We can debate win percentage or who has the most wins or when teams played other teams at different times. The reality though is every season there can be a debate if two teams are tied since the Big Ten does not play a round robin format (as an example Michigan caught a break in 2012 in not playing at Wisconsin and ultimately sharing the title with OSU/MSU, yet it is highly likely Michigan finishes about a game behind those two with a full 22 game round robin schedule that year). After looking at each of the contenders this is how I would settle things if the conference race is tight in the end.
First off let's look at the current conference win percentage of the home/road opponents for each of the top three teams....
Michigan - 0.433
Illinois - 0.420
Ohio State - 0.480
Ohio State will end likely end up with the toughest schedule among the group. FWIW, if Michigan's schedule went interrupted the number above would drop to 0.388.
Thus, since schedule is arbitrary I would have no problem if the conference were to approach things as follows.....
Michigan at 16-1 wins outright (duh).
Michigan at 15-2 wins at least a share. If Illinois goes 17-3 then those two split.
Michigan at 14-3 wins at least a share if Illinois loses another game. Illinois or OSU can also share if they go 16-4.
Michigan at 13-4 wins a share provided Illinois or OSU is at 15-5. If Illinois or OSU is 16-4 then no title for Michigan.
Michigan at 12-5 .....means there are some problems come March.
Of the top four teams, Michigan plays singles with Illinois/OSU/Iowa. OSU gets doubles with Illinois/Iowa. Illinois gets a double with OSU. Thus, Michigan is getting a little bit of break there. Not to mention Michigan gets another break in having 9 home games with 8 on the road.
Since things are arbitrary I would not view Michigan on how they would fair with the games they did not reschedule, but rather if they had a balanced 20 game schedule (say road game with Iowa, home game with Indiana, road game with NW). That sort of schedule rounding to whole numbers gives me a 2-1 record. In turn if Michigan goes 14-3 and Illinois/OSU goes 15-5 then no way is that a shared title. However, if the teams are within a close percentage of one another then I don't have an issue with sharing the title. Giving Michigan an outright title at 14-3 if Illinois or OSU is at 16-4 on the merit of percentage points would be silly.
With that said, I would seed the Big Ten Tournament on percentage points.
First off let's look at the current conference win percentage of the home/road opponents for each of the top three teams....
Michigan - 0.433
Illinois - 0.420
Ohio State - 0.480
Ohio State will end likely end up with the toughest schedule among the group. FWIW, if Michigan's schedule went interrupted the number above would drop to 0.388.
Thus, since schedule is arbitrary I would have no problem if the conference were to approach things as follows.....
Michigan at 16-1 wins outright (duh).
Michigan at 15-2 wins at least a share. If Illinois goes 17-3 then those two split.
Michigan at 14-3 wins at least a share if Illinois loses another game. Illinois or OSU can also share if they go 16-4.
Michigan at 13-4 wins a share provided Illinois or OSU is at 15-5. If Illinois or OSU is 16-4 then no title for Michigan.
Michigan at 12-5 .....means there are some problems come March.
Of the top four teams, Michigan plays singles with Illinois/OSU/Iowa. OSU gets doubles with Illinois/Iowa. Illinois gets a double with OSU. Thus, Michigan is getting a little bit of break there. Not to mention Michigan gets another break in having 9 home games with 8 on the road.
Since things are arbitrary I would not view Michigan on how they would fair with the games they did not reschedule, but rather if they had a balanced 20 game schedule (say road game with Iowa, home game with Indiana, road game with NW). That sort of schedule rounding to whole numbers gives me a 2-1 record. In turn if Michigan goes 14-3 and Illinois/OSU goes 15-5 then no way is that a shared title. However, if the teams are within a close percentage of one another then I don't have an issue with sharing the title. Giving Michigan an outright title at 14-3 if Illinois or OSU is at 16-4 on the merit of percentage points would be silly.
With that said, I would seed the Big Ten Tournament on percentage points.
