Good news!! Although we are 3-1, which is less than we had hoped for, we are looking like a very legit Top Ten team outside the occasionally stale air inside THE FORT.
Yes, I know...the games are played on the field. but this is very reliable predictor of team strength except when it is not (Hello Old Dominion which became 1-3 after beating Virginia Tech)
The Cake is Still in the Oven
It typically takes about 6 weeks for the power ratings to really settle, but after four weeks this is beginning to take shape. If we stay healthy, after the Northwestern game we will have a pretty good idea about how the next few weeks will go.
Sagarin Index: Michigan 8th (Through Week 4)
OSU-2, PSU-3, MSU-15, Wisky-9, Northwestern-58 (ND-20)
https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/
ESPN FPI: Michigan 6th (Through Week 4)
OSU-2, PSU-4, MSU-12, Wisky-14, Northwestern-53 (ND-9)
http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings
Football Outsiders S&P+: Michigan 6th (Through Week 4)
OSU-2, PSU-5, MSU-18, Wisky-12, Northwestern-66 (ND-11)
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa
Massey Peabody: Michigan 7th (Post week 3 updated on Sunday night for week 4)
OSU-3, PSU-8, MSU-17, Wisky-18, Northwestern > 35th (ND-19)
http://massey-peabody.com/college-football-2018-weekly-rankings/
What does it mean?
We should reasonably be favored in every game except OSU. The PSU game we should be favored because although they will be higher rated the Home Field Advantage is a much bigger factor than the ratings difference. Same for Wisky. MSU will get pummeled. Northwestern is evaporating.
HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE: The expected point differential swing between Happy Valley (-5 points)
and the Big House (+ 5 points) is about 10 points...10 points to our favor.
Yes, I know...the games are played on the field. but this is very reliable predictor of team strength except when it is not (Hello Old Dominion which became 1-3 after beating Virginia Tech)
The Cake is Still in the Oven
It typically takes about 6 weeks for the power ratings to really settle, but after four weeks this is beginning to take shape. If we stay healthy, after the Northwestern game we will have a pretty good idea about how the next few weeks will go.
Sagarin Index: Michigan 8th (Through Week 4)
OSU-2, PSU-3, MSU-15, Wisky-9, Northwestern-58 (ND-20)
https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/
ESPN FPI: Michigan 6th (Through Week 4)
OSU-2, PSU-4, MSU-12, Wisky-14, Northwestern-53 (ND-9)
http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings
Football Outsiders S&P+: Michigan 6th (Through Week 4)
OSU-2, PSU-5, MSU-18, Wisky-12, Northwestern-66 (ND-11)
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa
Massey Peabody: Michigan 7th (Post week 3 updated on Sunday night for week 4)
OSU-3, PSU-8, MSU-17, Wisky-18, Northwestern > 35th (ND-19)
http://massey-peabody.com/college-football-2018-weekly-rankings/
What does it mean?
We should reasonably be favored in every game except OSU. The PSU game we should be favored because although they will be higher rated the Home Field Advantage is a much bigger factor than the ratings difference. Same for Wisky. MSU will get pummeled. Northwestern is evaporating.
HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE: The expected point differential swing between Happy Valley (-5 points)
and the Big House (+ 5 points) is about 10 points...10 points to our favor.
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