1. Northwestern provides some unique challenges. Although they have played mostly man-to-man this year, they are experienced in playing zone, and played it very effectively against us last season. They initiate offense almost exclusively through point forwards/wings, all of whom are 6'5"-6'7", and move the ball more by passing than via the dribble. This may negate one of our strengths, Zavier Simpson's ability to absolutely stop offensive flow through frustration of an opposing PG (Northwestern does not really play a PG). I suspect Northwestern will try to post up Z some with bigger wings.
2. That said, Northwestern has not been a very good offensive team this year, largely because they do not shoot the ball very well at all, especially from distance. When we lost at the Allstate Arena last year, two guys--Bryant McIntosh (who had the single best game by a PG in the Zavier Simpson era) and Scottie Lindsey--absolutely killed us, scoring a combined 43 points including 7-9 from 3. Those guys are gone, and the Cats' 2 other leading returnees, Vic Law and Derrick Pardon, had quiet games in both Rosemont and Ann Arbor. Barring an unexpected night where everything falls (which, of course, can happen, particularly on the road), Northwestern is unlikely to score a ton of points, especially given our defense and their slow pace.
3. Northwestern is a good defensive team, and ranks very well in both preventing 3 point attempts and make percentage on those attempts. We have shot the ball much better recently, but I think we will have more success against the Cats by getting to the basket. Pardon is not a great shot blocker, and Northwestern cannot afford to get any of their top 4 guys, all of whom average more minutes per game than anyone on Michigan, in foul trouble.
4. I know Billy Donlon coaches Northwestern. I think his familiarity with kids he had coached like Mo, MAAR and Duncan, was invaluable to Northwestern last year. This year, those guys are gone, and the only guys left in our rotation whom he coached are Matthews (who was on the practice squad while he sat out his transfer year during Donlon's time in Ann Arbor, Teske (who played 60 minutes the whole year), Davis (who redshirted that year), and Simpson (who played sparingly behind Walton. Billy is a very good coach (and a good guy to boot), but I don't see familiarity as being a key to this game.
5. The way Northwestern can win this (aside from a fluky shooting night) is in a slugfest where the winner scores in the 50s (or maybe, maybe, very low 60s). I'm not discounting that possibility at all--I've been to the last 3 road horror shows involving the Cats (last year, the miracle pass to Pardon the year before, the double OT loss after Tre Demps tied it up with 3s at the very end of both regulation and the first OT), and each time feels a bit like going to see the movie Groundhog Day. Nonetheless, we are a significantly better team. Northwestern is a team at about the level as Providence to my eyes, albeit they are at home. We are likely to win (though that is by no means a gimme), but it may be a low scoring tussle (as was Providence, other than during our end of-the first half spurt).
2. That said, Northwestern has not been a very good offensive team this year, largely because they do not shoot the ball very well at all, especially from distance. When we lost at the Allstate Arena last year, two guys--Bryant McIntosh (who had the single best game by a PG in the Zavier Simpson era) and Scottie Lindsey--absolutely killed us, scoring a combined 43 points including 7-9 from 3. Those guys are gone, and the Cats' 2 other leading returnees, Vic Law and Derrick Pardon, had quiet games in both Rosemont and Ann Arbor. Barring an unexpected night where everything falls (which, of course, can happen, particularly on the road), Northwestern is unlikely to score a ton of points, especially given our defense and their slow pace.
3. Northwestern is a good defensive team, and ranks very well in both preventing 3 point attempts and make percentage on those attempts. We have shot the ball much better recently, but I think we will have more success against the Cats by getting to the basket. Pardon is not a great shot blocker, and Northwestern cannot afford to get any of their top 4 guys, all of whom average more minutes per game than anyone on Michigan, in foul trouble.
4. I know Billy Donlon coaches Northwestern. I think his familiarity with kids he had coached like Mo, MAAR and Duncan, was invaluable to Northwestern last year. This year, those guys are gone, and the only guys left in our rotation whom he coached are Matthews (who was on the practice squad while he sat out his transfer year during Donlon's time in Ann Arbor, Teske (who played 60 minutes the whole year), Davis (who redshirted that year), and Simpson (who played sparingly behind Walton. Billy is a very good coach (and a good guy to boot), but I don't see familiarity as being a key to this game.
5. The way Northwestern can win this (aside from a fluky shooting night) is in a slugfest where the winner scores in the 50s (or maybe, maybe, very low 60s). I'm not discounting that possibility at all--I've been to the last 3 road horror shows involving the Cats (last year, the miracle pass to Pardon the year before, the double OT loss after Tre Demps tied it up with 3s at the very end of both regulation and the first OT), and each time feels a bit like going to see the movie Groundhog Day. Nonetheless, we are a significantly better team. Northwestern is a team at about the level as Providence to my eyes, albeit they are at home. We are likely to win (though that is by no means a gimme), but it may be a low scoring tussle (as was Providence, other than during our end of-the first half spurt).
