1) CFB is as top-heavy as any time I've seen it -- ever. Even back in the days before scholarship limits -- back in the 60s and 70s -- the bluebloods were awash in talent. Baby-boomers were coming of age and most kids only played 3 sports. Point being, you had maybe six, eight, or ten top teams in the country competing.
Now we've got Alabama, Clemson, maybe Georgia, and then a couple of others rotating in to see who will play them.
In short, the gap between "pretty good" and "elite" is as wide as I've ever seen it in CFB. Harbaugh's program is now on a footing where most years we will beat most, if not all, of the "pretty good" B1G teams on our schedule.
But we are not really close to being able to compete with the elite teams. Not right now.
2) OSU is the only team in the conference with that kind of talent throughout its roster. We've got some kids who are outstanding and who will be great pros. But no one has the depth they do, and for that reason I think they're the only ones who could hope to hang in with Bama or Clemson.
Point being, we need to improve -- and (see below) make changes on offense and defense -- before we can consistently compete with (and beat) OSU.
3) Since Wisconsin I've worried that if we played Bama or Clemson the middle of our defense would get gutted. Whereas the 2016 DL (when healthy) could stone the run, Wisconsin and Indiana -- neither of them world-beaters -- showed that if teams could stay even with us they could run the ball effectively.
This defense is good. It's not great. Most of all, it misses DTs who can stop the run and bring inside pressure.
4) Most importantly, perhaps, Nick Saban realized five years ago -- at least -- that in today's stratified CFB world you can man-ball your way through most of your schedule. But to win the big games, you're gonna get in a shoot-out at some point. And no matter how many 5 star DLs you have stacked up like chord-wood on your roster, you're going to have to score points. A bunch of points.
We can't win those games. And in order to get to where we can beat an OSU team that brings its best game, that's what we need to be prepared to do.
5) If I see one more pass play where our WRs are ALL 12 yards or more downfield before they make their breaks, I'm going to get sick.
In perhaps a related note, whoever called that game should get processed this off-season. It was late in the third quarter before I saw a pass play called on first-down. [Edit: thanks to my friend @miktimrob for pointing out that I was almost right -- we "only" threw 8 times on 1st down in the 1st half. Shows how distracting yelling at Zach Gentry can be.]
6) Don Brown. Offer all the caveats. Love the guy, he knows a million times more than me, etc. etc. You have to have an identity and, to a certain extent, you have to live and die with it.
But Nick Saban is a dyed-in-the-wool "single-high" safety guy, too. But 'Bama plays quarters and rushes 4 when it needs to, also.
You need the tools in your toolbox to beat who matters most. And that means that if it takes zone to beat the mesh stuff underneath -- or personnel packages that keep your Mike from covering the wheel -- then maybe you're not as sharp against Rutgers. But you need those tools in the toolbox and the OSU game is too late to bring them out.
***
This one hurts. But to sum up, we are going to have to change to win these games. We can beat everyone in the conference playing the same style. But not the Bucks.
Now we've got Alabama, Clemson, maybe Georgia, and then a couple of others rotating in to see who will play them.
In short, the gap between "pretty good" and "elite" is as wide as I've ever seen it in CFB. Harbaugh's program is now on a footing where most years we will beat most, if not all, of the "pretty good" B1G teams on our schedule.
But we are not really close to being able to compete with the elite teams. Not right now.
2) OSU is the only team in the conference with that kind of talent throughout its roster. We've got some kids who are outstanding and who will be great pros. But no one has the depth they do, and for that reason I think they're the only ones who could hope to hang in with Bama or Clemson.
Point being, we need to improve -- and (see below) make changes on offense and defense -- before we can consistently compete with (and beat) OSU.
3) Since Wisconsin I've worried that if we played Bama or Clemson the middle of our defense would get gutted. Whereas the 2016 DL (when healthy) could stone the run, Wisconsin and Indiana -- neither of them world-beaters -- showed that if teams could stay even with us they could run the ball effectively.
This defense is good. It's not great. Most of all, it misses DTs who can stop the run and bring inside pressure.
4) Most importantly, perhaps, Nick Saban realized five years ago -- at least -- that in today's stratified CFB world you can man-ball your way through most of your schedule. But to win the big games, you're gonna get in a shoot-out at some point. And no matter how many 5 star DLs you have stacked up like chord-wood on your roster, you're going to have to score points. A bunch of points.
We can't win those games. And in order to get to where we can beat an OSU team that brings its best game, that's what we need to be prepared to do.
5) If I see one more pass play where our WRs are ALL 12 yards or more downfield before they make their breaks, I'm going to get sick.
In perhaps a related note, whoever called that game should get processed this off-season. It was late in the third quarter before I saw a pass play called on first-down. [Edit: thanks to my friend @miktimrob for pointing out that I was almost right -- we "only" threw 8 times on 1st down in the 1st half. Shows how distracting yelling at Zach Gentry can be.]
6) Don Brown. Offer all the caveats. Love the guy, he knows a million times more than me, etc. etc. You have to have an identity and, to a certain extent, you have to live and die with it.
But Nick Saban is a dyed-in-the-wool "single-high" safety guy, too. But 'Bama plays quarters and rushes 4 when it needs to, also.
You need the tools in your toolbox to beat who matters most. And that means that if it takes zone to beat the mesh stuff underneath -- or personnel packages that keep your Mike from covering the wheel -- then maybe you're not as sharp against Rutgers. But you need those tools in the toolbox and the OSU game is too late to bring them out.
***
This one hurts. But to sum up, we are going to have to change to win these games. We can beat everyone in the conference playing the same style. But not the Bucks.
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