling and passing that should let him be a 3rd talented PNR player on the floor which is really more than we had last season (he reminds me of Kyle Anderson from UCLA except a lefty).
So that's 3 guys that should all be efficient creating off the pick and roll. But who is setting the picks? Donnal is the obvious choice for most as he figures to get the most minutes at the 5. He probably won't be as talented as Jordan Morgan rolling to the rim, but what he gives up there he might more than make up with pick and pop ability as a shooter that will completely change how teams have to defend the PNR. I mean opposing coaches probably pull there hair out trying to get their rotations and angles just right on their defense against Michigan's PNR, but now that we have a big man that can either roll to the hoop or pop out for a 3 it essentially doubles the number of possible permutations as the play develops. Evan Smotrycz had some good offensive success here as the 5 man and had some big games where he tortured opposing big men, he just didn't want to play the 5 and he didn't want to play in the Big Ten. Hopefully Donnal can provide similar offensive production with better energy on D and the glass. Ricky Doyle figures to be more of a classic roll man when he is setting the picks.
But what about Zak Irvin? Our highest rated recruit last year came in and essentially was nothing but a long range gunner last season. He really excelled at it, but he rarely even attempted to make plays off the dribble. Next season you'd expect he will look to add some ball handling and dribble drive to his arsenal, though I expect him to still do most of his damage behind the arc.
So will we rank #1 again in adjusted OE on KenPom? Doubtful. It's never been done 3 years in a row. The last 2 years we've ridden a nationally elite efficient superstar (Burke and Stauskas) and we likely won't have that next year. But we do have the talent to be top 10ish or perhaps even top 5.
So that's where we start. But going into next season there are massive personnel losses to replace. No more Jordan Morgan, Jon Horford, Nik Stauskas, Glenn Robinson III, or even Mitch McGary. That's a lot to replace. But there are still some pretty darn good players and I'd argue more talent than three years ago. Just gotta have a few guys pan out and/or make expected leaps in production.
Beilein has really transformed Michigan into a team that relies heavily on the pick and roll the last 4 seasons (since Darius Morris sophomore season). Last year Stauskas was our primary option on the PNR and LeVert was our secondary option. Nik was elite and Caris was very good as well. So right off the bat we need to replace some major attempts as the ball handler on the PNR. LeVert is the obvious option to be our go to guy and he should do quite well. He's both an outstanding shooter and a talented ball handler that can get to the rim. Hopefully he can continue to grow as a passer. But who else will we use? Obvious option is Derrick Walton. He didn't get many chances last season, but has the obvious skillset to shine as the ball handler in the PNR. I think he can handle a lot of possessions and do so efficiently. Another option is using Kam Chatman as the ballhandler. It gets a little more awkward if he's the 4 and has the 5 man screening for him as opponents will be more apt to just straight switch the defenders on the pick, but Chatman has a pretty unique skillset with his ballhandling and passing that should let him be a 3rd talented PNR player on the floor which is really more than we had last season (he reminds me of Kyle Anderson from UCLA except a lefty).
So that's 3 guys that should all be efficient creating off the pick and roll. But who is setting the picks? Donnal is the obvious choice for most as he figures to get the most minutes at the 5. He probably won't be as talented as Jordan Morgan rolling to the rim, but what he gives up there he might more than make up with pick and pop ability as a shooter that will completely change how teams have to defend the PNR. I mean opposing coaches probably pull there hair out trying to get their rotations and angles just right on their defense against Michigan's PNR, but now that we have a big man that can either roll to the hoop or pop out for a 3 it essentially doubles the number of possible permutations as the play develops. Evan Smotrycz had some good offensive success here as the 5 man and had some big games where he tortured opposing big men, he just didn't want to play the 5 and he didn't want to play in the Big Ten. Hopefully Donnal can provide similar offensive production with better energy on D and the glass. Ricky Doyle figures to be more of a classic roll man when he is setting the picks.
But what about Zak Irvin? Our highest rated recruit last year came in and essentially was nothing but a long range gunner last season. He really excelled at it, but he rarely even attempted to make plays off the dribble. Next season you'd expect he will look to add some ball handling and dribble drive to his arsenal, though I expect him to still do most of his damage behind the arc.
So will we rank #1 again in adjusted OE on KenPom? Doubtful. It's never been done 3 years in a row. The last 2 years we've ridden a nationally elite efficient superstar (Burke and Stauskas) and we likely won't have that next year. But we do have the talent to be top 10ish or perhaps even top 5.
