We finally have some clarity as to rosters for the upcoming season. A few question marks remain, the chief of which is whether Illinois will be able to keep Kofi Cockburn and/or land Marquette transfer stretch post Dawson Garcia, but in general, we can make some evaluations of how the off season has gone and how the upcoming season will unfold.
Illinois--Remember four months ago when Illinois was a surefire number 1 seed, a trendy pick to win it all, and on the verge of competing in, and winning, the Big Ten Tournament? Things haven't gone so well since then. Loyola happened in the round of 32, of course, but the Illini still looked like they had turned the corner, program wise. Then Ayo left for the pros (expected), Adam Miller, who started every game last year, left for LSU because classmate Andre Curbelo had surpassed him (the departure was unexpected), Kofi declared for the draft (expected), but then put himself into the portal and may go elsewhere in college (unexpected), Giogi Benenzhvilli, Kofi's replacement, left to play in Europe (unexpected), and, stunningly, all three assistants left (two for Kentucky and one for Gonzaga). Illinois did get some good news--super seniors Trent Frazier and Da'Monte Williams returned, and Brad Underwood added some decent recruits and a few potentially good transfers in Utah shooter Alfonzo Plummer and Florida post Omar Payne, a former top 50 recruit whose principal claim to fame thus far was sucker punching a Tennessee player and getting himself thrown out of the SEC tournament. Still though, Illinois NEEDS Kofi or Garcia or both--if not, the Illini's lack of size and rim protection will take away from a strong and deep guard corps, and leave the Illini as a good team, but not more.
Indiana--At the same time Illinois seemed on top of the world, Indiana's program seemed to be falling off of it. Archie Miller was fired (not a minus IMO), and IU went through the usual shoot for the moon, get nobody list before settling for alum Mike Woodson, a 63 year old with plenty of head coaching experience, but no college experience in over four decades. Then, Indiana's top six players entered the transfer portal. Things were looking really bleak...and then Woodson pulled a rabbit out of his hat, convincing most of his key players to return, including All Big Ten player Trace Jackson-Davis, adding key transfers Xavier Johnson, a point guard from Pitt and Northwestern shooter Miller Kopp, and flipping top 50 wing Tamar Bates from Texas. Indiana has remaining issues--its perimeter guys are somewhat suspect, either as players or, in the case of Johnson, chemistry concerns (it's concerning when the best player on a team leaves "by mutual agreement" just a few weeks before the end of the season), and there is little size aside from Jackson-Davis. Still, it could have been so much worse.
Iowa--The Hawkeyes are another Big Ten program which has had a rough off-season. Luka Garza is finally gone; so too, are extremely underrated sharpshooter Joe Weiskamp, who showed out in pro workouts and will stay in the draft (and get drafted) three point ace Joe Fredrick, who was unexpectedly plucked away by Kentucky, and others. This leaves Fran McCaffrey with Jordan Bohannon, back for seemingly his twenty-seventh season in Iowa City (Bohannon has had an eventful off-season after getting much the worse of a bar fight), promising rising sophomore wing Keegan Murray, multiple McCaffrey sons, and a whole bunch of question marks. Iowa doesn't rate to be much better defensively...and the Hawks won't have the firepower they've recently showed.
Maryland--Last year, the Terps had no size, no point guard, and a plethora of wings. The summer has completely transformed the roster. Maryland now has a quality starting center in Georgetown transfer Qudus Wahid, and a starting point guard in Rhode Island transfer Fatts Russell, who is lightening quick but not much of a shooter inside or outside the arc. However, Aaron Wiggins' decision to stay in the draft and Darryl Morsell's super senior transfer to Marquette, leaves Maryland very thin at the wing position. Danta Scott, Eric Ayala, and Hakim Hart are all very good Big Ten wings, but there are major depth question marks at all five positions. Maryland needs some of its lesser known and regarded players to step up, or a very good starting unit will wear down.
Michigan--The return of Hunter Dickinson and super senior Eli Brooks, the addition of combo guard DeVonte' Jones, and the matriculation of the nation's top recruiting class puts the Wolverines at the top of the conference heap, talent wise. There may/will be some growing pains for the freshmen and those underclassmen who didn't get much run last year, and for the staff, which is likely going to have to adjust to a less ball dominant point guard, less shooters spacing the floor, and the absence of gumby-like Franz Wagner on defense. The pre-season schedule is very tough, which may turn some of those growing pains into losses. Still, by season's end, barring unusual injury issues, it is hard to see how this team isn't a conference and national contender.
Michigan State--Tom Izzo went all out to solve last year's biggest issue--bad guard play--by adding a highly coveted transfer in Northeastern's Tyson Walker and star freshmen wing Max Christie, and combo guard Jaden Akins, and by watching/encouraging Foster Loyer to leave so that there was no push to play him. Adding Christie and another good freshman, Pierre Brooks to holdover Malik Hall and Gabe Brown (last seen getting into it with Iz at halftime of the UCLA game) may/will help to allieviate the gaping hole caused by Aaron Henry's departure to the NBA--Henry carried last year's team in its stretch run to the tournament. What remains unsolved though is inside play--MSU has lots of bodies to play the 4 and 5, but all have been inconsistent at best. MSU will be better: how much better is likely to depend on stretch big Joey Hauser, who came in from Marquette heralded as an offensive force who might struggle on the defensive end, and suffered through a season where his offense didn't stick out, and his defense did...the wrong way. Hauser, if he plays well, will create mismatches on the offensive end and give the Spartans a chance to be a very good, if defensively limited, team. If he doesn't...
Minnesota--The Gophers are going to be bad this year. Really, really bad--Nebraska from two years ago bad. No quality players remain, and the transfers and incoming freshman cobbled together by inexperienced new coach Ben Johnson are underwhelming. Maybe Johnson, who was formerly an assistant at Minnespta under Richard Pitino, and more recently, an assistant at Xavier after Chris Mack left, will turn out to be the real deal. We're not going to find out this season though--winning two or three games in conference would be a terrific achievement, even in a Big Ten which will be less deep and talented than last year.
Nebraska--Nebraska will be better. This is not a high bar, given the Huskers last place Big Ten finishes in each of the last two seasons, but things are beginning to look up a bit for Fred Hoiberg's program. Five-star wing recruit Bryce McGowans joins his brother Trey, other returnees such as Lat Mayen (a stretch big), Kobe Webster (a point guard) and forward Derrick Walker, and Japanese import Keisei Tominaga to finally give Hoiberg some stability and talent. While this isn't an upper division team by any means, it appears competant, and seemingly devoid of the revolving door of bad kids/selfish players who have marked Hoiberg's first two seasons in Lincoln. Hoiberg successfully built through transfers at Iowa State, and the portal affords him that opportunity again, but lack of continuity only works when you're cycling through great players, not mediocre ones. To be fair, Hoiberg arrived at Nebraska to literally one returning player, and has had to scramble just to fill rosters for the last two years. We'll see if a foundation starts being laid with this group.
Northwestern--Miller Kopp's transfer to Indiana pretty much sums up Northwestern's post-NCAA experience under Chris Collins. Kids leave programs after one, two and four seasons for various reason, but seldom after three seasons (unless they've already graduated and can be grad transfers), especially when they have few, if any, pro prospects and they're serious students on the verge of getting a degree from a top 20 University. Northwestern has had an unusual number of those in recent times. Folks I know who are pretty close to the program have told me that Collins eventually wears guys down with relentless negativity, which is difficult to take when the results aren't there. The departure of Kopp (who did struggle mightily in Big Ten play last year after a promising first two and a half seasons) and super senior Anthony Gaines leaves Northwestern with a lot of guards and posts and no proven, or even highly regarded, wings in the program. In a league with a lot of such players, it could be a struggle one again for the Cats.
Ohio State--Be happy Wolverine fans, the Duane Washington era is over. Former in-state product Washington torched Michigan (and, to be fair, some others) repeatedly over a three year career before opting to stay in the NBA draft after impressive combine showings. E.J. Liddell, who will be a candidate for Big Ten Player of the Year returns, as do a plethora of good players and shooters; that said, there is no apparent all-conference quality guy (any of the first three teams) other than Liddell, or any perimeter player who can efficiently create shots for himself or others. The front court is strong, and to be clear, Chris Holtman worked wonders with this type of team in 2018, so OSU will be good and potentially very good. There does seem to be a ceiling for the Buckeyes unless one of the young guards breaks out.
Penn State--Like Indiana, Penn State entered the off-season with no coach and everyone in the portal, before new coach Micah Shrewsberry convinced many of those contemplating leaving to come back. The difference though is that Shrewsberry did not have an all-league guy in Trayce Jackson-Davis to convince, nor did he have the program tradition to grab a Tamar Bates late in the recruiting game. Shrewsberry did get a potentially nice grad transfer in Sienna guard Jalen Pickett, and seems to be headed in the right direction in terms of building a program, but this year's team has starters who are pretty good, not great, and virtually no depth. While experience abounds, this rates to be a pretty long season in Happy Valley.
Purdue--A trendy pick by some to win the conference, Matt Painter returns everyone from last year's year ahead of schedule team plus two promising recruits. Trevion Williams and 7-4 Zach Edey are an absolute load at the 5 position, and rising soph wing Jaden Ivey is a likely breakout star/potential first rounder at the end of the year who is currently tearing it up in the U19s. After that, Purdue has role players. They also have the easiest in-conference schedule of any contender for the second year in a row. If Ivey breaks out as expected, this is a top 10 team, albeit one where both Ivey and the 5s are going to have to step up in big games to win them.
Rutgers--As in most years, Rutgers is the most difficult team in the conference on which to get a handle. Rutgers took some body blows in terms of transfers--Jacob Young, Myles Johnson, and Montez Mathis--and Geo Baker and Ron Harper, Jr. are still deciding whether to return or turn pro, but in the end, whomever plays, Rutgers is a heavy bet to defend and rebound aggressively and shoot very badly. Obviously, Harper and/or Baker would significantly raise the floor, but either way, Rutgers will cause some headaches for teams while being unlikely to play at the level exhibited in the last two seasons.
Wisconsin--Well, the oldest class in recent Big Ten memory is finally almost all gone, albeit not without the revelation of extensive fracture between the seniors and Greg Gard by the Wisconsin State Journal. The only senior left is Brad Davison who views the word fracture in a wholly different sense. After Davison, rising soph wing Jonathan Davis is very promising, and...there are other guys. Somehow, Wisconsin has always developed players out of nowhere, so it is often a fool's errand to predict doom and gloom for the Badgers; that said, an upper half of the conference Wisconsin would be a true testament to Gard. Expect to see Wisconsin play even slower than usual because of a lack of firepower. Perhaps Cincinnati transfer Chris Vogt and/or rising sophs Ben Carlson and Steven Crowl can provide quality play at the 5, and perhaps former Michigan prep Lorne Bowman can man the point, but there are a lot of perhapses here. And Gard, while a decent/good coach, is not Bo Ryan.
Illinois--Remember four months ago when Illinois was a surefire number 1 seed, a trendy pick to win it all, and on the verge of competing in, and winning, the Big Ten Tournament? Things haven't gone so well since then. Loyola happened in the round of 32, of course, but the Illini still looked like they had turned the corner, program wise. Then Ayo left for the pros (expected), Adam Miller, who started every game last year, left for LSU because classmate Andre Curbelo had surpassed him (the departure was unexpected), Kofi declared for the draft (expected), but then put himself into the portal and may go elsewhere in college (unexpected), Giogi Benenzhvilli, Kofi's replacement, left to play in Europe (unexpected), and, stunningly, all three assistants left (two for Kentucky and one for Gonzaga). Illinois did get some good news--super seniors Trent Frazier and Da'Monte Williams returned, and Brad Underwood added some decent recruits and a few potentially good transfers in Utah shooter Alfonzo Plummer and Florida post Omar Payne, a former top 50 recruit whose principal claim to fame thus far was sucker punching a Tennessee player and getting himself thrown out of the SEC tournament. Still though, Illinois NEEDS Kofi or Garcia or both--if not, the Illini's lack of size and rim protection will take away from a strong and deep guard corps, and leave the Illini as a good team, but not more.
Indiana--At the same time Illinois seemed on top of the world, Indiana's program seemed to be falling off of it. Archie Miller was fired (not a minus IMO), and IU went through the usual shoot for the moon, get nobody list before settling for alum Mike Woodson, a 63 year old with plenty of head coaching experience, but no college experience in over four decades. Then, Indiana's top six players entered the transfer portal. Things were looking really bleak...and then Woodson pulled a rabbit out of his hat, convincing most of his key players to return, including All Big Ten player Trace Jackson-Davis, adding key transfers Xavier Johnson, a point guard from Pitt and Northwestern shooter Miller Kopp, and flipping top 50 wing Tamar Bates from Texas. Indiana has remaining issues--its perimeter guys are somewhat suspect, either as players or, in the case of Johnson, chemistry concerns (it's concerning when the best player on a team leaves "by mutual agreement" just a few weeks before the end of the season), and there is little size aside from Jackson-Davis. Still, it could have been so much worse.
Iowa--The Hawkeyes are another Big Ten program which has had a rough off-season. Luka Garza is finally gone; so too, are extremely underrated sharpshooter Joe Weiskamp, who showed out in pro workouts and will stay in the draft (and get drafted) three point ace Joe Fredrick, who was unexpectedly plucked away by Kentucky, and others. This leaves Fran McCaffrey with Jordan Bohannon, back for seemingly his twenty-seventh season in Iowa City (Bohannon has had an eventful off-season after getting much the worse of a bar fight), promising rising sophomore wing Keegan Murray, multiple McCaffrey sons, and a whole bunch of question marks. Iowa doesn't rate to be much better defensively...and the Hawks won't have the firepower they've recently showed.
Maryland--Last year, the Terps had no size, no point guard, and a plethora of wings. The summer has completely transformed the roster. Maryland now has a quality starting center in Georgetown transfer Qudus Wahid, and a starting point guard in Rhode Island transfer Fatts Russell, who is lightening quick but not much of a shooter inside or outside the arc. However, Aaron Wiggins' decision to stay in the draft and Darryl Morsell's super senior transfer to Marquette, leaves Maryland very thin at the wing position. Danta Scott, Eric Ayala, and Hakim Hart are all very good Big Ten wings, but there are major depth question marks at all five positions. Maryland needs some of its lesser known and regarded players to step up, or a very good starting unit will wear down.
Michigan--The return of Hunter Dickinson and super senior Eli Brooks, the addition of combo guard DeVonte' Jones, and the matriculation of the nation's top recruiting class puts the Wolverines at the top of the conference heap, talent wise. There may/will be some growing pains for the freshmen and those underclassmen who didn't get much run last year, and for the staff, which is likely going to have to adjust to a less ball dominant point guard, less shooters spacing the floor, and the absence of gumby-like Franz Wagner on defense. The pre-season schedule is very tough, which may turn some of those growing pains into losses. Still, by season's end, barring unusual injury issues, it is hard to see how this team isn't a conference and national contender.
Michigan State--Tom Izzo went all out to solve last year's biggest issue--bad guard play--by adding a highly coveted transfer in Northeastern's Tyson Walker and star freshmen wing Max Christie, and combo guard Jaden Akins, and by watching/encouraging Foster Loyer to leave so that there was no push to play him. Adding Christie and another good freshman, Pierre Brooks to holdover Malik Hall and Gabe Brown (last seen getting into it with Iz at halftime of the UCLA game) may/will help to allieviate the gaping hole caused by Aaron Henry's departure to the NBA--Henry carried last year's team in its stretch run to the tournament. What remains unsolved though is inside play--MSU has lots of bodies to play the 4 and 5, but all have been inconsistent at best. MSU will be better: how much better is likely to depend on stretch big Joey Hauser, who came in from Marquette heralded as an offensive force who might struggle on the defensive end, and suffered through a season where his offense didn't stick out, and his defense did...the wrong way. Hauser, if he plays well, will create mismatches on the offensive end and give the Spartans a chance to be a very good, if defensively limited, team. If he doesn't...
Minnesota--The Gophers are going to be bad this year. Really, really bad--Nebraska from two years ago bad. No quality players remain, and the transfers and incoming freshman cobbled together by inexperienced new coach Ben Johnson are underwhelming. Maybe Johnson, who was formerly an assistant at Minnespta under Richard Pitino, and more recently, an assistant at Xavier after Chris Mack left, will turn out to be the real deal. We're not going to find out this season though--winning two or three games in conference would be a terrific achievement, even in a Big Ten which will be less deep and talented than last year.
Nebraska--Nebraska will be better. This is not a high bar, given the Huskers last place Big Ten finishes in each of the last two seasons, but things are beginning to look up a bit for Fred Hoiberg's program. Five-star wing recruit Bryce McGowans joins his brother Trey, other returnees such as Lat Mayen (a stretch big), Kobe Webster (a point guard) and forward Derrick Walker, and Japanese import Keisei Tominaga to finally give Hoiberg some stability and talent. While this isn't an upper division team by any means, it appears competant, and seemingly devoid of the revolving door of bad kids/selfish players who have marked Hoiberg's first two seasons in Lincoln. Hoiberg successfully built through transfers at Iowa State, and the portal affords him that opportunity again, but lack of continuity only works when you're cycling through great players, not mediocre ones. To be fair, Hoiberg arrived at Nebraska to literally one returning player, and has had to scramble just to fill rosters for the last two years. We'll see if a foundation starts being laid with this group.
Northwestern--Miller Kopp's transfer to Indiana pretty much sums up Northwestern's post-NCAA experience under Chris Collins. Kids leave programs after one, two and four seasons for various reason, but seldom after three seasons (unless they've already graduated and can be grad transfers), especially when they have few, if any, pro prospects and they're serious students on the verge of getting a degree from a top 20 University. Northwestern has had an unusual number of those in recent times. Folks I know who are pretty close to the program have told me that Collins eventually wears guys down with relentless negativity, which is difficult to take when the results aren't there. The departure of Kopp (who did struggle mightily in Big Ten play last year after a promising first two and a half seasons) and super senior Anthony Gaines leaves Northwestern with a lot of guards and posts and no proven, or even highly regarded, wings in the program. In a league with a lot of such players, it could be a struggle one again for the Cats.
Ohio State--Be happy Wolverine fans, the Duane Washington era is over. Former in-state product Washington torched Michigan (and, to be fair, some others) repeatedly over a three year career before opting to stay in the NBA draft after impressive combine showings. E.J. Liddell, who will be a candidate for Big Ten Player of the Year returns, as do a plethora of good players and shooters; that said, there is no apparent all-conference quality guy (any of the first three teams) other than Liddell, or any perimeter player who can efficiently create shots for himself or others. The front court is strong, and to be clear, Chris Holtman worked wonders with this type of team in 2018, so OSU will be good and potentially very good. There does seem to be a ceiling for the Buckeyes unless one of the young guards breaks out.
Penn State--Like Indiana, Penn State entered the off-season with no coach and everyone in the portal, before new coach Micah Shrewsberry convinced many of those contemplating leaving to come back. The difference though is that Shrewsberry did not have an all-league guy in Trayce Jackson-Davis to convince, nor did he have the program tradition to grab a Tamar Bates late in the recruiting game. Shrewsberry did get a potentially nice grad transfer in Sienna guard Jalen Pickett, and seems to be headed in the right direction in terms of building a program, but this year's team has starters who are pretty good, not great, and virtually no depth. While experience abounds, this rates to be a pretty long season in Happy Valley.
Purdue--A trendy pick by some to win the conference, Matt Painter returns everyone from last year's year ahead of schedule team plus two promising recruits. Trevion Williams and 7-4 Zach Edey are an absolute load at the 5 position, and rising soph wing Jaden Ivey is a likely breakout star/potential first rounder at the end of the year who is currently tearing it up in the U19s. After that, Purdue has role players. They also have the easiest in-conference schedule of any contender for the second year in a row. If Ivey breaks out as expected, this is a top 10 team, albeit one where both Ivey and the 5s are going to have to step up in big games to win them.
Rutgers--As in most years, Rutgers is the most difficult team in the conference on which to get a handle. Rutgers took some body blows in terms of transfers--Jacob Young, Myles Johnson, and Montez Mathis--and Geo Baker and Ron Harper, Jr. are still deciding whether to return or turn pro, but in the end, whomever plays, Rutgers is a heavy bet to defend and rebound aggressively and shoot very badly. Obviously, Harper and/or Baker would significantly raise the floor, but either way, Rutgers will cause some headaches for teams while being unlikely to play at the level exhibited in the last two seasons.
Wisconsin--Well, the oldest class in recent Big Ten memory is finally almost all gone, albeit not without the revelation of extensive fracture between the seniors and Greg Gard by the Wisconsin State Journal. The only senior left is Brad Davison who views the word fracture in a wholly different sense. After Davison, rising soph wing Jonathan Davis is very promising, and...there are other guys. Somehow, Wisconsin has always developed players out of nowhere, so it is often a fool's errand to predict doom and gloom for the Badgers; that said, an upper half of the conference Wisconsin would be a true testament to Gard. Expect to see Wisconsin play even slower than usual because of a lack of firepower. Perhaps Cincinnati transfer Chris Vogt and/or rising sophs Ben Carlson and Steven Crowl can provide quality play at the 5, and perhaps former Michigan prep Lorne Bowman can man the point, but there are a lot of perhapses here. And Gard, while a decent/good coach, is not Bo Ryan.
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