The heavy graduation losses of the core of Brady Hoke's two top recruiting classes were clearly going to hit us this year and I already saw that when Jim Harbaugh was hired. I always targeted 2018 as the year when we would have the veteran talent to make a national-title run but tempered expectations for that year as well as our schedule has OSU, ND and MSU all on the road.
Going into this season, however, I had a better feeling for 2018 as ND and MSU were both clearly on the downtrend since Harbaugh was hired, which would have only left OSU as the major "away" hurdle in 2018. I am no longer feeling better.
Fact is, I assumed that by this season Harbaugh's coaching moxie would suffice to be able to beat a clearly lesser talented team such as MSU playing in the Big House. After all, at Stanford he developed a rep of being able to beat more talented teams, especially USC, with a less talented roster. So the reasonable assumption was that he would be able to beat less talented teams, such as MSU this year, with no problem.
Alas, that has not happened, and the disturbing takeaways from yesterday's loss were that:
i) Dantonio is the one who is now beating up on the more talented team, and while on the road at that and
ii) The data points from Harbaugh's coaching success at Stanford that suggested that he is an extraordinary coach who could beat elite teams such as USC and win major bowl games with lesser talent are now being tainted by more recent data points as the Michigan head coach that suggest that he can lose to less talented teams while at home, and whether that is due to our team youth, offensive play calling, poor coaching at various offensive positions, talent mis-evaluation when recruiting for certain offensive spots or whatever is not the point. The point is that it is happening.
I still think that Harbaugh has the coaching acumen and skills to turn things around at Michigan. However, for the first time I seriously ponder whether the sense of inevitability within our fan base that he would do so and turn Michigan into a national championship caliber program at the Ohio State level was more wishful thinking on our part than grounded in actual reality. Perhaps the alternative for our fan base, that we would not get to that level under Harbaugh, was too hard to envision let alone swallow. But look at Michigan's history in the modern era of football. With all the great seasons that Bo had as coach how many national titles did that produce? I fondly recall that 1970s era of Bo vs. Woody, known as the ten year war. Alas, how many Rose Bowl wins did Bo have in that period? Zero. Nada. His first win came in the 1980 season, a season by the way that started miserably with losses to ND and South Carolina, so not a national championship contending team. I think our strongest five year run may have been the one with the Desmond Howard/Elvis/Steve Everitt/Doug Skene class where the fifth year guys walked away with five Big Ten championship rings. Still, not close to a national title. Our 1997 team won it all, or at least per the media poll. Still, somewhat of an anomaly given the four consecutive four loss seasons before-hand and the ups and downs of the subsequent Carr-era teams. Thank God for Charles Woodson, a generational talent who helped to put us over the hump. A national championship team but still not a program competing year-in and year-out at the highest level such as we see with Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State today.
So what if Harbaugh can't get us to that level (I was about to automatically say BACK to that level, but the facts as I just noted do not merit the "back" reference, so I guess I am as guilty of fondly sugarcoating/cherry-picking the past as any)? Have we all been drinking the Kool-Aid? Have we put Harbaugh up on such a high pedestal based on our own psychological needs, as Michigan fans, to do so? In particular after it seemed like we were wandering in the desert for forty years under RichRod and Hoke and needed a Moses-like figure to lead us to the promised land?
What will be the REALITY of the situation when all is said and done? Will he actually be our Moses-like figure or will he be our Wizard of Oz, where when all is said is done and when the veil is finally lifted he is just a simple coach who we made out to be much more than he actually was?
Have we, as a Michigan fan base been anything more than mere dreamers? Simply asking the question brought back memories of the Supertramp song “Dreamer”:
Dreamer, you know you are a dreamer
Well can you put your hands in your head, oh no!
I said dreamer, you're nothing but a dreamer
Well can you put your hands in your head, oh no!
I said "Far out, what a day, a year, a life it is!"
You know, well you know you had it comin' to you
Now there's not a lot I can do
Dreamer, you stupid little dreamer
So now you put your head in your hands, oh no!
Wow!
So have our collective heads as Michigan fans been merely spinning with dreams since the day Harbaugh was announced as the new head coach back in late December 2014? I suspect so. However, after yesterday's performance going forward (and especially starting next season when it will be an experienced team with players from HIS recruiting cycles in most key roles) he will be judged by the Michigan fan base more on the REALITY of what has and has not ACHIEVED on the field than in our hopes and dreams of the future of Michigan football. Dreams are no longer my reality.
Will he lead us into a golden era of Michigan football, with successes of near Biblical proportions? Or are we following our yellow brick road in search of a Wizard who is no more than a mere mortal and at best after we click our ruby slippers we go back home, to where we once were pre-RichRod and Hoke, which isn’t necessarily a bad place. After all, there’s no place like home.
Going into this season, however, I had a better feeling for 2018 as ND and MSU were both clearly on the downtrend since Harbaugh was hired, which would have only left OSU as the major "away" hurdle in 2018. I am no longer feeling better.
Fact is, I assumed that by this season Harbaugh's coaching moxie would suffice to be able to beat a clearly lesser talented team such as MSU playing in the Big House. After all, at Stanford he developed a rep of being able to beat more talented teams, especially USC, with a less talented roster. So the reasonable assumption was that he would be able to beat less talented teams, such as MSU this year, with no problem.
Alas, that has not happened, and the disturbing takeaways from yesterday's loss were that:
i) Dantonio is the one who is now beating up on the more talented team, and while on the road at that and
ii) The data points from Harbaugh's coaching success at Stanford that suggested that he is an extraordinary coach who could beat elite teams such as USC and win major bowl games with lesser talent are now being tainted by more recent data points as the Michigan head coach that suggest that he can lose to less talented teams while at home, and whether that is due to our team youth, offensive play calling, poor coaching at various offensive positions, talent mis-evaluation when recruiting for certain offensive spots or whatever is not the point. The point is that it is happening.
I still think that Harbaugh has the coaching acumen and skills to turn things around at Michigan. However, for the first time I seriously ponder whether the sense of inevitability within our fan base that he would do so and turn Michigan into a national championship caliber program at the Ohio State level was more wishful thinking on our part than grounded in actual reality. Perhaps the alternative for our fan base, that we would not get to that level under Harbaugh, was too hard to envision let alone swallow. But look at Michigan's history in the modern era of football. With all the great seasons that Bo had as coach how many national titles did that produce? I fondly recall that 1970s era of Bo vs. Woody, known as the ten year war. Alas, how many Rose Bowl wins did Bo have in that period? Zero. Nada. His first win came in the 1980 season, a season by the way that started miserably with losses to ND and South Carolina, so not a national championship contending team. I think our strongest five year run may have been the one with the Desmond Howard/Elvis/Steve Everitt/Doug Skene class where the fifth year guys walked away with five Big Ten championship rings. Still, not close to a national title. Our 1997 team won it all, or at least per the media poll. Still, somewhat of an anomaly given the four consecutive four loss seasons before-hand and the ups and downs of the subsequent Carr-era teams. Thank God for Charles Woodson, a generational talent who helped to put us over the hump. A national championship team but still not a program competing year-in and year-out at the highest level such as we see with Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State today.
So what if Harbaugh can't get us to that level (I was about to automatically say BACK to that level, but the facts as I just noted do not merit the "back" reference, so I guess I am as guilty of fondly sugarcoating/cherry-picking the past as any)? Have we all been drinking the Kool-Aid? Have we put Harbaugh up on such a high pedestal based on our own psychological needs, as Michigan fans, to do so? In particular after it seemed like we were wandering in the desert for forty years under RichRod and Hoke and needed a Moses-like figure to lead us to the promised land?
What will be the REALITY of the situation when all is said and done? Will he actually be our Moses-like figure or will he be our Wizard of Oz, where when all is said is done and when the veil is finally lifted he is just a simple coach who we made out to be much more than he actually was?
Have we, as a Michigan fan base been anything more than mere dreamers? Simply asking the question brought back memories of the Supertramp song “Dreamer”:
Dreamer, you know you are a dreamer
Well can you put your hands in your head, oh no!
I said dreamer, you're nothing but a dreamer
Well can you put your hands in your head, oh no!
I said "Far out, what a day, a year, a life it is!"
You know, well you know you had it comin' to you
Now there's not a lot I can do
Dreamer, you stupid little dreamer
So now you put your head in your hands, oh no!
Wow!
So have our collective heads as Michigan fans been merely spinning with dreams since the day Harbaugh was announced as the new head coach back in late December 2014? I suspect so. However, after yesterday's performance going forward (and especially starting next season when it will be an experienced team with players from HIS recruiting cycles in most key roles) he will be judged by the Michigan fan base more on the REALITY of what has and has not ACHIEVED on the field than in our hopes and dreams of the future of Michigan football. Dreams are no longer my reality.
Will he lead us into a golden era of Michigan football, with successes of near Biblical proportions? Or are we following our yellow brick road in search of a Wizard who is no more than a mere mortal and at best after we click our ruby slippers we go back home, to where we once were pre-RichRod and Hoke, which isn’t necessarily a bad place. After all, there’s no place like home.
