After reading Michael Spath's article on returning starters, I had a thought and went to do some research of my own.
I found some interesting numbers regarding attrition - roster stability - and winning. I looked at recruiting classes and their four years of wins/losses. This isn't earth shattering and honestly I found what I expected to, but it may be interesting to some....
From 1993 to 2011 the Wolverines have signed 19 recruiting classes. The average attrition per class during those years was 44.3% of the original class that signed on NSD.
Michigan had six classes suffer 50% or more attrition. Those six classes combined for just 1 Big Ten title and 3 BCS Bowl appearances. Average win percentage = .643
I should note that 2 of the BCS Bowls and the B1G title came from the 2004 and 2005 classes that saw significant attrition after Lloyd Carr retired. Had he stayed on, it is likely attrition in both classes would have been lower.
The anomaly in these six classes was the 2011 group recruited by Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke with 65% attrition yet they recorded a win percentage of .714 under Brady Hoke during four seasons.
Two of the top three classes in attrition (74.1% and 70.6%) were recruited by Rich Rodriguez. Both classes were also two of lowest three win percentages during this period (.580 and .612).
Michigan classes that suffered less than 50% attrition recorded a winning percentage of .721. Just 1 class from this group failed to win more games than the average wins of the six classes with higher attrition. This was the 2001 class (.640). However, they also won 2 B1G titles and appeared in 2 BCS bowls in four seasons.
The lowest attrition of any class during this time belonged to the 1994 class with just 19% of the class failing to play out their eligibility. In their fourth year on campus this team won a B1G title and a National Championship.
12 recruiting classes suffered attrition below the average of 44.3% Only three of those classes failed to win at least one conference title. 2006, 2007 and 2009. Seven of the 12 classes won multiple league titles.
Brady Hoke signed the 2011 group, partly recruited by Rich Rodriguez. That group was devastated with 65% attrition.
And just two players remain on the current 2015 roster (Blake Countess and Desmond Morgan).
The classes signed from 2012, 2013 and 2014 have not played a full four seasons. But their average attrition is just 7.2%
With attrition decreasing with each class and just five total players leaving the program with eligibility remaining. Granted more could leave due to the coaching transition to Jim Harbaugh, however, I would argue based on previous history, that the best thing Brady Hoke did for Michigan football was to build a foundation (as Jim Harbaugh noted at his first press conference). We should know soon if there will be a mass exodus. But it appears that Harbaugh took over a stable roster that will feature 20+ seniors in the next two seasons.
Combine that stability (which according to the numbers equals wins) with the coaching resumes of this staff and we all should be excited about the future of the program. Keep your fingers crossed for low attrition!
I found some interesting numbers regarding attrition - roster stability - and winning. I looked at recruiting classes and their four years of wins/losses. This isn't earth shattering and honestly I found what I expected to, but it may be interesting to some....
From 1993 to 2011 the Wolverines have signed 19 recruiting classes. The average attrition per class during those years was 44.3% of the original class that signed on NSD.
Michigan had six classes suffer 50% or more attrition. Those six classes combined for just 1 Big Ten title and 3 BCS Bowl appearances. Average win percentage = .643
I should note that 2 of the BCS Bowls and the B1G title came from the 2004 and 2005 classes that saw significant attrition after Lloyd Carr retired. Had he stayed on, it is likely attrition in both classes would have been lower.
The anomaly in these six classes was the 2011 group recruited by Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke with 65% attrition yet they recorded a win percentage of .714 under Brady Hoke during four seasons.
Two of the top three classes in attrition (74.1% and 70.6%) were recruited by Rich Rodriguez. Both classes were also two of lowest three win percentages during this period (.580 and .612).
Michigan classes that suffered less than 50% attrition recorded a winning percentage of .721. Just 1 class from this group failed to win more games than the average wins of the six classes with higher attrition. This was the 2001 class (.640). However, they also won 2 B1G titles and appeared in 2 BCS bowls in four seasons.
The lowest attrition of any class during this time belonged to the 1994 class with just 19% of the class failing to play out their eligibility. In their fourth year on campus this team won a B1G title and a National Championship.
12 recruiting classes suffered attrition below the average of 44.3% Only three of those classes failed to win at least one conference title. 2006, 2007 and 2009. Seven of the 12 classes won multiple league titles.
Brady Hoke signed the 2011 group, partly recruited by Rich Rodriguez. That group was devastated with 65% attrition.
And just two players remain on the current 2015 roster (Blake Countess and Desmond Morgan).
The classes signed from 2012, 2013 and 2014 have not played a full four seasons. But their average attrition is just 7.2%
With attrition decreasing with each class and just five total players leaving the program with eligibility remaining. Granted more could leave due to the coaching transition to Jim Harbaugh, however, I would argue based on previous history, that the best thing Brady Hoke did for Michigan football was to build a foundation (as Jim Harbaugh noted at his first press conference). We should know soon if there will be a mass exodus. But it appears that Harbaugh took over a stable roster that will feature 20+ seniors in the next two seasons.
Combine that stability (which according to the numbers equals wins) with the coaching resumes of this staff and we all should be excited about the future of the program. Keep your fingers crossed for low attrition!
