Originally, I started this exercise thinking that with our turtle-like tempo we don’t run as many plays as the best teams in the country. I think our offense was very efficient most of the year, but maybe too methodical. And I thought we tried to run the ball too much compared to others. Somewhat surprisingly, that’s not necessarily the case. I also compared the 2017 vs 2018 offenses to see how much we evolved this year and what to expect next year...
Here are the results...I apologize if the format gets goofy.
Team/Year/Plays/Total Offense/PPG/completions-attempts/Passing yards/Rushes/rushing yards...
Michigan 2017 65 349 25 14/26 171 41 178
Michigan 2018 69 419 35 17/27 215 42 204
Alabama 2017 68 444 37 15/24 193 44 251
Alabama 2018 67 528 48 20/29 326 38 202
Clemson 2017 75 431 33 22/34 236 41 195
Clemson 2018 72 532 44 22/34 274 38 258
Okla. 2017 70 580 45 22/31 362 39 220
Okla. 2018 66 571 48 20/29 323 37 248
Ohio st. 2017 73 506 41 21/31 263 42 243
Ohio st. 2018 81 549 44 29/40 367 41 182
Notre D. 2017 70 448 34 14/27 179 43 269
Notre D. 2018 73 440 31 21/32 258 41 182
Georgia 2017 65 435 35 12/20 177 45 258
Georgia 2018 66 479 39 17/25 227 41 252
Penn St 2017 70 460 41 23/35 290 35 170
Penn St 2018 69 424 35 16/29 216 40 208
Wash. 2017 63 405 36 19/27 222 36 183
Wash. 2018 68 412 27 18/27 232 41 180
Conclusions...
1) Our offense really improved this year with Shea going form 25 to 35 PPG and total offense from 349 ypg to 419. Those were 40% and 17% improvements.
2) EVERYBODY runs the ball between 38 and 42 times per game with a few outliers INCLUDING Penn State with Saquon Barkley due to that horrible OL. Obviously not all runs are created equally.
3) ALABAMA, the prototype for man ball pro style offense, evolved with a capable dual threat QB and shifted from a run dominant offense in 2017 to a pass dominant offense and improved their total offense by 19% and scoring offense by 30%!!!
4) Clemson, Ohio State, and Notre Dame get a few more plays off per game. Everybody else is in the same neighborhood at just less than 70 offensive plays per game. This surprised me.
5) Every team on this list passed for more yards per game than Michigan. This did not surprise me.
6) Most of the teams on this list passed for significantly more yards than Michigan (>20%) in 2018.
7) Bama, Clemson, Oklahoma, Ohio State and Notre Dame averaged 94 ypg more through the air in 2018. Penn St 2017 would be in that club as well
8) Speaking of Penn State, the losses of Barkley and Moorhead absolutely killed their PASSING game, going from 290 to 216 ypg. BUT they improved their run game from 170 to 208. I’d conclude that their OL sucked in 2017, but also that they were very good at getting him the ball in space.
9) Our offense in 2018 most resembled the Clemson of 2017 led by Kelly Bryant, whom Clemson moved on from because it wasn’t good enough.
10) The top 6 teams on this list all shifted a portion of their offense from Run to Pass by 7% including Georgia. Clemson shifted 7% of their offense and improved their rushing yards/game by 32% (of course, Etienne had a very good year due to Lawrence being such a threat to throw).
11) Most of the top teams had significant improvement/production from the QB position. Bama went from Hurts to Tua, Oklahoma replaced a Heismann with a Heismann, Clemson let a very good QB go for a better one from Bryant to Lawrence, Notre Dame benched Wimbush for Book, Ohio State replaced a 3+ year starter and got better from Barrett to Haskins, Fromm improved by nearly 30%. Only Penn State and Washington regressed a bit with QBs that basically had hit their ceilings.
Summary...
We made some huge strides this year with competent QB play, BUT there’s another level to get to. We need to shift up to 10% of our offense towards the pass, and it might just open up the run game some more. This could go either way, but I’m hoping Shea follows Fromm’s path and his numbers improve by 30%. If not, it may be necessary to go with McAffrey or Milton to take the next step. We’re gonna need our offense to carry the load, especially early in the season.
I’m faithful that it’s going to happen. It may be a blessing that Evans is not the ideal “banger”. Maybe Charbonnet can play that role when we need it, but it’s time to put the ball in Shea’s hands and use the running game to complement him. We have a veteran OL to protect him, veteran WRs that are hungry to perfrom, and capable backups if he gets dinged up OR if he doesn’t perform. I look forward to seeing what he can do....
Projections...
I believe the Clemson 2018 offense should be our target next year. We’ll need to run a few more plays and throw a few more passes. Here are my “stretch” goals...
Plays per game...75 from 69 or a 9% improvement.
Yards per game...500 from 419 or a 19% improvement.
Points per game...40 from 35 or a 12.5% improvement.
Attempts/comp....22/35 from 17/27 or 30% improvement (like Fromm).
Pass ypg.............280 from 215 or a 30% improvement (like Fromm).
Rushing attempt...40 from 42 or 5% less. just a tweak...
Rushing yards......225 from 204 or a 10% improvement.
I dont’ think these are unreasonable with an offense that returns basically intact. More shots for the WRs to set up a more efficient running game with a starter that should get the ball more in space vs. running off tackle. Put some pressure on the defense to back a guy off the line of scrimmage. We have the horses, now let’s see what the General can do with them.
Here are the results...I apologize if the format gets goofy.
Team/Year/Plays/Total Offense/PPG/completions-attempts/Passing yards/Rushes/rushing yards...
Michigan 2017 65 349 25 14/26 171 41 178
Michigan 2018 69 419 35 17/27 215 42 204
Alabama 2017 68 444 37 15/24 193 44 251
Alabama 2018 67 528 48 20/29 326 38 202
Clemson 2017 75 431 33 22/34 236 41 195
Clemson 2018 72 532 44 22/34 274 38 258
Okla. 2017 70 580 45 22/31 362 39 220
Okla. 2018 66 571 48 20/29 323 37 248
Ohio st. 2017 73 506 41 21/31 263 42 243
Ohio st. 2018 81 549 44 29/40 367 41 182
Notre D. 2017 70 448 34 14/27 179 43 269
Notre D. 2018 73 440 31 21/32 258 41 182
Georgia 2017 65 435 35 12/20 177 45 258
Georgia 2018 66 479 39 17/25 227 41 252
Penn St 2017 70 460 41 23/35 290 35 170
Penn St 2018 69 424 35 16/29 216 40 208
Wash. 2017 63 405 36 19/27 222 36 183
Wash. 2018 68 412 27 18/27 232 41 180
Conclusions...
1) Our offense really improved this year with Shea going form 25 to 35 PPG and total offense from 349 ypg to 419. Those were 40% and 17% improvements.
2) EVERYBODY runs the ball between 38 and 42 times per game with a few outliers INCLUDING Penn State with Saquon Barkley due to that horrible OL. Obviously not all runs are created equally.
3) ALABAMA, the prototype for man ball pro style offense, evolved with a capable dual threat QB and shifted from a run dominant offense in 2017 to a pass dominant offense and improved their total offense by 19% and scoring offense by 30%!!!
4) Clemson, Ohio State, and Notre Dame get a few more plays off per game. Everybody else is in the same neighborhood at just less than 70 offensive plays per game. This surprised me.
5) Every team on this list passed for more yards per game than Michigan. This did not surprise me.
6) Most of the teams on this list passed for significantly more yards than Michigan (>20%) in 2018.
7) Bama, Clemson, Oklahoma, Ohio State and Notre Dame averaged 94 ypg more through the air in 2018. Penn St 2017 would be in that club as well
8) Speaking of Penn State, the losses of Barkley and Moorhead absolutely killed their PASSING game, going from 290 to 216 ypg. BUT they improved their run game from 170 to 208. I’d conclude that their OL sucked in 2017, but also that they were very good at getting him the ball in space.
9) Our offense in 2018 most resembled the Clemson of 2017 led by Kelly Bryant, whom Clemson moved on from because it wasn’t good enough.
10) The top 6 teams on this list all shifted a portion of their offense from Run to Pass by 7% including Georgia. Clemson shifted 7% of their offense and improved their rushing yards/game by 32% (of course, Etienne had a very good year due to Lawrence being such a threat to throw).
11) Most of the top teams had significant improvement/production from the QB position. Bama went from Hurts to Tua, Oklahoma replaced a Heismann with a Heismann, Clemson let a very good QB go for a better one from Bryant to Lawrence, Notre Dame benched Wimbush for Book, Ohio State replaced a 3+ year starter and got better from Barrett to Haskins, Fromm improved by nearly 30%. Only Penn State and Washington regressed a bit with QBs that basically had hit their ceilings.
Summary...
We made some huge strides this year with competent QB play, BUT there’s another level to get to. We need to shift up to 10% of our offense towards the pass, and it might just open up the run game some more. This could go either way, but I’m hoping Shea follows Fromm’s path and his numbers improve by 30%. If not, it may be necessary to go with McAffrey or Milton to take the next step. We’re gonna need our offense to carry the load, especially early in the season.
I’m faithful that it’s going to happen. It may be a blessing that Evans is not the ideal “banger”. Maybe Charbonnet can play that role when we need it, but it’s time to put the ball in Shea’s hands and use the running game to complement him. We have a veteran OL to protect him, veteran WRs that are hungry to perfrom, and capable backups if he gets dinged up OR if he doesn’t perform. I look forward to seeing what he can do....
Projections...
I believe the Clemson 2018 offense should be our target next year. We’ll need to run a few more plays and throw a few more passes. Here are my “stretch” goals...
Plays per game...75 from 69 or a 9% improvement.
Yards per game...500 from 419 or a 19% improvement.
Points per game...40 from 35 or a 12.5% improvement.
Attempts/comp....22/35 from 17/27 or 30% improvement (like Fromm).
Pass ypg.............280 from 215 or a 30% improvement (like Fromm).
Rushing attempt...40 from 42 or 5% less. just a tweak...
Rushing yards......225 from 204 or a 10% improvement.
I dont’ think these are unreasonable with an offense that returns basically intact. More shots for the WRs to set up a more efficient running game with a starter that should get the ball more in space vs. running off tackle. Put some pressure on the defense to back a guy off the line of scrimmage. We have the horses, now let’s see what the General can do with them.
