Given that the Big Ten is going to base the championship on winning percentage, Illinois losing last night put us in the driver's seat and then some.
If we go 3-2, we are guaranteed to finish in the top spot. At 14-3 we'd be at .823 winning percentage. Illinois could go unbeaten but at 16-4 they'd only be at .800. The same is true of OSU. The best they can go is .750 at this point.
If we go 2-3 and finish at 13-4, we'd be at .764 and Illinois would need to go unbeaten to finish ahead of us. If they go 3-1, the best they can finish is 15-5 and .750.
While our schedule is challenging for sure, Illinois' schedule is a gauntlet - @Wisconsin, @Michigan, @OSU.
KenPom's winning probabilities give us a 91% chance of going at least 2-3 and they give Illinois only a 7% chance of going 4-0.
This isn't over, but it could be as early as Monday if we beat both Iowa and Indiana and Illinois loses at Wisconsin this weekend.
If we go 3-2, we are guaranteed to finish in the top spot. At 14-3 we'd be at .823 winning percentage. Illinois could go unbeaten but at 16-4 they'd only be at .800. The same is true of OSU. The best they can go is .750 at this point.
If we go 2-3 and finish at 13-4, we'd be at .764 and Illinois would need to go unbeaten to finish ahead of us. If they go 3-1, the best they can finish is 15-5 and .750.
While our schedule is challenging for sure, Illinois' schedule is a gauntlet - @Wisconsin, @Michigan, @OSU.
KenPom's winning probabilities give us a 91% chance of going at least 2-3 and they give Illinois only a 7% chance of going 4-0.
This isn't over, but it could be as early as Monday if we beat both Iowa and Indiana and Illinois loses at Wisconsin this weekend.
