In the final seven seasons (2001-2007) of Lloyd Carr's career:
OSU: 73-16 (.820)
UM: 64-24 (.727)
Wisconsin: 60-30 (.666)
PSU: 50-30 (.625)
MSU: 40-45 (.470)
Our head-to-head records during that time reflected these overall winning percentages fairly accurately, with the exception of our record against OSU:
MSU: 6-1 (note - two of these wins were back-to-back overtime wins in 2004 and 2005)
PSU: 5-0 (including one OT win and one win on the last play of the game)
Wisconsin: 3-2
OSU: 1-6
As we look at this timeframe, here is how UM ranks in overall wins compared to these programs: OSU (-9), Wisconsin (+4), PSU (+14), and MSU (+24).
Now let's cover the next seven seasons, from 2008-2014:
OSU: 77-16 (.827)
MSU: 68-25 (.731 - please note this is a better winning percentage than Michigan had from 2001-2007)
Wisconsin: 67-27 (.712)
PSU: 58-29 (.666)
UM: 46-42 (.522)
Head-to-head:
Wisconsin: 1-1 (fortunately, they dropped off the schedule)
PSU: 1-4
MSU: 1-6
OSU: 1-6
As we ended 2007, we were +4 in total wins against Wisconsin for the 7 year period (2001-2007), +14 over PSU, and +24 over MSU.
We ended 2014 as follows: OSU (-31 - we literally averaged four less wins per season than they did), MSU (-22), Wisconsin (-21), PSU (-12).
The reversal is just as astounding: MSU (literally a 46 game reversal - we were +24 from 2001-2007 and -22 from 2008-2014), Wisconsin (25 game reversal), and PSU (26 game reversal). Even OSU - we went from being down 9 to down 31.
From 2008-2014, MSU outscored us 197-101, or 28-14 a game. The final two (29-6 and 35-11) were particularly painful.
Now, let's look at the first five years of the Harbaugh era:
OSU: 61-7 (.897)
Wisconsin: 52-16 (.764)
PSU: 49-17 (.742)
UM: 47-18 (.723)
MSU: 39-26 (.600)
Head-to-head:
PSU: 3-2
Wisconsin: 2-2
MSU: 3-3
OSU: 0-6
In five years, the positive reversal is as follows: OSU (17), Wisconsin (16), PSU (10), and MSU (30).
In the six games against MSU, we have outscored them 154-81, or 26-13 per game.
One thing I think people should strongly consider: while our five year win total (47) is still slightly behind Wisconsin (52) and PSU (49), not only is it top 10 nationally during the Harbaugh era, but Wisconsin's winning percentage (.764) and PSU's (.742) during that time are higher than Carr's (.727) from 2001-2007.
In five years, we are 14 games behind OSU, which is disappointing, but our winning percentage from 2015-2019 (.723) is essentially the same as it was from 2001-2007 (.727). It is OSU that has improved from .820 (which is still great) to an astounding .897, even with other Big Ten teams now well above .700, like Wisconsin (.764) and PSU (.742), which as you can see above was not the case from 2001-2007.
To me, the reversal we've accomplished in five years under Harbaugh has been impressive. While MSU beat us last weekend - an extremely disappointing loss - they have gone from top 5-7 team nationally when Harbaugh took over to almost total rebuild mode in five years. Wisconsin and PSU continue to play well, so our .500 records against them should really be evaluated against how good those teams are now (again - better than Michigan from 2001-2007), not what we might have been able to do against them 13-19 years ago, especially since in the more recent past (6-12 years ago), they had their way with us.
This is your floor, when you talk about replacing Harbaugh. Sure, you could also argue 2016 was the ceiling, I don't know. But I don't know if just any coach can come in here and maintain what he's done, let alone improve upon it.
Much depends on the rest of the year. If we finish 5-3 or worse 4-4, that's a time for a long look at where things stand. (With that said, you could say the same after 1996 and 2005, and it's a good thing Lloyd was still coaching the next year). If we rally to 6-2, with Milton entering his second year as a starting QB in 2021, I'm very unlikely to want a change.
OSU: 73-16 (.820)
UM: 64-24 (.727)
Wisconsin: 60-30 (.666)
PSU: 50-30 (.625)
MSU: 40-45 (.470)
Our head-to-head records during that time reflected these overall winning percentages fairly accurately, with the exception of our record against OSU:
MSU: 6-1 (note - two of these wins were back-to-back overtime wins in 2004 and 2005)
PSU: 5-0 (including one OT win and one win on the last play of the game)
Wisconsin: 3-2
OSU: 1-6
As we look at this timeframe, here is how UM ranks in overall wins compared to these programs: OSU (-9), Wisconsin (+4), PSU (+14), and MSU (+24).
Now let's cover the next seven seasons, from 2008-2014:
OSU: 77-16 (.827)
MSU: 68-25 (.731 - please note this is a better winning percentage than Michigan had from 2001-2007)
Wisconsin: 67-27 (.712)
PSU: 58-29 (.666)
UM: 46-42 (.522)
Head-to-head:
Wisconsin: 1-1 (fortunately, they dropped off the schedule)
PSU: 1-4
MSU: 1-6
OSU: 1-6
As we ended 2007, we were +4 in total wins against Wisconsin for the 7 year period (2001-2007), +14 over PSU, and +24 over MSU.
We ended 2014 as follows: OSU (-31 - we literally averaged four less wins per season than they did), MSU (-22), Wisconsin (-21), PSU (-12).
The reversal is just as astounding: MSU (literally a 46 game reversal - we were +24 from 2001-2007 and -22 from 2008-2014), Wisconsin (25 game reversal), and PSU (26 game reversal). Even OSU - we went from being down 9 to down 31.
From 2008-2014, MSU outscored us 197-101, or 28-14 a game. The final two (29-6 and 35-11) were particularly painful.
Now, let's look at the first five years of the Harbaugh era:
OSU: 61-7 (.897)
Wisconsin: 52-16 (.764)
PSU: 49-17 (.742)
UM: 47-18 (.723)
MSU: 39-26 (.600)
Head-to-head:
PSU: 3-2
Wisconsin: 2-2
MSU: 3-3
OSU: 0-6
In five years, the positive reversal is as follows: OSU (17), Wisconsin (16), PSU (10), and MSU (30).
In the six games against MSU, we have outscored them 154-81, or 26-13 per game.
One thing I think people should strongly consider: while our five year win total (47) is still slightly behind Wisconsin (52) and PSU (49), not only is it top 10 nationally during the Harbaugh era, but Wisconsin's winning percentage (.764) and PSU's (.742) during that time are higher than Carr's (.727) from 2001-2007.
In five years, we are 14 games behind OSU, which is disappointing, but our winning percentage from 2015-2019 (.723) is essentially the same as it was from 2001-2007 (.727). It is OSU that has improved from .820 (which is still great) to an astounding .897, even with other Big Ten teams now well above .700, like Wisconsin (.764) and PSU (.742), which as you can see above was not the case from 2001-2007.
To me, the reversal we've accomplished in five years under Harbaugh has been impressive. While MSU beat us last weekend - an extremely disappointing loss - they have gone from top 5-7 team nationally when Harbaugh took over to almost total rebuild mode in five years. Wisconsin and PSU continue to play well, so our .500 records against them should really be evaluated against how good those teams are now (again - better than Michigan from 2001-2007), not what we might have been able to do against them 13-19 years ago, especially since in the more recent past (6-12 years ago), they had their way with us.
This is your floor, when you talk about replacing Harbaugh. Sure, you could also argue 2016 was the ceiling, I don't know. But I don't know if just any coach can come in here and maintain what he's done, let alone improve upon it.
Much depends on the rest of the year. If we finish 5-3 or worse 4-4, that's a time for a long look at where things stand. (With that said, you could say the same after 1996 and 2005, and it's a good thing Lloyd was still coaching the next year). If we rally to 6-2, with Milton entering his second year as a starting QB in 2021, I'm very unlikely to want a change.
