As I noted in a post about 10 days ago, Michigan was second in Big 10 wins under Harbaugh a week ago.
1. Ohio 43-4 91.4 winning percentage
2. Michigan 35-12 74.4%
3. Wisc 35-12 74.4%
4. Penn St 34-13 72.3
5. Iowa 32-16 66
6. NW 28-19 59.5
7. MSU 28-20 58.3
Then on Coach Effect I posted:
Spencer Hall on harbaugh:
"Since Harbaugh arrived in 2015, his program is the only one in all of FBS with zero upset victories. Harbaugh’s Wolverines are 0-10 as underdogs.
One article noted: "For the first time in his career at Michigan, Jim Harbaugh is an outright winner in a game oddsmakers did not expect the Wolverines to win. Harbaugh's squad dominated from start to finish in Saturday's (2021 season) pivotal Big Ten showdown at Wisconsin, crushing the Badgers, 38-17.
The Wolverines, despite a 4-0 start this fall, entered the matchup as a two-point underdog. The victory marks the program's first win as an outright underdog since 2013 and snaps Harbaugh's 11-game losing streak in such situations during his tenure."
So you have strong success in terms of sheer number of wins in the conference; that is mixed with what the media sells as great failure in big games. Let's break it down.
The Big 10 is a 5 team tier league as far as Michigan is concerned. Ohio, Michigan, MSU, Wisconsin and Penn St.
Michigan is 27-2 against all other B10 teams during the 6.5 year Harbaugh era. The two losses are Iowa in 2016, the 14-13 game. And Indiana in a Covid year. And while there have been close calls (Minnesota with Speight in 2015 and a goal line stand comes to mind. As does 20-17 vs Northwestern), they have mostly been complete ass kickings. Rutgers 78-0 and 52-0. Northwestern 38-0. Nebraska 56-10. Others 59-3; 41-8; or very comfortable double digit wins. This record is one big part of why Harbaugh was hired. Rich Rod and Hoke lost to these inferior teams routinely. Harbaugh doesn't. Complain about his run philosophy offense all you want, but he uses his talent advantage to pound inferior conference teams. So that fans leave the game with a W in their pocket and folks at home go to bed moving up the rankings. Pound inferior talent...just like Alabama does.
That leaves measuring Michigan agains its 5 team top tier: Ohio, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, and MSU. But lets take Ohio out of it for now. We already know that score.
Generally when we lose to Penn State or MSU it's close. A botched punt, a rainstorm, a dropped pass by Ronnie Bell, or a Hutchinson TD reversals seem to screw us. But when we win, we are smashing those teams. (Even Notre Dame is an example of this. They beat us 24-17 at their place in 2018, but then we smashed them 45-14 the next year in 2019 with less talent than we had in 2018). Wisconsin is the team of those three that performs best against UM.
INCLUDING COVID we are 3-3 vs. Wisconsin under Harbaugh. 3-3 vs. PSU. and 3-4 vs. MSU. UM needs to win PSU to get it to .500. Take out Covid year and we are 3-3, 3-2, 3-2 or 9-7. And remember their non-coivd records against the rest of the league during Harbaugh are generally worse than ours. With Wisconsin and UM changing 2nd place on a game by game basis:
1. Ohio 45-4
3. Michigan 36-13
2. Wisc 37-12
4. Penn St 34-15
5. Iowa 32-17
7. NW 28-21
6. MSU 29-20
So Harbaugh is 27-2 vs. the Little 9, which includes the IU loss last year. 25-1 without the Covid year and the loss was a 2016 14-13 loss to Iowa with a hurt Speight at QB.
Against PSU, MSU, Wisconsin - we are 1 game under .500 even with covid; and 9-7 without the covid year. We'll be 10-7 if we beat PSU. I think Michigan's win loss against those teams is about to trend greatly in our favor.
What I see is that UM and Harbaugh is building brick by brick. Starting with the 25-1 vs. the little 9. Trending high in win margin and close in loss margin vs. the top tier. Once we shore that up, we move on to the next bigger challenges. Michigan is winning versus that top tier by bigger margins, and losing close in losses.
I really believe that the dam is about to burst for Michigan in a good way.
1. Ohio 43-4 91.4 winning percentage
2. Michigan 35-12 74.4%
3. Wisc 35-12 74.4%
4. Penn St 34-13 72.3
5. Iowa 32-16 66
6. NW 28-19 59.5
7. MSU 28-20 58.3
Then on Coach Effect I posted:
Spencer Hall on harbaugh:
"Since Harbaugh arrived in 2015, his program is the only one in all of FBS with zero upset victories. Harbaugh’s Wolverines are 0-10 as underdogs.
One article noted: "For the first time in his career at Michigan, Jim Harbaugh is an outright winner in a game oddsmakers did not expect the Wolverines to win. Harbaugh's squad dominated from start to finish in Saturday's (2021 season) pivotal Big Ten showdown at Wisconsin, crushing the Badgers, 38-17.
The Wolverines, despite a 4-0 start this fall, entered the matchup as a two-point underdog. The victory marks the program's first win as an outright underdog since 2013 and snaps Harbaugh's 11-game losing streak in such situations during his tenure."
So you have strong success in terms of sheer number of wins in the conference; that is mixed with what the media sells as great failure in big games. Let's break it down.
The Big 10 is a 5 team tier league as far as Michigan is concerned. Ohio, Michigan, MSU, Wisconsin and Penn St.
Michigan is 27-2 against all other B10 teams during the 6.5 year Harbaugh era. The two losses are Iowa in 2016, the 14-13 game. And Indiana in a Covid year. And while there have been close calls (Minnesota with Speight in 2015 and a goal line stand comes to mind. As does 20-17 vs Northwestern), they have mostly been complete ass kickings. Rutgers 78-0 and 52-0. Northwestern 38-0. Nebraska 56-10. Others 59-3; 41-8; or very comfortable double digit wins. This record is one big part of why Harbaugh was hired. Rich Rod and Hoke lost to these inferior teams routinely. Harbaugh doesn't. Complain about his run philosophy offense all you want, but he uses his talent advantage to pound inferior conference teams. So that fans leave the game with a W in their pocket and folks at home go to bed moving up the rankings. Pound inferior talent...just like Alabama does.
That leaves measuring Michigan agains its 5 team top tier: Ohio, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, and MSU. But lets take Ohio out of it for now. We already know that score.
Generally when we lose to Penn State or MSU it's close. A botched punt, a rainstorm, a dropped pass by Ronnie Bell, or a Hutchinson TD reversals seem to screw us. But when we win, we are smashing those teams. (Even Notre Dame is an example of this. They beat us 24-17 at their place in 2018, but then we smashed them 45-14 the next year in 2019 with less talent than we had in 2018). Wisconsin is the team of those three that performs best against UM.
INCLUDING COVID we are 3-3 vs. Wisconsin under Harbaugh. 3-3 vs. PSU. and 3-4 vs. MSU. UM needs to win PSU to get it to .500. Take out Covid year and we are 3-3, 3-2, 3-2 or 9-7. And remember their non-coivd records against the rest of the league during Harbaugh are generally worse than ours. With Wisconsin and UM changing 2nd place on a game by game basis:
1. Ohio 45-4
3. Michigan 36-13
2. Wisc 37-12
4. Penn St 34-15
5. Iowa 32-17
7. NW 28-21
6. MSU 29-20
So Harbaugh is 27-2 vs. the Little 9, which includes the IU loss last year. 25-1 without the Covid year and the loss was a 2016 14-13 loss to Iowa with a hurt Speight at QB.
Against PSU, MSU, Wisconsin - we are 1 game under .500 even with covid; and 9-7 without the covid year. We'll be 10-7 if we beat PSU. I think Michigan's win loss against those teams is about to trend greatly in our favor.
What I see is that UM and Harbaugh is building brick by brick. Starting with the 25-1 vs. the little 9. Trending high in win margin and close in loss margin vs. the top tier. Once we shore that up, we move on to the next bigger challenges. Michigan is winning versus that top tier by bigger margins, and losing close in losses.
I really believe that the dam is about to burst for Michigan in a good way.
Last edited:
