Jan 27th 2011, we're 11-9 (1-6 in the B10) and about to go 11-10 and 1-7, then BOOM, we find a way to beat MSU at the Breslin Center. If we get blown out that day, who knows where the season goes, and who knows if John Beilein survives the year.
Since this date, 5 banners in 7 years (Two regular season B10, two BTT banners and a Final Four)
- One basket away from a final four in 2014
- One JMO layup a way from a regular season B10 title in 2013
- One DJ Wilson block out or Walton jumper away from playing in the Elite 8 last year
- An NCAA not suspending Mitch for a year for weed, Levert/Walton missing half seasons in two years away from 2015 being a big year - same for 2016 minus Mitch - throw in Spike playing on one hip in 2015, and not playing in 2016 at all
First rounders - Burke, THJ, Wilson, Mitch, Stauskas and Levert
Total full healthy years from those guys = 11
Walton & GR3 playing in the league
Wagner sure to follow with potential for others on current roster
It amazes me that Beilein has evolved so much over the years
- Coming in a live by 3, die by 3, playing the 1-3-1
- He's remade his staff 3 times
- He's embraced the importance of playing defense at a different level the last two years
- He was burned the one year with Battle, Bridges, Langford fiasco
- Seems like all the best teams have a guy that Beilein identified very early, but we missed out (Kennard, Leaf, Brunson, Bluiett, Vince Edwards)
- The 2015 class had Doyle, Chatman, DJ Wilson, Rahkman - hit huge on Wilson and Rahk. Dawkins was a hit but then left so incomplete on him
A shame Dawkins left, he was a super athlete, who shot 40-45 percent from 3 - who knows what he could have done with this new approach to defense. Chatman is having a nice year with Detroit Mercy as a junior.
Many thought poorly of that class due to low rankings - 4 of those guys ended up being better than their ranking - Doyle probably worse although had many health issues
2015 was also the potential senior year for Mitch, GR3, Stauskas, Levert and Spike - first 4 never made it that far, and Spike finished his final Michigan year injured
Honestly think the miss on Doyle set the program back a year - with Mitch being injured then sent off the the NBA with a threatened one year NCAA suspension, we went from JMO/Mitch to Doyle Donnal and Bielfeldt for the 2015 season - Doyle played almost half the minutes - he had no range and was supposed to be what Teske is now - he was awful
Imagine those centers playing on this team? Austin Davis should have been our center in 2015
We're now in a golden age for Michigan Basketball - banners are going up in the rafters on a yearly basis, we're beating rivals on a regular basis, our players are going to the NBA on a high level, and we're recruiting very well. This while Beilein continues to truly coach up the full roster, is embracing a top 5-10 defense approach and finding gems that everyone then wants in recruiting. Always seems like guys star ratings improve from the day of commitment to enrollment.
I think many around here would agree that we should just cross off the top 20ish recruits every year - not even considering the FBI thing, it's not really worth bringing in a guy for a single season. The sweet spot 35-125ish is where we need to be. A full roster of guys who are going to be 2-4 year players.
Perfect example of this is the 5 spot - Wagner is finally playing an overall 1st rounder game, and he's a junior - Teske is finally blossoming late in soph year. Davis flashing late as a RS freshman, Castleton probably takes a redshirt or has a Davis like small sample year.
The likes of Livers and Matthews will in a sense protect Johns and Iggy from blowing up too quickly. Rahk saved Poole from blowing up as a freshman. Earned us more time/maybe another year for some guys on the roster.
Winning a national title comes with luck unless you're stacked with NBA lottery picks and can't be stopped - there is not this team this year, so I'll go as far as saying, this team will be in the final four.
Unless we get crazy foul trouble again or someone gets hurt, I don't see many teams that can beat us - the score wasn't always a blowout, but I felt like we were in total control of Michigan State and Purdue almost the entire game. Not score wise, but feel and eye test wise.
Simply put, we get better, more efficient looks at the basket, and force the opposite.
We told Purdue, Haas can score 25, but we're not letting you get good looks from 3, then we're going to bring Teske off the bench to and shut down both the inside and outside game with a strong defender who went one on one.
We told MSU, you're not getting the 3, take a few highlight dunks, go post up, take long 2 point jumpers
Simpson creates madness on defense - when was the last time a team looked good on offense against us? Probably Purdue 6 weeks ago on the road and before that North Carolina, but other than that?
And we can win with "poor" 3 point shooting - not ideal, but we shoot enough where going 7 for 24 is OK, because we're not turning the ball over, and have a lot of success on 2 point baskets - it's almost like going 7 for 14 with 14 turnovers or 7 for 21 with 7 turnovers - in the end, you get the same total points on the same possessions - other teams go for 7 for 21 and turn the ball over 14 times. 3 point shot volume, limit turnovers and make the 2's you take at a high rate by spacing and ball movement.
I used to get very worried when the 3's weren't going down, because we were not good at much else.
As I said above, injuries and terrible foul trouble could screw things up for us, the obvious 3rd thing is free throw shooting. Purdue turned 18 points into 7 by fouling us late.
We were lucky to be one away from the double bonus when they started fouling on purpose - there were very little first half fouling, so the excess fouling didn't actually get any of their guys in foul trouble, so they were in a perfect spot to start doing it.
Matthews has hit 17 of his last 25 - not great, but better
Simpson 19 of 32 (was on uptick until going 1 for 5 today)
Luckily we have Rahk and Duncan who we don't mind - the issue becomes once the ball is in, if they foul isn't called for right away or the ref doesn't blow the whistle, we're then throwing the ball around, trying to avoid Simpson and Matthews, and playing 3 on 5. I get you want your ball handler out there in Simpson - if you must, fine, but maybe sub Poole in for Wagner, and stick Matthews all the way on other side of the court, and let Simpson inbound - that way you have Rahk, Duncan and Poole playing keep away.
Nice to have a full week now before Selection Sunday to enjoy college basketball and root against some 2/3 seeds and be 100 percent locked into the bracket. Then 4-5 days to enjoy the anticipation for round 1 in a game where you're very confident in winning, not fretting some 8/9 matchup with a #1 seed looming.
Think the rest is great. We likely have a 13, 14 or 15 seed to open things up - can work off the rust a bit - and again, poor shooting with rust doesn't sink us anymore. Sharpen up the defense, fine-tune the offense and continue to work on fundamentals.
Go blue
Since this date, 5 banners in 7 years (Two regular season B10, two BTT banners and a Final Four)
- One basket away from a final four in 2014
- One JMO layup a way from a regular season B10 title in 2013
- One DJ Wilson block out or Walton jumper away from playing in the Elite 8 last year
- An NCAA not suspending Mitch for a year for weed, Levert/Walton missing half seasons in two years away from 2015 being a big year - same for 2016 minus Mitch - throw in Spike playing on one hip in 2015, and not playing in 2016 at all
First rounders - Burke, THJ, Wilson, Mitch, Stauskas and Levert
Total full healthy years from those guys = 11
Walton & GR3 playing in the league
Wagner sure to follow with potential for others on current roster
It amazes me that Beilein has evolved so much over the years
- Coming in a live by 3, die by 3, playing the 1-3-1
- He's remade his staff 3 times
- He's embraced the importance of playing defense at a different level the last two years
- He was burned the one year with Battle, Bridges, Langford fiasco
- Seems like all the best teams have a guy that Beilein identified very early, but we missed out (Kennard, Leaf, Brunson, Bluiett, Vince Edwards)
- The 2015 class had Doyle, Chatman, DJ Wilson, Rahkman - hit huge on Wilson and Rahk. Dawkins was a hit but then left so incomplete on him
A shame Dawkins left, he was a super athlete, who shot 40-45 percent from 3 - who knows what he could have done with this new approach to defense. Chatman is having a nice year with Detroit Mercy as a junior.
Many thought poorly of that class due to low rankings - 4 of those guys ended up being better than their ranking - Doyle probably worse although had many health issues
2015 was also the potential senior year for Mitch, GR3, Stauskas, Levert and Spike - first 4 never made it that far, and Spike finished his final Michigan year injured
Honestly think the miss on Doyle set the program back a year - with Mitch being injured then sent off the the NBA with a threatened one year NCAA suspension, we went from JMO/Mitch to Doyle Donnal and Bielfeldt for the 2015 season - Doyle played almost half the minutes - he had no range and was supposed to be what Teske is now - he was awful
Imagine those centers playing on this team? Austin Davis should have been our center in 2015
We're now in a golden age for Michigan Basketball - banners are going up in the rafters on a yearly basis, we're beating rivals on a regular basis, our players are going to the NBA on a high level, and we're recruiting very well. This while Beilein continues to truly coach up the full roster, is embracing a top 5-10 defense approach and finding gems that everyone then wants in recruiting. Always seems like guys star ratings improve from the day of commitment to enrollment.
I think many around here would agree that we should just cross off the top 20ish recruits every year - not even considering the FBI thing, it's not really worth bringing in a guy for a single season. The sweet spot 35-125ish is where we need to be. A full roster of guys who are going to be 2-4 year players.
Perfect example of this is the 5 spot - Wagner is finally playing an overall 1st rounder game, and he's a junior - Teske is finally blossoming late in soph year. Davis flashing late as a RS freshman, Castleton probably takes a redshirt or has a Davis like small sample year.
The likes of Livers and Matthews will in a sense protect Johns and Iggy from blowing up too quickly. Rahk saved Poole from blowing up as a freshman. Earned us more time/maybe another year for some guys on the roster.
Winning a national title comes with luck unless you're stacked with NBA lottery picks and can't be stopped - there is not this team this year, so I'll go as far as saying, this team will be in the final four.
Unless we get crazy foul trouble again or someone gets hurt, I don't see many teams that can beat us - the score wasn't always a blowout, but I felt like we were in total control of Michigan State and Purdue almost the entire game. Not score wise, but feel and eye test wise.
Simply put, we get better, more efficient looks at the basket, and force the opposite.
We told Purdue, Haas can score 25, but we're not letting you get good looks from 3, then we're going to bring Teske off the bench to and shut down both the inside and outside game with a strong defender who went one on one.
We told MSU, you're not getting the 3, take a few highlight dunks, go post up, take long 2 point jumpers
Simpson creates madness on defense - when was the last time a team looked good on offense against us? Probably Purdue 6 weeks ago on the road and before that North Carolina, but other than that?
And we can win with "poor" 3 point shooting - not ideal, but we shoot enough where going 7 for 24 is OK, because we're not turning the ball over, and have a lot of success on 2 point baskets - it's almost like going 7 for 14 with 14 turnovers or 7 for 21 with 7 turnovers - in the end, you get the same total points on the same possessions - other teams go for 7 for 21 and turn the ball over 14 times. 3 point shot volume, limit turnovers and make the 2's you take at a high rate by spacing and ball movement.
I used to get very worried when the 3's weren't going down, because we were not good at much else.
As I said above, injuries and terrible foul trouble could screw things up for us, the obvious 3rd thing is free throw shooting. Purdue turned 18 points into 7 by fouling us late.
We were lucky to be one away from the double bonus when they started fouling on purpose - there were very little first half fouling, so the excess fouling didn't actually get any of their guys in foul trouble, so they were in a perfect spot to start doing it.
Matthews has hit 17 of his last 25 - not great, but better
Simpson 19 of 32 (was on uptick until going 1 for 5 today)
Luckily we have Rahk and Duncan who we don't mind - the issue becomes once the ball is in, if they foul isn't called for right away or the ref doesn't blow the whistle, we're then throwing the ball around, trying to avoid Simpson and Matthews, and playing 3 on 5. I get you want your ball handler out there in Simpson - if you must, fine, but maybe sub Poole in for Wagner, and stick Matthews all the way on other side of the court, and let Simpson inbound - that way you have Rahk, Duncan and Poole playing keep away.
Nice to have a full week now before Selection Sunday to enjoy college basketball and root against some 2/3 seeds and be 100 percent locked into the bracket. Then 4-5 days to enjoy the anticipation for round 1 in a game where you're very confident in winning, not fretting some 8/9 matchup with a #1 seed looming.
Think the rest is great. We likely have a 13, 14 or 15 seed to open things up - can work off the rust a bit - and again, poor shooting with rust doesn't sink us anymore. Sharpen up the defense, fine-tune the offense and continue to work on fundamentals.
Go blue
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