Bluemonster's Fearless 2017 Season Prediction Michigan State Week
So my model has predicted wins and losses accurately but it has under estimated the strength of the defense and over estimated the strength of the offense.
Revised Michigan State Game Prediction = Michigan 29 - Michigan State 14
My Michigan State Revised Prediction
Version #1 Most Comparable Teams - Indication = 18 point win
The most comparable team to Michigan that MSU played is ND (I think it is a good comparison) MSU lost by 20 points
The most comparable team to MSU that Michigan played is Florida. (I think that is an imperfect but reasonable comparison). Michigan won by 16
Version#2 - Opponents Opponents Performance Indication = UM 26 - MSU 15 (11 point win)
How much did MSU and UM outperform their opponents season averages in yards, points 1st downs?
Michigan's offense scored 20% more points than our opponents allowed on average
Mich St.'s offense scored 1% more points than their opponents allowed on average
Michigan's defense allowed opponents to score 48% of their season average
Mich St's defense allowed opponents to score 60% of their season average
Revised Michigan State Game Prediction = Michigan 29 - Michigan State 14
My updated prediction for Michigan State include yardage predictions
Team.........Yds Rushing....Yds Passing....1st Downs.....Points
Michigan.........152..................212...................24.................29
Michigan St......60..................206....................12.................14
Game Outlook
I think that the Michigan rush defense defines the game. They will dominate. Lewerke will get some plays in the screen game and on drag routes underneath. Lewerke will get Michigan defense to overcommit to the pass rush and get a few downfield throws. I think that the run game for Michigan sets up O'Korn for a good day of passing. We own the 4th quarter of course.
The only way to lose this game is poor special teams and turnovers.
So my model has predicted wins and losses accurately but it has under estimated the strength of the defense and over estimated the strength of the offense.
Revised Michigan State Game Prediction = Michigan 29 - Michigan State 14
My Michigan State Revised Prediction
Version #1 Most Comparable Teams - Indication = 18 point win
The most comparable team to Michigan that MSU played is ND (I think it is a good comparison) MSU lost by 20 points
The most comparable team to MSU that Michigan played is Florida. (I think that is an imperfect but reasonable comparison). Michigan won by 16
Version#2 - Opponents Opponents Performance Indication = UM 26 - MSU 15 (11 point win)
How much did MSU and UM outperform their opponents season averages in yards, points 1st downs?
Michigan's offense scored 20% more points than our opponents allowed on average
Mich St.'s offense scored 1% more points than their opponents allowed on average
Michigan's defense allowed opponents to score 48% of their season average
Mich St's defense allowed opponents to score 60% of their season average
Revised Michigan State Game Prediction = Michigan 29 - Michigan State 14
My updated prediction for Michigan State include yardage predictions
Team.........Yds Rushing....Yds Passing....1st Downs.....Points
Michigan.........152..................212...................24.................29
Michigan St......60..................206....................12.................14
Game Outlook
I think that the Michigan rush defense defines the game. They will dominate. Lewerke will get some plays in the screen game and on drag routes underneath. Lewerke will get Michigan defense to overcommit to the pass rush and get a few downfield throws. I think that the run game for Michigan sets up O'Korn for a good day of passing. We own the 4th quarter of course.
The only way to lose this game is poor special teams and turnovers.
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