1. For those who continue to hope that Iggy Brazdeikis and/or Jordan Poole will see their potential draft positions and decide to return, don't. In my strong opinion, both are going to stay in the draft, and JB is recruiting and is trying to fill their spots before the time that they theoretically have to make their respective decisions to return (May 29). He knows what's going on. Justin Pierce says he is going to decide before May 10. Lester Quinones is going to decide on May 10. JB is traveling to Germany on Monday to try to convince Franz Wagner to follow in his brother's footsteps. Luke Yaklich is going to watch Nah'shon Hyland work out on Tuesday, and we're trying to set up a quick visit. If you want any of those guys, and we definitely do (or at least the first 3, and Hyland too if he shows out at the workout) you're committing a spot to them if they're willing to commit to you, and all will decide before May 29. And that spot, or those spots, will come from Iggy and JP--most of the rest of the non-senior guys who have been in the program will be well into the spring semester (and in Camp Sanderson) by the time May 29 rolls around, and we're not "processing" guys who have made that commitment (nor, Austin Davis, who's going to be a senior, and would be forfeiting a year of eligibility and a degree from his dream school, by transferring).
2. In many respects, the reason that Iggy and JP rate to stay in (and guys like Cassius Winston and Ayo Desemnu aren't even testing) is the way our team is currently constructed vis-a-vis others. Winston and Desemnu will have the ball in their hands by design next year because that's by far the best way for their respective teams to be successful, so they can "bet on themselves" to improve and move up draft boards. If Iggy or JP or both came back, that would not be the case. Zavier Simpson was our MVP this year, and deservedly so. He was our best defender (or at east co-equal with Charles Matthews), our leader, and our only guy who could consistently set up others. He's got to play. However, you can't really play him off the ball because of his shooting limitations, so you can't run the offense with a wing dominant set, as we did for Nik Stauskas and Chris LeVert, with Derrick Walton and his 40% 3 point shooting touch posing a weapon off the catch. So JP and/or Iggy would continue to function in roles in which they are not comfortable, they don't want to do so, and it may be best for them, as another year of awkward fit might move them down, not up, the draft board. Yes, I know, neither will be ball dominant in the pros, but it's a lot easier to accept that when (a) you're getting paid, and (b) the guy who is ball dominant is much better than you on the offensive end of the floor.
3. I think the "guys leave Michigan before they should" meme is a misnomer. For the most part, guys have left Michigan under JB when they were ready to do so. Until now, only Manny Harris (who was not a JB recruit), Darius Morris and GR III left early during the Beilein era and were not first round picks, all played in multiple seasons in the NBA, and Glen, who is still in the league, actually stayed a year too long, as he was universally considered to be a first rounder after his freshman season, chose to come back, and dropped to the second round after his flaws became further exposed with an additional year. Many, here and elsewhere, were extremely critical of the decisions of THJ and D.J. Wilson--I read a lot of "good luck in Europe" comments--and now, after both turned out to be first round picks, one is $80 million richer and the other is a key rotation player for a championship contender in just his second year. Before you criticize Iggy and JP, you might want to let things play out a bit and see if/where they're drafted and whether they stick.
4. We're going to have an influx of shooters next year--both of the guys we've already signed can really shoot it, and all four mentioned above are good, and volume, 3 point shooters as well--but if Eli Brooks makes a leap (and I think he can), that would hugely elevate our ceiling. We're going to be a very good defensive team with X, Jon Teske and Isaiah Livers starting and playing big minutes, and Brooks, who is a very good defensive player, feeds into that. He's also a good secondary creator for others, and moves the ball well within our offensive flow. However, in addition to the intangibles he brings, he needs to bring tangibles, i.e., he needs to score from the perimeter and through contact near the rim, which have both been areas of struggle for him. There are those who think that David DeJulius is the guy to do those things alongside of X, and maybe he can, but to me, our ceiling comes if DDJ learns and plays mostly as a back-up PG, while Eli, who is bigger, more athletic and right now, a better passer and defender, can make the jump.
5. If Eli doesn't progress to the hoped for level, I think we're going to play the best 2 wings we've got out there alongside of X. Teske and Livers, regardless of whether they fit neatly into the who's the 2/3/4 nomenclature. JB has played guys like Novak, GR III and Irvin at the 4, and in Irvin's case, he switched him around between 4, the 3 and even sometime the 2 to fit what the team needed. None of these were conventional. Pierce, for example, might not be a conventional 2, but if we get him and he, along with, say, wither Johns or Wilson turn out to be the most ready to play right away, that's who we'll play--while we might struggle some defensively, it's not as if Iggy and Jordan were an all-league defenders, and guys like X, Teske and Livers make up for a lot on that end. Similarly, if the two guys most ready to play would be Bajema and Nunez or Quinones (if we get him), I think they'd both start even though they're both slotted to be 2s. FWIW, I think the first of these 2 scenarios is far, far more likely than the second for a lot of reasons.
6. I don't know what the final recruiting result will be. I think we are unlikely to get Quinones, based on who we're competing with; hopefully, I'll be pleasantly surprised, as he can really play, and is just what we need. I think we can likely get Hyland if we want him and move quickly enough, but kids who blow up in the spring get heavy attention, and if we slow play him, we're going to dissipate any advantage we may have. We have a great shot at Pierce, who would walk into an ideal situation with us (top level program after 3 years of no post-season, playing time readily available, and in his comfort zone of being an off ball player and a secondary creator, great grad school for a kid who graduated from a great undergraduate school in William and Mary in just 3 years); that said, don't count out Northwestern, where both his parents were varsity athletes and is 45 minutes from where they live, Notre Dame, which is treated as a Chicago area school by local media, or UNC, with its tradition and playing time seemingly there for him. Franz--as Jim said, it comes down to whether he wants to leave Germany. We almost surely will not wind up with both Quinones and Hyland--other than that, it's anybody's guess. I'll be happy with any 1 or 2 from amongst that group.
2. In many respects, the reason that Iggy and JP rate to stay in (and guys like Cassius Winston and Ayo Desemnu aren't even testing) is the way our team is currently constructed vis-a-vis others. Winston and Desemnu will have the ball in their hands by design next year because that's by far the best way for their respective teams to be successful, so they can "bet on themselves" to improve and move up draft boards. If Iggy or JP or both came back, that would not be the case. Zavier Simpson was our MVP this year, and deservedly so. He was our best defender (or at east co-equal with Charles Matthews), our leader, and our only guy who could consistently set up others. He's got to play. However, you can't really play him off the ball because of his shooting limitations, so you can't run the offense with a wing dominant set, as we did for Nik Stauskas and Chris LeVert, with Derrick Walton and his 40% 3 point shooting touch posing a weapon off the catch. So JP and/or Iggy would continue to function in roles in which they are not comfortable, they don't want to do so, and it may be best for them, as another year of awkward fit might move them down, not up, the draft board. Yes, I know, neither will be ball dominant in the pros, but it's a lot easier to accept that when (a) you're getting paid, and (b) the guy who is ball dominant is much better than you on the offensive end of the floor.
3. I think the "guys leave Michigan before they should" meme is a misnomer. For the most part, guys have left Michigan under JB when they were ready to do so. Until now, only Manny Harris (who was not a JB recruit), Darius Morris and GR III left early during the Beilein era and were not first round picks, all played in multiple seasons in the NBA, and Glen, who is still in the league, actually stayed a year too long, as he was universally considered to be a first rounder after his freshman season, chose to come back, and dropped to the second round after his flaws became further exposed with an additional year. Many, here and elsewhere, were extremely critical of the decisions of THJ and D.J. Wilson--I read a lot of "good luck in Europe" comments--and now, after both turned out to be first round picks, one is $80 million richer and the other is a key rotation player for a championship contender in just his second year. Before you criticize Iggy and JP, you might want to let things play out a bit and see if/where they're drafted and whether they stick.
4. We're going to have an influx of shooters next year--both of the guys we've already signed can really shoot it, and all four mentioned above are good, and volume, 3 point shooters as well--but if Eli Brooks makes a leap (and I think he can), that would hugely elevate our ceiling. We're going to be a very good defensive team with X, Jon Teske and Isaiah Livers starting and playing big minutes, and Brooks, who is a very good defensive player, feeds into that. He's also a good secondary creator for others, and moves the ball well within our offensive flow. However, in addition to the intangibles he brings, he needs to bring tangibles, i.e., he needs to score from the perimeter and through contact near the rim, which have both been areas of struggle for him. There are those who think that David DeJulius is the guy to do those things alongside of X, and maybe he can, but to me, our ceiling comes if DDJ learns and plays mostly as a back-up PG, while Eli, who is bigger, more athletic and right now, a better passer and defender, can make the jump.
5. If Eli doesn't progress to the hoped for level, I think we're going to play the best 2 wings we've got out there alongside of X. Teske and Livers, regardless of whether they fit neatly into the who's the 2/3/4 nomenclature. JB has played guys like Novak, GR III and Irvin at the 4, and in Irvin's case, he switched him around between 4, the 3 and even sometime the 2 to fit what the team needed. None of these were conventional. Pierce, for example, might not be a conventional 2, but if we get him and he, along with, say, wither Johns or Wilson turn out to be the most ready to play right away, that's who we'll play--while we might struggle some defensively, it's not as if Iggy and Jordan were an all-league defenders, and guys like X, Teske and Livers make up for a lot on that end. Similarly, if the two guys most ready to play would be Bajema and Nunez or Quinones (if we get him), I think they'd both start even though they're both slotted to be 2s. FWIW, I think the first of these 2 scenarios is far, far more likely than the second for a lot of reasons.
6. I don't know what the final recruiting result will be. I think we are unlikely to get Quinones, based on who we're competing with; hopefully, I'll be pleasantly surprised, as he can really play, and is just what we need. I think we can likely get Hyland if we want him and move quickly enough, but kids who blow up in the spring get heavy attention, and if we slow play him, we're going to dissipate any advantage we may have. We have a great shot at Pierce, who would walk into an ideal situation with us (top level program after 3 years of no post-season, playing time readily available, and in his comfort zone of being an off ball player and a secondary creator, great grad school for a kid who graduated from a great undergraduate school in William and Mary in just 3 years); that said, don't count out Northwestern, where both his parents were varsity athletes and is 45 minutes from where they live, Notre Dame, which is treated as a Chicago area school by local media, or UNC, with its tradition and playing time seemingly there for him. Franz--as Jim said, it comes down to whether he wants to leave Germany. We almost surely will not wind up with both Quinones and Hyland--other than that, it's anybody's guess. I'll be happy with any 1 or 2 from amongst that group.
