These 11 teams have a chance to finish with 1 loss or less. Of these 11, IMO, 8 have a legit shot:
I rank them by either likelihood or controlling their own destiny.
Numbers 1-5 control their own destiny. Numbers 6-7 (UM/Cinci) need help.
I think ND needs a lot of help because don’t think they can jump Cinci if both win out.
more below, but with a lot of repetition
If you look at the top 13 in today’s poll, we can lump them as follows:
It’s going to be tough for a nonconference champion to make it in to the CFP this year. The only team that people seem to think would have a shot is a 12-1 Georgia team that loses a close SEC championship game to Alabama.
I think Wake Forest (ACC) is out.
I think B12 (OSU, Baylor, OU) is out.
I think Ole Miss is out.
I think the SEC champion, as long as it is Georgia or Alabama, is guaranteed a spot.
The B10 has 3 hopefuls and all have a loss. Amongst the 3 B10 hopefuls, there are 3 big games that will determine if the conference can send a team to the CFP.
A 12-1 B10 champ, almost certainly, goes.
OSU over Oregon would be a tough argument in the Gaylord Texan if both were 1-loss conference champions and they were competing for the final spot. For this scenario to happen, Cinci or GA/Bama would have to jump into the top 4. Still, there is likely room for both Oregon and OSU.
Oklahoma’s Saturday loss makes it difficult to impossible, as of today, for them to make it to the CFP. I don’t think any B12 team, including their eventual conference championship, is going to make it without a lot of teams above them losing in the next 3 weekends.
Cinci and ND are wildcards. ND always has a lot of appeal, but they would be a tough argument at 11-1 over a 12-0 Cincinnati team that they lost to. ND’s schedule so very weak.
Things are shaping up for Cinci to grab the 4 seed. They may need a break, however, even if they do run the table. If ND runs the table, the Cinci case is bolstered. The Oklahoma loss helped them more than any other team.
These 13 teams are whittled down to:
Out
5 teams control their own destiny.
- Georgia
- Alabama
- Oregon
- OSU
- MSU
- UM
- Cinci
- ND
I rank them by either likelihood or controlling their own destiny.
Numbers 1-5 control their own destiny. Numbers 6-7 (UM/Cinci) need help.
I think ND needs a lot of help because don’t think they can jump Cinci if both win out.
more below, but with a lot of repetition
| 1 | UGA (62) | 10-0 |
| 2 | ALA | 9-1 |
| 3 | CIN | 10-0 |
| 4 | ORE | 9-1 |
| 5 | OSU | 9-1 |
| 6 | ND | 9-1 |
| 7 | MSU | 9-1 |
| 8 | MICH | 9-1 |
| 9 | OKST | 9-1 |
| 10 | MISS | 8-2 |
| 11 | BAY | 8-2 |
| 12 | OU | 9-1 |
| 13 | WAKE | 9-1 |
If you look at the top 13 in today’s poll, we can lump them as follows:
- SEC: GA, Bama, Ole Miss
- B10: MSU, OSU, UM
- P12: Oregon
- B12: OSU, Baylor, OU
- ACC: Wake Forest
- Independent: ND
- Go5: Cinci
It’s going to be tough for a nonconference champion to make it in to the CFP this year. The only team that people seem to think would have a shot is a 12-1 Georgia team that loses a close SEC championship game to Alabama.
I think Wake Forest (ACC) is out.
I think B12 (OSU, Baylor, OU) is out.
I think Ole Miss is out.
I think the SEC champion, as long as it is Georgia or Alabama, is guaranteed a spot.
The B10 has 3 hopefuls and all have a loss. Amongst the 3 B10 hopefuls, there are 3 big games that will determine if the conference can send a team to the CFP.
- UM-MSU on Oct 30
- MSU-OSU on Nov 20
- UM-OSU on Nov 27
A 12-1 B10 champ, almost certainly, goes.
OSU over Oregon would be a tough argument in the Gaylord Texan if both were 1-loss conference champions and they were competing for the final spot. For this scenario to happen, Cinci or GA/Bama would have to jump into the top 4. Still, there is likely room for both Oregon and OSU.
Oklahoma’s Saturday loss makes it difficult to impossible, as of today, for them to make it to the CFP. I don’t think any B12 team, including their eventual conference championship, is going to make it without a lot of teams above them losing in the next 3 weekends.
Cinci and ND are wildcards. ND always has a lot of appeal, but they would be a tough argument at 11-1 over a 12-0 Cincinnati team that they lost to. ND’s schedule so very weak.
Things are shaping up for Cinci to grab the 4 seed. They may need a break, however, even if they do run the table. If ND runs the table, the Cinci case is bolstered. The Oklahoma loss helped them more than any other team.
These 13 teams are whittled down to:
- SEC champ (If Alabama, then 12-1 GA may sneak in as well)
- 12-1 Oregon
- 12-1 B10 champ
- 13-0 Cinci or 12-1 Georgia (or maybe 10-2 Bama)
Out
- One of either 13-0 Cinci or 12-1 Georgia or 10-2 Bama
- Oklahoma
- Oklahoma State
- Wake Forest
- Notre Dame
- B10 East #2 team
- B10 East #3 team
- Ole Miss
- Baylor
5 teams control their own destiny.
- Georgia
- Alabama
- MSU
- tOSU
- Oregon
