I touched on it in my column yesterday that this is not your usual tenacious Wisconsin defense.
I did some further digging and found something interesting. Wisconsin is 13th in scoring defense (and 22nd in points allowed per play) but 100th (!) in yards allowed per play. That is a vast difference.
So how do we square that? The Badgers' defense is 8th in avg. field position and 18th in finishing drives (points allowed per scoring opportunity [scoring opportunity is trip inside the opponent's 40-yard line]). Essentially, against Wisconsin, offenses typically start with poor field position but are able to sustain a drive past midfield. However, once those offenses cross the 40, the Badgers buckle down.
The numbers thus suggest that Michigan should be able to move the ball against Wisconsin's defense, but it will be key that U-M converts those scoring opportunities. Though the Wolverines are 36th in finishing drives, they are just 70th in red zone touchdown rate, and in past season, this offense has had trouble crossing the goal line as the field compresses. This will be a game where Michigan will need Shea Patterson to exploit a depleted (and not that great?) Wisconsin secondary with some long balls or the offense to execute much better in the red zone. Otherwise, Quinn Nordin will have his work cut out for him (which reminds me of Kenny Allen's off day vs. Wisconsin in 2016).
I did some further digging and found something interesting. Wisconsin is 13th in scoring defense (and 22nd in points allowed per play) but 100th (!) in yards allowed per play. That is a vast difference.
So how do we square that? The Badgers' defense is 8th in avg. field position and 18th in finishing drives (points allowed per scoring opportunity [scoring opportunity is trip inside the opponent's 40-yard line]). Essentially, against Wisconsin, offenses typically start with poor field position but are able to sustain a drive past midfield. However, once those offenses cross the 40, the Badgers buckle down.
The numbers thus suggest that Michigan should be able to move the ball against Wisconsin's defense, but it will be key that U-M converts those scoring opportunities. Though the Wolverines are 36th in finishing drives, they are just 70th in red zone touchdown rate, and in past season, this offense has had trouble crossing the goal line as the field compresses. This will be a game where Michigan will need Shea Patterson to exploit a depleted (and not that great?) Wisconsin secondary with some long balls or the offense to execute much better in the red zone. Otherwise, Quinn Nordin will have his work cut out for him (which reminds me of Kenny Allen's off day vs. Wisconsin in 2016).
