I’ve been watching Michigan football regularly since the precocious age of 4 in the 1980 season. And as most of us know, 6-0 starts during the last 40 years have been pretty rare for Michigan football.
Just how rare have they been? To be exact, this is only the 7th time since 1980 that Michigan has started 6-0. The other 5 seasons it happened were:
1986
1997
1999
2006
2011
2016
Suffice to say, those were very successful seasons that included 2 conference titles, a combined 8-4 record vs MSU/OSU, 4 11+ win seasons and 6 combined trips to the Rose, Orange and Sugar Bowls (3-3 record).
Conversely, if you expand the population to Michigan teams that started off 4-0 or 5-0 but didn’t get to 6-0, you get some more mixed results. In addition to the 6 years listed above, here are all of the other Michigan teams of the last 40 years who started 4-0 or better, along with their final record for the season:
1985: 5-0 (finished 10-1-1)
1995: 5-0 (finished 9-4)
1996: 4-0 (finished 8-4)
2009: 4-0 (finished 5-7)
2010: 4-0 (finished 7-6)
2013: 5-0 (finished 7-6)
2017: 4-0 (finished 8-5)
We look back at most of these teams as Paper Tigers who started well against an easy schedule before struggling or even folding once the conference schedule and tough road games kicked in, and I think that’s why the 6-0 mark is so significant.
Usually with our schedule and quality of play in conference, by Game 6 we’ve played multiple decent-good teams and have played at least 2 games on the road in tough environments. This year appears to be no different.
I’m not saying that just because we’re 6-0 now that this guarantees we’ll end up 10-2 or 11-1 at season’s end, especially with MSU, PSU and OSU still looming. But we’ve also played enough games on the schedule to conclude that we don’t suck, we can move the ball on defenses with a pulse and we can win games in tough environments.
The teams that started fast but tailed off failed in one or more of these regards while the teams that made it to 6-0 appeared to be better set up for the tough teams and adversity that hit them later in the season.
All of those 6-0 teams still had most of their toughest tests waiting for them in the second half of the year, but all gained confidence from their starts to be in position to succeed when the schedule got tougher. It wasn’t all rainbows and unicorns (see 1999 and 2011 MSU games, 2016 Iowa game), but those teams became good enough so that one loss didn’t turn into 3 in a row.
There’s a lot more of the story left to write for 2021, but based on history, 6-0 sets up the potential for a memorable season. Let’s hope it plays out that way, only with a better ending to the OSU game than 2006 and 2016.
Just how rare have they been? To be exact, this is only the 7th time since 1980 that Michigan has started 6-0. The other 5 seasons it happened were:
1986
1997
1999
2006
2011
2016
Suffice to say, those were very successful seasons that included 2 conference titles, a combined 8-4 record vs MSU/OSU, 4 11+ win seasons and 6 combined trips to the Rose, Orange and Sugar Bowls (3-3 record).
Conversely, if you expand the population to Michigan teams that started off 4-0 or 5-0 but didn’t get to 6-0, you get some more mixed results. In addition to the 6 years listed above, here are all of the other Michigan teams of the last 40 years who started 4-0 or better, along with their final record for the season:
1985: 5-0 (finished 10-1-1)
1995: 5-0 (finished 9-4)
1996: 4-0 (finished 8-4)
2009: 4-0 (finished 5-7)
2010: 4-0 (finished 7-6)
2013: 5-0 (finished 7-6)
2017: 4-0 (finished 8-5)
We look back at most of these teams as Paper Tigers who started well against an easy schedule before struggling or even folding once the conference schedule and tough road games kicked in, and I think that’s why the 6-0 mark is so significant.
Usually with our schedule and quality of play in conference, by Game 6 we’ve played multiple decent-good teams and have played at least 2 games on the road in tough environments. This year appears to be no different.
I’m not saying that just because we’re 6-0 now that this guarantees we’ll end up 10-2 or 11-1 at season’s end, especially with MSU, PSU and OSU still looming. But we’ve also played enough games on the schedule to conclude that we don’t suck, we can move the ball on defenses with a pulse and we can win games in tough environments.
The teams that started fast but tailed off failed in one or more of these regards while the teams that made it to 6-0 appeared to be better set up for the tough teams and adversity that hit them later in the season.
All of those 6-0 teams still had most of their toughest tests waiting for them in the second half of the year, but all gained confidence from their starts to be in position to succeed when the schedule got tougher. It wasn’t all rainbows and unicorns (see 1999 and 2011 MSU games, 2016 Iowa game), but those teams became good enough so that one loss didn’t turn into 3 in a row.
There’s a lot more of the story left to write for 2021, but based on history, 6-0 sets up the potential for a memorable season. Let’s hope it plays out that way, only with a better ending to the OSU game than 2006 and 2016.
