Thought I'd jot down some lunchtime thoughts on the Big Ten and how it might finish up and what teams need to do in order to improve seeding and/or make the tournament. One thing I think is that the conference tournaments are going to mean less this year than they usually do. So while a win or a loss might decide whether a team makes the field, I don't think seeding will factor in that much. With that said, here's how I see things with just over a week to go in the regular season. The number after each team is their odds of making the tournament in my opinion.
- Michigan - 100% - Absolutely in the driver's seat. We might even lock up a #1 seed with just one more win at this point. And a win vs Indiana and an Illinois loss to Wisconsin wraps up the regular season crown. The only way we lose out on that #1 seed is probably a collapse down the stretch coupled with Illinois winning out and beating OSU in the Big Ten Tournament Final. (Or maybe OSU winning it over Illinois). The more likely possibility at this point is jumping Baylor and being the #2 overall seed.
- Ohio State - 100% - A tough loss last night but OSU still has an inside track for the last #1 seed. They only have Iowa and Illinos left, both at home. Win both and the final #1 seed is theirs. Illinois is still the greatest threat to take the #1 seed fromthem.
- Illinois - 100% - The loss of Dosunmu hurts the Illini at a time when they really need him to finish the season strong. But they do have opportunities in front of them to make a run. It is a brutal stretch but if they could win @Wisconsin, @Michigan and @OSU to close the season, they could possibly take a #1 seed away from the Buckeyes. They are strongly on that #2 line though and probably only need one more regular season win to lock that in.
- Iowa - 100% - The Hawkeyes finish @OSU and then host Nebraska and Wisconsin. I think right now they've probably slipped to a 3 seed, but a 2-1 finish might get them back on the 2 line. A 3-0 finish plus a strong Big Ten Tourney performance certainly would.
- Wisconsin - 100% - The Badgers are firmly in the field but face a tough final three games: Illinois, @Purdue, @Iowa. I could see them winning all three or losing all three. The most likely outcome is probably 1-2 and hanging around that 6 seed area.
- Purdue - 100% -To be honest I was suprised to see how strong Purdue is on the seeding matrix. Most have them around a 6 seed just behind Wisconsin. They finish @PSU, Wisconsin, @IU. Like Wisconsin, they seem to be in the field but probably not moving up too much. At best a 3-0 finish vaults them over Wisconsin and maybe into a 5 seed.
- Rutgers - 90% - I wouldn't say the Scarlet Knights are a lock to make the tournament, but they are pretty comfortable right now. They are a projected 8 seed, and finish @Nebraska and @Minnesota. If they beat the Cornhuskers on Monday, they'll solidify the bid. Lose both and a Big Ten Tourney game and another Big Ten team might steal their bid. I can't see them jumping up in seeding though unless they make a Big Ten Tourney run.
- Maryland - 80% - The Terps are currently a projected 10 seed and though they aren't "on the bubble" per se, they do have some work to do. They finish MSU, @NW, PSU and like Rutgers probably solidify the bid with one more win, especially if it is MSU. Win all three and they could get themselves into an 8/9 seed area. Lose all three and they could sweat out Selection Sunday.
- Indiana - 33% - The definition of a bubble team, Indiana has to right the ship and quickly in order to stay in the field, but it won't be easy. They host Michigan on 2 days rest and it would be a HUGE win for their chances to make the tournament. Then they travel to MSU and Purdue. At this point you'd expect they'd lose all three and be done, but perhaps they can rally. The game @MSU will be huge for them.
- Minnesota - 50% - Like the Hoosiers, Minnesota is trending in the wrong direction after losing their last 4, including a horrible loss to Northwestern last night. They are now outside the field and need to flip things around to get back in. The good news is that the last three games are absolutely winnable - @Nebraska, @PSU, Rutgers. Win all three and a Big Ten Tourney game and they likely sneak back into the field.
- Michigan State - 51% - The Spartans are coming on strong because as everyone knows, this is Tom Izzo's time to shine. If you didn't know, EVERY talking head will happily remind you. Back to back wins over OSU and Illinois have them on the bubble again, but they have to keep the momentum. The Spartans need at least 2 more wins and maybe 3 to get into the field of 68. @Maryland, Indiana, and then two games against Michigan remain. Sunday @Maryland is a huge game for them to keep the momentum and get them inside the bubble. A loss means that Indiana becomes a "must win" because they aren't going to sweep us. MSU is at 51% because if they are close, we all know the committee is giving Mr. March (but never Mr. April) the benefit of the doubt.
