I don't post much, but one stat jumped out at me when I did some digging: 18.9
What is 18.9? That is the average quarterback rating (QBR) against UM of the 8 QBs who have played against us this year. A QBR of 18.9 would rank as 130/132 in all of NCAA!
I strongly believe we can contain PSU's passing game given how our defense has played thus far.
As for Saquon Barkley, he has rushed for less than 100 yards in four of his six starts. In fairness, in 3 of those games he averaged 4.7, 4.7 and 6.3 YPC. So his low yards were a function of fewer carries rather than the defense really stopping him. However, against Indiana, Barkley rushed for 56 yards on 20 carries, for 2.8 YPC. Of course, against that same IU defense, with no passing game to speak of, Karan Higdon rushed for 200 yards on 25 carries for 8.0 YPC. Given our defense's strength against the run, I believe we can hold Barkley in check.
To me, the key to the game defensively is to limit McSorley's rushing yards. In his first four games, he rushed for 48, 65, 24 and 61 yards. In his last two games, against IU and NW, he rushed for -19 and -1 yards.
If we can do the following, I think we can beat PSU:
-- Hold McSorley to under 200 yards passing;
-- Hold Saquon Barkely to under 100 yards rushing;
-- Hold McSorley to under 25 yards rushing;
-- Not allow any big punt or kickoff returns.
-- Establish an effective running game;
-- Hit on a couple of play action passes;
-- At least get in field goal range for Nordin if we cannot make it into the red zone.
My prediction: UM 19, PSU 17.
What is 18.9? That is the average quarterback rating (QBR) against UM of the 8 QBs who have played against us this year. A QBR of 18.9 would rank as 130/132 in all of NCAA!
I strongly believe we can contain PSU's passing game given how our defense has played thus far.
As for Saquon Barkley, he has rushed for less than 100 yards in four of his six starts. In fairness, in 3 of those games he averaged 4.7, 4.7 and 6.3 YPC. So his low yards were a function of fewer carries rather than the defense really stopping him. However, against Indiana, Barkley rushed for 56 yards on 20 carries, for 2.8 YPC. Of course, against that same IU defense, with no passing game to speak of, Karan Higdon rushed for 200 yards on 25 carries for 8.0 YPC. Given our defense's strength against the run, I believe we can hold Barkley in check.
To me, the key to the game defensively is to limit McSorley's rushing yards. In his first four games, he rushed for 48, 65, 24 and 61 yards. In his last two games, against IU and NW, he rushed for -19 and -1 yards.
If we can do the following, I think we can beat PSU:
-- Hold McSorley to under 200 yards passing;
-- Hold Saquon Barkely to under 100 yards rushing;
-- Hold McSorley to under 25 yards rushing;
-- Not allow any big punt or kickoff returns.
-- Establish an effective running game;
-- Hit on a couple of play action passes;
-- At least get in field goal range for Nordin if we cannot make it into the red zone.
My prediction: UM 19, PSU 17.
