The futility of predictions at the start of the football season. Always so much is not known. We all have said how ridiculous the polls are before the season starts. Yet here we are predicting the season and the first game. One of the most important variables we don't know and cannot know is how the personality of this team will manifest itself. Therefore, I am not able to get an idea for this team. It is like trying to nail jello to a tree. A worthless task with no purpose, impossible to do but tried since it is a challenge.
Seems to be three kinds of predictors. Full of drink of some kind or want the team to be great but look at variables that may be helpful in making some sort of rational forecast or just grieving because the season will go to hell with few wins. I think the last folks just do that to decrease the pain if losses do happen.
Talked with my son about the possible season and how it goes. My only take is that Michigan will improve over the season more than anyone like Ohio State last year only with a much lower floor and higher ceiling. My son's take is like the negotiator he is. What follows is his take on the season.
I am ecstatic, and think Harbaugh was the perfect and only hire that could give me hope in the near term, but I see my maize and blue brethren going overboard with predictions. Contrary to some Harbaugh-maniacs, UM will not win the B1G (or division). They will not win 11+ games. Meyer and Saban are not running scared (neither is Dantonio). Still, it is with tremendous confidence that I say this team will be much improved and will win 7 – 10 games. I have little argument between 8 or 9 win predictions and think this is largely dependent on personality. Once you get to 6 or 11 (or beyond) then I think there’s either bias or lack of knowledge/logic (or both) involved. The high variance is because of so many unknowns, and the bizarre nature of UM’s program lately. Plus, CFB is full of year-to-year variance and unexpected seasons.
Here’s why they win 9 or 10:
1.Coaching: In college it is the most influential factor. Good coaching can make low level talent good, decent talent great, and good talent elite (e.g. Bill Snyder, Mark Dantonio). Great talent competes for the NC, but to win it, you need great coaching too. UM is a couple years away from that.
a.Harbaugh: His track record everywhere he’s been is impeccable and consistent. His teams improve quickly and win a lot. His QBs get better, faster and develop as much or more than any other position. QB was Hoke’s greatest neglect (though he neglected quite a bit). He didn’t recruit QB well, and he didn’t develop it at all. JH’s QB’s will be their personal best, and his offense will be effective and efficient. At Stanford his first year he achieved a 3-game improvement (with little talent and no proven QB) and at SF it was an 8 game improvement. He changes culture, develops talent, and hires great assistants.
b.Drevno: Funk was dealt a horrible hand with 2 non-frosh schollie linemen in 2012. He actually made strides last year, but Drevno is proven to be better and can work with lines young and old. They were not the big problem last year. RBs and QBs did not help them, and they’re an easy scapegoat. The OL will be the best since 2007.
c.Baxter: UM will rugby punt, will cover out of the spread, and will block punts/kicks. Baxter led NCAA during his Fresno tenure (beating VT), and turned USC into a top-5 blocked kick team in one year. UM will go from below average on ST to top-10. You can win a lot of games by winning ST. UM has been bad at ST for years and years. Things will be different starting Sept 3rd. This will be a game-changing unit. The FG-unit will be shaky so that could be an issue, but the rest will compensate.
d.Durkin: his energy and track record should play well with a veteran and talented D. Florida was neither a fluke nor all Muschamp. Last year this was a top-40 unit. Even Hoke got this side of the ball to perform (rather, GMatt did). This year, they’ll be a top-20 unit.
e.Addition by subtraction: Hoke and Co. did not develop players, did not prepare them, and did not coach well in games. His assistants were not top-tier. The two best coaches were Nuss and GMatt. GMatt is still on this staff and took a demotion. Each unit will be coached at a high level. JH’s attention to detail and game management are strengths rather than profound weaknesses.
2.Talent: I’ve heard this team isn’t talented. I disagree. They’ve not been developed. They’ve severely under-performed. Recruiting rankings can mean nothing when looking at a specific player, but they are significant when looking at entire classes and over multi-year periods. This team has more talent and depth than any team since 2007. Attrition plagued RR and early Hoke. Hoke’s only FB virtue will come to fruition over the next couple years. He did bring in football material, and he kept it in A2. He just couldn’t do anything with it. This is not an Alabama/FSU/USC type talented group, but it is MSU/Stan/NE type. Those teams routinely win 7 – 10 games even bouncing back from down years.
3.Roster makeup: They’ll have more 4th and 5th year guys in the two deep since 2011…and they’ll be more talented than that group. A 5thyear SR QB with 25 B1G starts will be huge (we all know it’ll be him). They’ll depend on fewer 1st/2nd year guys, and if young guys play it’ll be because they beat out scholarship upper classmen, and not because there were a last resort. The OL and DL will both have two-deeps of upper class veterans who were highly recruited. Last year, the roster was good enough to win more games, but roster make up has been a problem at UM since 2008. Attrition and bad fit has been an issue nearly every year until last year, and even then it wasn’t optimal. This year is better.
Here’s why they win 7 or 8:
1.Schedule: I think they’re the only (one of the few?) P5 team with 3 P5 non-conference games, and the best of the 3 is on the road. It’s nice to have the rivals at home, but they’re both top-5 types this year so the gap may be too much to cover simply by home-field. MN is going to be the toughest road B1G game and scares me more than Utah. Happy Valley could also be a problem, but I am not as high on PSU as many. Still, UM could realistically be underdogs in 6 games.
2.Injuries: at QB, TE and/or WR could render an already questionable passing game inept. There just is a dearth of depth and experience at these positions. I actually don’t mind the starters at these positions, but beyond that…yikes. The OL is deep, the front 7 is deep and it looks like the secondary is deep. This is the first year in a long time I could list that many units.
3.Too many moving parts/unkowns: New staff, 5th year transfers playing huge roles, key young guys not being who we thought they could…it just may be too much to be highly effective so soon. “It will take some time” is a prudent statement, but it could have been said in Palo Alto and San Fran too.
4.Microscopes and megaphones: Everything at UM is scrutinized far more than it should be, and becomes bigger and louder than it should be. This is often a benefit, but when things are going badly they can spiral and get out of control. They can become distractions. Small things become medium, and medium things can end careers. With Harbaugh this phenomenon is even more pronounced. He can do nothing and say nothing without it being reported, distributed world-wide and dissected by professionals and social media. Again, I like it now, and it has helped recruiting and the off-season, but if things start to go badly, or if there is an incident…it will be reported to death and hashed and re-hashed to the nth degree. I worry there may be a certain level of fragility to this team’s psyche this year. JH can’t fix everything in 8 months. This team doesn’t need distractions.
For me, it’ll be 8 or 9 and if I have to pick one, I’m generally an optimist so…9.
Go Blue!
Seems to be three kinds of predictors. Full of drink of some kind or want the team to be great but look at variables that may be helpful in making some sort of rational forecast or just grieving because the season will go to hell with few wins. I think the last folks just do that to decrease the pain if losses do happen.
Talked with my son about the possible season and how it goes. My only take is that Michigan will improve over the season more than anyone like Ohio State last year only with a much lower floor and higher ceiling. My son's take is like the negotiator he is. What follows is his take on the season.
I am ecstatic, and think Harbaugh was the perfect and only hire that could give me hope in the near term, but I see my maize and blue brethren going overboard with predictions. Contrary to some Harbaugh-maniacs, UM will not win the B1G (or division). They will not win 11+ games. Meyer and Saban are not running scared (neither is Dantonio). Still, it is with tremendous confidence that I say this team will be much improved and will win 7 – 10 games. I have little argument between 8 or 9 win predictions and think this is largely dependent on personality. Once you get to 6 or 11 (or beyond) then I think there’s either bias or lack of knowledge/logic (or both) involved. The high variance is because of so many unknowns, and the bizarre nature of UM’s program lately. Plus, CFB is full of year-to-year variance and unexpected seasons.
Here’s why they win 9 or 10:
1.Coaching: In college it is the most influential factor. Good coaching can make low level talent good, decent talent great, and good talent elite (e.g. Bill Snyder, Mark Dantonio). Great talent competes for the NC, but to win it, you need great coaching too. UM is a couple years away from that.
a.Harbaugh: His track record everywhere he’s been is impeccable and consistent. His teams improve quickly and win a lot. His QBs get better, faster and develop as much or more than any other position. QB was Hoke’s greatest neglect (though he neglected quite a bit). He didn’t recruit QB well, and he didn’t develop it at all. JH’s QB’s will be their personal best, and his offense will be effective and efficient. At Stanford his first year he achieved a 3-game improvement (with little talent and no proven QB) and at SF it was an 8 game improvement. He changes culture, develops talent, and hires great assistants.
b.Drevno: Funk was dealt a horrible hand with 2 non-frosh schollie linemen in 2012. He actually made strides last year, but Drevno is proven to be better and can work with lines young and old. They were not the big problem last year. RBs and QBs did not help them, and they’re an easy scapegoat. The OL will be the best since 2007.
c.Baxter: UM will rugby punt, will cover out of the spread, and will block punts/kicks. Baxter led NCAA during his Fresno tenure (beating VT), and turned USC into a top-5 blocked kick team in one year. UM will go from below average on ST to top-10. You can win a lot of games by winning ST. UM has been bad at ST for years and years. Things will be different starting Sept 3rd. This will be a game-changing unit. The FG-unit will be shaky so that could be an issue, but the rest will compensate.
d.Durkin: his energy and track record should play well with a veteran and talented D. Florida was neither a fluke nor all Muschamp. Last year this was a top-40 unit. Even Hoke got this side of the ball to perform (rather, GMatt did). This year, they’ll be a top-20 unit.
e.Addition by subtraction: Hoke and Co. did not develop players, did not prepare them, and did not coach well in games. His assistants were not top-tier. The two best coaches were Nuss and GMatt. GMatt is still on this staff and took a demotion. Each unit will be coached at a high level. JH’s attention to detail and game management are strengths rather than profound weaknesses.
2.Talent: I’ve heard this team isn’t talented. I disagree. They’ve not been developed. They’ve severely under-performed. Recruiting rankings can mean nothing when looking at a specific player, but they are significant when looking at entire classes and over multi-year periods. This team has more talent and depth than any team since 2007. Attrition plagued RR and early Hoke. Hoke’s only FB virtue will come to fruition over the next couple years. He did bring in football material, and he kept it in A2. He just couldn’t do anything with it. This is not an Alabama/FSU/USC type talented group, but it is MSU/Stan/NE type. Those teams routinely win 7 – 10 games even bouncing back from down years.
3.Roster makeup: They’ll have more 4th and 5th year guys in the two deep since 2011…and they’ll be more talented than that group. A 5thyear SR QB with 25 B1G starts will be huge (we all know it’ll be him). They’ll depend on fewer 1st/2nd year guys, and if young guys play it’ll be because they beat out scholarship upper classmen, and not because there were a last resort. The OL and DL will both have two-deeps of upper class veterans who were highly recruited. Last year, the roster was good enough to win more games, but roster make up has been a problem at UM since 2008. Attrition and bad fit has been an issue nearly every year until last year, and even then it wasn’t optimal. This year is better.
Here’s why they win 7 or 8:
1.Schedule: I think they’re the only (one of the few?) P5 team with 3 P5 non-conference games, and the best of the 3 is on the road. It’s nice to have the rivals at home, but they’re both top-5 types this year so the gap may be too much to cover simply by home-field. MN is going to be the toughest road B1G game and scares me more than Utah. Happy Valley could also be a problem, but I am not as high on PSU as many. Still, UM could realistically be underdogs in 6 games.
2.Injuries: at QB, TE and/or WR could render an already questionable passing game inept. There just is a dearth of depth and experience at these positions. I actually don’t mind the starters at these positions, but beyond that…yikes. The OL is deep, the front 7 is deep and it looks like the secondary is deep. This is the first year in a long time I could list that many units.
3.Too many moving parts/unkowns: New staff, 5th year transfers playing huge roles, key young guys not being who we thought they could…it just may be too much to be highly effective so soon. “It will take some time” is a prudent statement, but it could have been said in Palo Alto and San Fran too.
4.Microscopes and megaphones: Everything at UM is scrutinized far more than it should be, and becomes bigger and louder than it should be. This is often a benefit, but when things are going badly they can spiral and get out of control. They can become distractions. Small things become medium, and medium things can end careers. With Harbaugh this phenomenon is even more pronounced. He can do nothing and say nothing without it being reported, distributed world-wide and dissected by professionals and social media. Again, I like it now, and it has helped recruiting and the off-season, but if things start to go badly, or if there is an incident…it will be reported to death and hashed and re-hashed to the nth degree. I worry there may be a certain level of fragility to this team’s psyche this year. JH can’t fix everything in 8 months. This team doesn’t need distractions.
For me, it’ll be 8 or 9 and if I have to pick one, I’m generally an optimist so…9.
Go Blue!
