In the wake of D.J. Wilson's departure, there has been a lot of focus placed on areas we will struggle as a result of not having him, namely, on the defensive end and on the glass. And certainly, we will be hurt in those areas. However, it's a truism of college basketball in the modern, AAU training, early departure era that every team has flaws, including those who do quite well and even win championships. South Carolina made the Final Four this year with a team that couldn't shoot--the Gamecocks were 304th nationally (!) in effective field goal percentage. Notre Dame made the Elite Eight in 2016 while "boasting" the 158th ranked defense in the country. Purdue won the Big Ten last year with mediocre guard play and limited athleticism and quickness. Indeed, our 2014 team, which won the Big Ten by three games, reached the Elite Eight, and was an Aaron Harrison last second shot away from possibly/likely winning it all, ranked 88th on the defensive end and 234th in two point field goal percentage defense. College basketball is NOT college football, where teams have both talent AND experience because of the rule that everyone has to stay for at least three years. In college basketball, a star who can play at an all-conference level, a quality second guy with at least fringe pro potential, quality role players, and a lot of experience can make a team a player on the national stage (as, of course, can transcendent younger talent).
I think we have that next year, or at least can have that if a few, not unrealistic things come to pass. Mo Wagner can be a star if he (a) can stay on the court and avoid silly fouls (less than 24 minutes per game on the court won't cut it this year), and (b) can cut down on his tendency to play up or down depending on how he starts the game and whether his first few shots go in. These are maturity issues, and I think they will recede this year. Charles Matthews is the best athlete we have had since Glen Robinson III, and he can be a quality second guy--one with a terrific motor and excellent defensive ability to boot--if he's even a decent threat from the perimeter, not Nik Stauskas, but not Darius Morris either. John Beilein has made decent shooters out of a lot of guys who came to Michigan with broken shots (see, in particular, Manny Harris, who came to Michigan with truly ugly shot form, and MAAR who was NOT even a decent perimeter shooter at the high school level). If Matthews can make open jumpers, that will open up the court for himself as a driver, his teammates off penetration with the floor spaced, and his coaching staff, who can play him in lineups alongside guys like Xavier Simpson and/or our sophomore 5s (Davis and Teske) without a concern that we'll have too few shooters to run the offense. I think that with a year off to work on his game and shooting form, that too, will come to pass--I watched Matthews play in high school, and he was a better shooter than guys like Manny and MAAR at that stage of their respective careers.
Our role players are solid and have a ton of experience. Based upon the experiences of past guys who had similar mid-major careers and made the fifth year jump to power conference teams, Jaaron Simmons should play at what you could call the Derrick Walton as a junior level or slightly beyond--not all conference, but upper half of the conference level at his position. If Beilein is right that he could be a "special player," our ceiling elevates dramatically. MAAR and Robinson have been quality role players for two years (in MAAR's case, two plus). It's rare in today's college basketball that you find teams with three seniors who will likely score 1,000+ points in their careers (Simmons is already beyond that, and barring injuries, the others should get there), and even rarer that those guys will be the third, fourth and fifth options on your team.
All of this assumes little, if anything, from our underclassmen beyond strictly depth, and no roster additions. That's an unrealistically conservative assumption, especially given that I really like our freshmen (in particular, Jordan Poole), and that Beilein has had a number of guys make prodigious leaps from freshman to sophomore year. If one or more of Simpson, Watson, Teske, Davis, Poole, Livers and Brooks breaks out, or if an addition is made at the 4 spot...
While D.J. would have helped, he made his decision, and I wish him the best, both in the draft and in his future pro career. We'll be fine. I think this is a top 25 team with the potential to be better than that, and maybe really, really good. I'm an optimist and a Beilein guy--call me a sunshine blower if you will--but I do not think this is unrealistic at all.
Go Blue.
I think we have that next year, or at least can have that if a few, not unrealistic things come to pass. Mo Wagner can be a star if he (a) can stay on the court and avoid silly fouls (less than 24 minutes per game on the court won't cut it this year), and (b) can cut down on his tendency to play up or down depending on how he starts the game and whether his first few shots go in. These are maturity issues, and I think they will recede this year. Charles Matthews is the best athlete we have had since Glen Robinson III, and he can be a quality second guy--one with a terrific motor and excellent defensive ability to boot--if he's even a decent threat from the perimeter, not Nik Stauskas, but not Darius Morris either. John Beilein has made decent shooters out of a lot of guys who came to Michigan with broken shots (see, in particular, Manny Harris, who came to Michigan with truly ugly shot form, and MAAR who was NOT even a decent perimeter shooter at the high school level). If Matthews can make open jumpers, that will open up the court for himself as a driver, his teammates off penetration with the floor spaced, and his coaching staff, who can play him in lineups alongside guys like Xavier Simpson and/or our sophomore 5s (Davis and Teske) without a concern that we'll have too few shooters to run the offense. I think that with a year off to work on his game and shooting form, that too, will come to pass--I watched Matthews play in high school, and he was a better shooter than guys like Manny and MAAR at that stage of their respective careers.
Our role players are solid and have a ton of experience. Based upon the experiences of past guys who had similar mid-major careers and made the fifth year jump to power conference teams, Jaaron Simmons should play at what you could call the Derrick Walton as a junior level or slightly beyond--not all conference, but upper half of the conference level at his position. If Beilein is right that he could be a "special player," our ceiling elevates dramatically. MAAR and Robinson have been quality role players for two years (in MAAR's case, two plus). It's rare in today's college basketball that you find teams with three seniors who will likely score 1,000+ points in their careers (Simmons is already beyond that, and barring injuries, the others should get there), and even rarer that those guys will be the third, fourth and fifth options on your team.
All of this assumes little, if anything, from our underclassmen beyond strictly depth, and no roster additions. That's an unrealistically conservative assumption, especially given that I really like our freshmen (in particular, Jordan Poole), and that Beilein has had a number of guys make prodigious leaps from freshman to sophomore year. If one or more of Simpson, Watson, Teske, Davis, Poole, Livers and Brooks breaks out, or if an addition is made at the 4 spot...
While D.J. would have helped, he made his decision, and I wish him the best, both in the draft and in his future pro career. We'll be fine. I think this is a top 25 team with the potential to be better than that, and maybe really, really good. I'm an optimist and a Beilein guy--call me a sunshine blower if you will--but I do not think this is unrealistic at all.
Go Blue.
