In re Isaiah Livers and his injury, as Mel Brooks once said, "Hope for the best, expect the worst." If this is it for Isaiah's playing days at Michigan, he has been a terrific player and an even better kid and leader. It is kids like Isaiah Livers who make you proud to root for Michigan. He's going to be a success moving forward in life; hopefully, part of that success includes fulfilling his dreams in basketball, but either way, he has a very bright future.
Moving forward, if Isaiah isn't available (if he is, to continue the movie quoting theme, "Strike this, reverse, it"), it's a blow to be sure, but it's not necessarily fatal. I don't know of any teams with two upperclassmen who were top 60 recruits who come off the bench and can play the same position as the lost starter. Neither is Isaiah--Chaundee Brown doesn't handle the ball or pass as well, and is more inconsistent shooting the ball, and Brandon Johns isn't as good defensively, and is much more inconsistent game to game and even shift to shift. However, both have the ability to play at a very high level against quality opponents. Chaundee has shown this on numerous occasions this season, including, but not limited to, against OSU a few weeks ago and Maryland yesterday, and Brandon torched a good Rutgers team last year at MSG. They're going to need to play at that level on a consistent basis, and they're going to need to shoot it well enough to keep the floor spaced like it has been with Isaiah. The key is though that both are good shooters--Brandon is just under 40% from 3 over the last 2 seasons on 68 attempts, and Chaundee is just under 40% from 3 this year on 97 attempts. Put another way, the offensive design isn't going to change much when either is in the game. Whether execution stays at a high level is the issue.
Heretofore, Chaundee has played as a guard (really a 1 guard front on offense with him defending at the guard position) whenever Mike Smith or Eli Brooks has needed a rest. If he's forced to play huge minutes at forward and thus can't give many/any minutes at the 2, we're either going to see iron man minutes from our guards or more of Zeb Jackson. Brandon has been our "small ball 5"--if he's picking up most of Isaiah's minutes at the 4, and thus can't give us many/any minutes at the 5, you're likely to see us either riding the Hunter Dickinson/Austin Davis tandem at the 5, regardless of opponent, or utilizing Terrance Williams as a small ball 5 where necessary. If the staff asked me (which it won't, and for good reason), I'd use Terrance as a small ball 5, starting today against a team which is tailor made for defending that way; he plays hard, doesn't make many mistakes, and his lack of shooting this year is far less a spacing issue when he's at the 5 rather than when he's at the 3 or 4. This keeps the rotation as unaffected as possible--Chaundee does what he does, just doing it for substantially more minutes, and Brandon simply becomes a 4 and replaces Isaiah during the minutes he plays. In Brandon's case, he gets to focus on a single position, and he gets to play through mistakes at that position knowing he's not going to be yanked.
To me, the principal effect is going to be a ripple one--what happens if we hit a bump in the road. Another injury would be catastrophic, so I won't even go there. I'm talking instead about foul trouble, a match-up issue, or just an off game by someone which necessitates a change. We get scrambled if any of our remaining starters get in foul trouble, as we have less options which do not include throwing talented but unproven guys like Zeb into the fire. We need Hunter to start playing consistently well again, as we have one less proven scorer, and he's going to have to do it against teams which are more likely to double him because the Isaiah threat on a kick-out isn't there. We need Franz to be aggressive Franz, albeit not so aggressive that he picks up cheap fouls Franz. We need Eli and Mike to be, well, Eli and Mike. Most importantly though, we need Chaundee AND Brandon to each play at the level they're capable of playing and to do so consistently. The talent is there for each of them. Both are experienced. Both play hard and are great kids. It's time. If it happens, we're very, very dangerous, Isaiah or not. If it doesn't, we're going to need some breaks in the draw.
Until now, I've been concerned about playing teams which can guard Hunter straight up, maybe because of Illinois whiplash and the fact that Hunter has struggled a bit lately. There aren't many Kofi Cockburns out there though, and now, I think I want that team, as I'd rather put more pressure on Hunter's shoulders than on those of the guys stepping up. I have been concerned about stretch 5 teams all year, and it gets a bit more pronounced if Brandon isn't going to be able to go there. I also have concerns about stretch 4s who can drive the ball--Isaiah was very good at defending those guys, and Brandon, in particular, can struggle defensively on the perimeter against guys who can put the ball on the deck and go. Put another way, teams which do not shoot 3s from the front line will make me happier than teams which do. And teams which have to cheat against us defensively may be less suspect than previously.
I remain optimistic, though obviously concerned. Whatever happens, we have had a great season, but I do not want it to see it end early (and I'm not talking about today, which matters very little, rival or no). Go Blue!
Moving forward, if Isaiah isn't available (if he is, to continue the movie quoting theme, "Strike this, reverse, it"), it's a blow to be sure, but it's not necessarily fatal. I don't know of any teams with two upperclassmen who were top 60 recruits who come off the bench and can play the same position as the lost starter. Neither is Isaiah--Chaundee Brown doesn't handle the ball or pass as well, and is more inconsistent shooting the ball, and Brandon Johns isn't as good defensively, and is much more inconsistent game to game and even shift to shift. However, both have the ability to play at a very high level against quality opponents. Chaundee has shown this on numerous occasions this season, including, but not limited to, against OSU a few weeks ago and Maryland yesterday, and Brandon torched a good Rutgers team last year at MSG. They're going to need to play at that level on a consistent basis, and they're going to need to shoot it well enough to keep the floor spaced like it has been with Isaiah. The key is though that both are good shooters--Brandon is just under 40% from 3 over the last 2 seasons on 68 attempts, and Chaundee is just under 40% from 3 this year on 97 attempts. Put another way, the offensive design isn't going to change much when either is in the game. Whether execution stays at a high level is the issue.
Heretofore, Chaundee has played as a guard (really a 1 guard front on offense with him defending at the guard position) whenever Mike Smith or Eli Brooks has needed a rest. If he's forced to play huge minutes at forward and thus can't give many/any minutes at the 2, we're either going to see iron man minutes from our guards or more of Zeb Jackson. Brandon has been our "small ball 5"--if he's picking up most of Isaiah's minutes at the 4, and thus can't give us many/any minutes at the 5, you're likely to see us either riding the Hunter Dickinson/Austin Davis tandem at the 5, regardless of opponent, or utilizing Terrance Williams as a small ball 5 where necessary. If the staff asked me (which it won't, and for good reason), I'd use Terrance as a small ball 5, starting today against a team which is tailor made for defending that way; he plays hard, doesn't make many mistakes, and his lack of shooting this year is far less a spacing issue when he's at the 5 rather than when he's at the 3 or 4. This keeps the rotation as unaffected as possible--Chaundee does what he does, just doing it for substantially more minutes, and Brandon simply becomes a 4 and replaces Isaiah during the minutes he plays. In Brandon's case, he gets to focus on a single position, and he gets to play through mistakes at that position knowing he's not going to be yanked.
To me, the principal effect is going to be a ripple one--what happens if we hit a bump in the road. Another injury would be catastrophic, so I won't even go there. I'm talking instead about foul trouble, a match-up issue, or just an off game by someone which necessitates a change. We get scrambled if any of our remaining starters get in foul trouble, as we have less options which do not include throwing talented but unproven guys like Zeb into the fire. We need Hunter to start playing consistently well again, as we have one less proven scorer, and he's going to have to do it against teams which are more likely to double him because the Isaiah threat on a kick-out isn't there. We need Franz to be aggressive Franz, albeit not so aggressive that he picks up cheap fouls Franz. We need Eli and Mike to be, well, Eli and Mike. Most importantly though, we need Chaundee AND Brandon to each play at the level they're capable of playing and to do so consistently. The talent is there for each of them. Both are experienced. Both play hard and are great kids. It's time. If it happens, we're very, very dangerous, Isaiah or not. If it doesn't, we're going to need some breaks in the draw.
Until now, I've been concerned about playing teams which can guard Hunter straight up, maybe because of Illinois whiplash and the fact that Hunter has struggled a bit lately. There aren't many Kofi Cockburns out there though, and now, I think I want that team, as I'd rather put more pressure on Hunter's shoulders than on those of the guys stepping up. I have been concerned about stretch 5 teams all year, and it gets a bit more pronounced if Brandon isn't going to be able to go there. I also have concerns about stretch 4s who can drive the ball--Isaiah was very good at defending those guys, and Brandon, in particular, can struggle defensively on the perimeter against guys who can put the ball on the deck and go. Put another way, teams which do not shoot 3s from the front line will make me happier than teams which do. And teams which have to cheat against us defensively may be less suspect than previously.
I remain optimistic, though obviously concerned. Whatever happens, we have had a great season, but I do not want it to see it end early (and I'm not talking about today, which matters very little, rival or no). Go Blue!
