A while back I did a results based analysis of the top programs. It’s very long, but takes a comprehensive look of Michigan compared with other programs...
https://michigan.forums.rivals.com/...e-harbaugh-era-2015-2019.300126/#post-5245765
For this exercise, I took a look at the top 25 recruiting classes over the Harbaugh era (recruiting years 20016-2020), specifically to find where we compare versus teams that win championships and go to the playoffs. In other words, I wanted to define the gap in talent between us and OSU (and others...).
One of the obvious points that this analysis really supports is that there are basically 5 or 6 programs gobbling up the top 60 prospects each year. We need to be one of those programs. BUT, there’s hope! We are a few misses here and there away from having a roster very similar to current champ LSU. And we are in pretty good position to compete for a top 5 position this year. Those aren’t the only conclusions, but I don’t want to give it all away just yet. Lol.
Anyway, I used the composite rankings and compared the top 25 teams. I compared # of top 60 recruits, top 150 recruits, and top 370ish recruits (Varied year to year for composite 4 stars), and total # of recruits. Here’s a synopsis of the top 15 teams, and a quick discussion on what Michigan needs to close the gap...
Alabama...The Crimson Tide signed 128 players in the last 5 classes. 96 of them were 4 stars or better. 29 were top 60, 68 top 150, and 28 more were 4 stars. 75% of Alabama signees are 4* or better. They sign 20 4* or better every year...
Georgia...The Dawgs signed 125 players, 89 4*+, 37 top 60, 57 top 150, 32 low 4*. 71% 4*+, 18/yr.
Ohio State...114 signees, 87 4*+, 27 top 60, 52 top 150, 35 low 4*. 76% 17/yr.
Clemson...106 signees, 64 4*+, 24 top 60, 39 top 150, 25 low 4*. 60% 13/yr.
LSU...122 signed, 77 4*+, 18 top 60, 42 top 150, 35 low 4*. 63% 15/yr.
Michigan...126 signed, 74 4*+, 9 top 60, 30 top 150, 44 low 4*. 59% 15/yr.
Texas...119 signed, 72 4*+, 13 top 60, 36 top 150, 36 low 4*. 61% 14/yr.
Oklahoma...119 signed, 67 4*+, 6 top 60, 25 top 150, 42 low 4*, 56% 13/yr.
Auburn...116 signed, 65 4*+, 9 top 60, 25 top 150, 40 low 4*, 56% 13/yr.
Florida...117 signed, 64 4*+, 7 top 60, 24 top 150, 40 low 4*, 55% 13/yr.
Florida St...116 signed, 60 4*+, 16 top 60, 28 top 150, 32 low 4*. 52% 12/yr.
Penn St...115 signed, 59 4*+, 9 top 60, 22 top 150, 37 low 4*, 51% 12/yr.
Notre Dame...107 signed, 59 4*+, 4 top 60, 28 top 150, 34 low 4*, 54% 12/yr.
Texas A&M...124 signed, 58 4*+, 7 top 60, 25 top 150, 36 low 4*, 47% 12/yr.
USC...101 signed, 55 4*+, 19 top 60, 33 top 150, 22 low 4*, 54% 11/yr.
So, obviously Ohio St is ahead of us in all categories, except low 4*’s. In a five year period, they have 18 more top 60 players and 22 top 150 guys. They’re getting the top-top guys. This, ladies and gentleman, best defines “the gap”, IMHO, of course.
It is also my humble opinion that we probably cannot catch OSU (or Bama, or Georgia) until they stumble. We can hope for two things with Ryan Day: 1) he is the next Larry Coker, or 2) he gets an opportunity in the NFL.
THat’s the bad news. Ohio State is gonna get theirs....
The good news is that we can close the gap. I think we can get to LSU’s level, top 5, on the recruiting trail. LSU had 9 more top 60 guys and 12 more top 150 guys over 5 years. It basically equates to us getting 4 or 5 top 60 guys and another 4 or 5 top 150 guys on a consistent basis. We are in strong position to do that with early commitments for top top guys McCarthy and El-Hadi. Spindler, Edwards, and Fidone could get us 5 top 60 guys. We are in really good position for a couple dozen other 4 stars.
Currently, I think we can beat Ohio State on any given year with our best effort. But with the talent gap illustrated above, we’d be kinda lucky to win 2/5. But we don’t have an 0-5 talent gap...1-4 or 2-3 talent gap? Yep...that’s probably the difference between a top 3 program and a top 10 program.
https://michigan.forums.rivals.com/...e-harbaugh-era-2015-2019.300126/#post-5245765
For this exercise, I took a look at the top 25 recruiting classes over the Harbaugh era (recruiting years 20016-2020), specifically to find where we compare versus teams that win championships and go to the playoffs. In other words, I wanted to define the gap in talent between us and OSU (and others...).
One of the obvious points that this analysis really supports is that there are basically 5 or 6 programs gobbling up the top 60 prospects each year. We need to be one of those programs. BUT, there’s hope! We are a few misses here and there away from having a roster very similar to current champ LSU. And we are in pretty good position to compete for a top 5 position this year. Those aren’t the only conclusions, but I don’t want to give it all away just yet. Lol.
Anyway, I used the composite rankings and compared the top 25 teams. I compared # of top 60 recruits, top 150 recruits, and top 370ish recruits (Varied year to year for composite 4 stars), and total # of recruits. Here’s a synopsis of the top 15 teams, and a quick discussion on what Michigan needs to close the gap...
Alabama...The Crimson Tide signed 128 players in the last 5 classes. 96 of them were 4 stars or better. 29 were top 60, 68 top 150, and 28 more were 4 stars. 75% of Alabama signees are 4* or better. They sign 20 4* or better every year...
Georgia...The Dawgs signed 125 players, 89 4*+, 37 top 60, 57 top 150, 32 low 4*. 71% 4*+, 18/yr.
Ohio State...114 signees, 87 4*+, 27 top 60, 52 top 150, 35 low 4*. 76% 17/yr.
Clemson...106 signees, 64 4*+, 24 top 60, 39 top 150, 25 low 4*. 60% 13/yr.
LSU...122 signed, 77 4*+, 18 top 60, 42 top 150, 35 low 4*. 63% 15/yr.
Michigan...126 signed, 74 4*+, 9 top 60, 30 top 150, 44 low 4*. 59% 15/yr.
Texas...119 signed, 72 4*+, 13 top 60, 36 top 150, 36 low 4*. 61% 14/yr.
Oklahoma...119 signed, 67 4*+, 6 top 60, 25 top 150, 42 low 4*, 56% 13/yr.
Auburn...116 signed, 65 4*+, 9 top 60, 25 top 150, 40 low 4*, 56% 13/yr.
Florida...117 signed, 64 4*+, 7 top 60, 24 top 150, 40 low 4*, 55% 13/yr.
Florida St...116 signed, 60 4*+, 16 top 60, 28 top 150, 32 low 4*. 52% 12/yr.
Penn St...115 signed, 59 4*+, 9 top 60, 22 top 150, 37 low 4*, 51% 12/yr.
Notre Dame...107 signed, 59 4*+, 4 top 60, 28 top 150, 34 low 4*, 54% 12/yr.
Texas A&M...124 signed, 58 4*+, 7 top 60, 25 top 150, 36 low 4*, 47% 12/yr.
USC...101 signed, 55 4*+, 19 top 60, 33 top 150, 22 low 4*, 54% 11/yr.
So, obviously Ohio St is ahead of us in all categories, except low 4*’s. In a five year period, they have 18 more top 60 players and 22 top 150 guys. They’re getting the top-top guys. This, ladies and gentleman, best defines “the gap”, IMHO, of course.
It is also my humble opinion that we probably cannot catch OSU (or Bama, or Georgia) until they stumble. We can hope for two things with Ryan Day: 1) he is the next Larry Coker, or 2) he gets an opportunity in the NFL.
THat’s the bad news. Ohio State is gonna get theirs....
The good news is that we can close the gap. I think we can get to LSU’s level, top 5, on the recruiting trail. LSU had 9 more top 60 guys and 12 more top 150 guys over 5 years. It basically equates to us getting 4 or 5 top 60 guys and another 4 or 5 top 150 guys on a consistent basis. We are in strong position to do that with early commitments for top top guys McCarthy and El-Hadi. Spindler, Edwards, and Fidone could get us 5 top 60 guys. We are in really good position for a couple dozen other 4 stars.
Currently, I think we can beat Ohio State on any given year with our best effort. But with the talent gap illustrated above, we’d be kinda lucky to win 2/5. But we don’t have an 0-5 talent gap...1-4 or 2-3 talent gap? Yep...that’s probably the difference between a top 3 program and a top 10 program.
