MSU scored a TD to take a 16-9 lead with 1:49 left in the 3rd quarter. MSU opted to kick the extra point to go up 8 and make it 17-9. I immediately wondered whey didn't go for 2 to make it a two possession game.
Should they have gone for 2 to make it a 2-possession game? It's almost like that was a freebie: miss the conversion and you're still up 7. But convert the 2-pt try and it's a 9 point lead - a two possession game against a team with major QB issues.
Turns out that the very next possession IU scored a TD on an 11-play drive . . . but missed the 2-pt conversion that would have tied the game. Had MSU gone for 2 and made it, IU wouldn't have gone for 2, likely makes the extra point, and the score is 18-16 . . . so you're still in the same spot - a two point lead, which is interesting.
538 did an article and a chart on this a couple years ago (linked here). According to the chart, apparently there is basically no difference between going for 1 or 2 in that situation - 538 rated that decision as "same", meaning your chance of winning is the same regardless of whether you go for 1 or 2 (the chart applies to situations w/ 10 minutes left, which close to what happened here).
Anyways, I just thought that was interesting. I also thought it was interesting that the announcers didn't even raise the question, but I guess that's par for the course.
Should they have gone for 2 to make it a 2-possession game? It's almost like that was a freebie: miss the conversion and you're still up 7. But convert the 2-pt try and it's a 9 point lead - a two possession game against a team with major QB issues.
Turns out that the very next possession IU scored a TD on an 11-play drive . . . but missed the 2-pt conversion that would have tied the game. Had MSU gone for 2 and made it, IU wouldn't have gone for 2, likely makes the extra point, and the score is 18-16 . . . so you're still in the same spot - a two point lead, which is interesting.
538 did an article and a chart on this a couple years ago (linked here). According to the chart, apparently there is basically no difference between going for 1 or 2 in that situation - 538 rated that decision as "same", meaning your chance of winning is the same regardless of whether you go for 1 or 2 (the chart applies to situations w/ 10 minutes left, which close to what happened here).
Anyways, I just thought that was interesting. I also thought it was interesting that the announcers didn't even raise the question, but I guess that's par for the course.
