With most of the premier non-conference games concluded, and 2 conference games in the books, the Big Ten hoops picture is slowly taking shape. Thus far, the conference has been very strong--more out-of-conference wins over Kenpom top 50 teams than any other conference, 10 teams in the top 50 of the most recent NCAA NET rankings, including 6 of the top 20 and the number one team in Michigan (boy it feels good to say that), and 10 tournament teams in the latest Bracketology (the Big Ten has never had more than 7 in the tournament). What follows is a review of how each team (other than Michigan, which has been covered extensively here and elsewhere) has progressed to date:
Illinois--For the most part, the Illini have been a hot mess. There is some real talent in the backcourt with Trent Frazier, freshman Ayo Desemnu, and JUCO Andres Felix, but Brad Underwood's team lacks size, experience and quality depth, and tends to wear down as games go along. In addition, Illinois plays a frenetic style, especially on defense (akin to South Carolina's style, which is no surprise, since Underwood was an assistant for Frank Martin), which exacerbates Illinois' weaknesses, as it leads to lots of fouls (particularly for the only serviceable big, freshman Giorgi Beshanishvilli) and rotation issues once teams solve the pressure and stop turning it over (Illinois is really bad at 2 point % and defensive rebounding, largely for this very reason). The Illini have lots of shooters, and that plus the funky defensive style is going to get some teams in conference play, but this is a rebuilding year. And, since Illinois signed no one in the early signing period (though they have an oral commitment from a top 150 big), the rebuild may take a while.
Indiana--Freshman Romeo langford is the real deal. Senior big Juwan Morgan is an all-conference level player. Indiana has pieces around them. Right now, this is a team which is being held back by erratic point guard play (and that's being nice), and a lack of experience and role definition (which has been hampered by early season injuries). Indiana turns it over a lot, takes some really bad shots (Langford, for as good as he is, currently has a 3 point % of 23.5%), and struggles in guarding the post and in defensive rotations. All that said, Indiana is a team which has a higher ceiling than many in the conference, and looks to be a comfortable tournament team.
Iowa--The good news is that Iowa is better defensively than last year. The bad news is that this is a really low bar, since the Hawkeyes were worse defensively last year than any power conference team I have watched in at least the last decade. Iowa has been very good to date in defending the 3 point shot. This is not to say that Iowa is good defensively--they're not, and as Michigan State showed, they are particularly susceptible to teams with great ball movement, as they are very slow to react (MSU had 29 assists on 30 made baskets, which is absurd)--but the improvement makes it possible for Fran McCaffrey's group to outscore some teams rather than simply get beat in high scoring affairs. make no mistake--Iowa can score from all over the floor, and that's even with sharpshooter Jason Bohannon shooting under 30% from 3 point range on the year. What is scary about defending Iowa is that they have two bigs (Tyler Cook and Luka Garza) who can score in bunches, and who can play together because of Garza's inside/outside game. What is less scary is that Iowa has no perimeter guys who are big time threats to create their own shot off the dribble. If you can limit the bigs, you're going to beat Iowa the vast majority of the time. If you can't, they're going to beat some teams. To me, Iowa is a bubble team.
Maryland--The most athletic team in the conference and it's not close. Bruno Fernando and freshman Jalen Smith are extremely athletic bigs, who block shots, pound the offensive glass, and have some skills (especially Fernando) away from the basket. Maryland also has athletic shooters and an experienced, talented point guard in Anthony Cowan. The Terps are hampered by very loose ball security, and a half court offense which, if you stop it early, devolves into Cowan pounding the dribble for about 10 seconds and then either trying to penetrate in the last few seconds of the shot clock or tossing up a difficult, contested 25 footer (which he sometimes makes, though his percentage this year is poor), Put another way, if you keep Maryland out of transition, you can defend them. Defensively, despite being a team with 5 freshman and 2 sops in their playing rotation, Maryland is good--Cowan is a plus on ball defender, as is Darryle Morsell, and the bigs are rim protectors, though they re foul prone. The Terms are going to be inconsistent but scary on an individual game basis. Likely NCAA team.
Michigan State--The Spartans are the best offensive team in the league--Cassius Winston, Josh Langford (who has been much better and more aggressive this year), and Nick Ward are all plus or plus plus offensive players, and there are solid role players alongside. MSU still turns the ball over way too much, but they also have have very high assist numbers, so the ratio isn't bad. The other issue offensively is lack of shot creators, especially at the basket--on off shooting days and/or days when Ward gets in foul trouble and takes away an inside threat, there is less option B than there has been in the past. Defensively, MSU is solid, but not great by any means--because of their lack of perimeter athleticism and rim protection, they contain more than they have, and thus don't force turnovers (bottom 20 nationally in this category, per Bart Torvik), and yet they still foul a lot. They do contest shots though. Overall, a very good team, albeit with perhaps less ceiling than some of Tom Izzo's better squads.
Minnesota--The Gophers can't shoot. They are long and athletic, have some guys who can go off on the offensive side of the floor (notably Amir Coffey), pound the offensive glass, and get to the line A LOT. If they have to beat you from the perimeter though, that's very unlikely to happen (they were 0 for the game from 3 against OSU). Defensively, Minnesota is nothing special one way or the other in any area. And there's Little Ricky Pitino on the sidelines. From my vantage point, a bubble out team, but one which will have its moments, particularly at home, if/when Coffey can take over offensively.
Nebraska--This has to be the year for Tim Miles--the Huskers start 3 seniors and a junior who will likely at least test the NBA waters (Isaiah Roby), and Miles' job is on the line. So far, except for a disturbing second half defensive meltdown in Minneapolis, Nebraska is playing well, and most importantly, senior point guard Glynn Watson, who really struggled last year, has been very, very good to date. The Huskers have also been excellent defensively, ranking top 10 nationally in effective field goal percentage, though their opponents continuing to shoot under 29% from 3 is probably unsustainable. Nebraska needs to show that it can win on the road, though they did have a nice win at Clemson in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. If they do that even a bit, this is an experienced and scary team with athleticism and talent.
Northwestern--The 'Cats would be a good/very good team if they had a point guard--they're solid elsewhere, and Derrick Pardon and Vic Law are all Big ten caliber players. Alas, they do not have anyone even resembling a point guard, which makes them very susceptible to teams which can pressure them, and/or have quickness on the perimeter. Currently, Northwestern is playing 4 wings and a post, which could cause some other teams problems--however, one of the wings (Anthony Gaines) can't shoot, another (Ryan Taylor, a grad transfer from Evansville) always shoots (if you foul him, it's likely in the act of shooting, see, e.g., Sean Higgins), and has not been as successful as he needs to be, and a third (Miller Kopp) makes a lot of freshman mistakes. All that said, their length makes them good defensively, and they'll win some slugfests, as they did against us. Chris Collins is recruiting at a high level for Northwestern, and his team will get back to the tournament--it's just not likely to be this year.
Ohio State--Chris Holtmann can coach. This is the second straight year that the Buckeyes have lost A LOT, been consigned to the lower/middle of the Big Ten pre-season, and exceeded expectations, at least to date. Kaleb Wesson is a load inside, and OSU has shooters around him and a solid point guard in senior C.J. Jackson, but the Buckeyes calling card is on defense, where they rank top 20 in effective field goal percentage against, including a ridiculous (and almost surely unsustainable) 27% opposing field goal mark from 3. OSU has 2 impressive road wins--at Cincinnati and at Creighton--in the non-conference. This looks like a high floor, relatively low ceiling team to me, which will play in the tournament.
Penn State--This may be it for Pat Chambers. PSU can't shoot, turns the ball over with regularity, and stands out in no way on the offensive end. Lamar Stens is good, but he's a number 2 option forced to play as a primary, freshman Rasir Bolton shows promise from the perimeter, albeit he has been really hot and really cold from game to game, and the rest are just guys right now. Defensively, PSU is very good, but not good enough to consistently overcome an offense well outside the top 100 nationally. PSU has a very good win against Virginia Tech, and some opportunities coming up (neutral court games this month with NC State and Alabama), but losses to DePaul and Bradley, and an 0-2 Big Ten start puts them behind the 8-ball. This would be no tournament appearances in 8 years if PSU doesn't get hot.
Purdue--Carsen Edwards is a scoring machine. Ryan Cline can shoot, and freshman Aaron Wheeler shows signs of being a bucket maker. When, however, you are as heavily reliant on a single player as Purdue is on Edwards (who has an off the chart usage rate of 37.4%), you're susceptible to going under when he doesn't play well, and can struggle even when he does unless the others chip in, as was shown in Sunday's loss at Texas when Edwards went for 40, but Cline was 1-9 from 3. Purdue plays 2 guys extensively (Matt Haarms and Nojel Eastern) who don't even look to shoot or to get to the rim--it's hard to run an offense 3 on 5, especially when you're a team which, like Purdue, has to hoist about 50% of its shots from beyond the arc. And even when the offense works, it isn't Purdue's biggest problem--a leaky defense, in part caused by lack of overall athleticism, and in part caused by an exhausted Edwards, is that. Purdue is going to beat some teams--Edwards is that good, and when the shooters get hot, the Boilers can be a load. I think they're a bubble team at this point, unless freshman like Eric Hunter, who has struggled mightily to date, and Wheeler, who has shown some recent signs, are able to play more and inject some options and athleticism into the Boilers' lineup.
Rutgers--Rutgers is better. Losing Corey Sanders, as talented as he was, seems to have been addition by subtraction, as the offense is no longer get out of Corey's way while he dominates the ball, does a few things spectacularly, and is generally inefficient. However, despite the fact that soph Geo Baker is legitimately good, and transfer Peter Kiss (that's not a typo) has some talent, Rugers is really bad (again) on the offensive end. Under Steve Pickell, Rutgers has always been good defensively, pounded the offensive glass, and looked to win low scoring games. This team is his best yet on the defensive end, and beat Miami at Miami for that reason. The defense, though, will not win a ton of games in conference, though it will win some.
Wisconsin--Ethan Happ is back for his 27th year as a badger, surrounded by a plethora of shooters. D'Mitrik Trice, brother of former MSU guard Travis Trice, has brought otherworldly 3 point shooting (55.4%) to the table, as well as the otherworldly sounds his mother makes when opposing teams are shooting free throws. Brad Davison had firmly cemented himself as the leader in the clubhouse for most hated opposing player in the conference (the Aaron Craft Memorial Award) with his flopping, even before his nut punch of Marquette's Joey Hauser last Saturday (google it--if the "hook and hold" is a flagrant I, should that only be an equivalent?). Back to substance, Wisconsin is very good. Haps is a unique player, who is hard to guard one on one because of his footwork and craftiness at the rim, and impossible to double because of his passing ability to open shooters. Wisconsin is solid defensively. This is not at the level of Bo Ryan's great teams, but it looks like the Badgers are a solid tournament team.
Illinois--For the most part, the Illini have been a hot mess. There is some real talent in the backcourt with Trent Frazier, freshman Ayo Desemnu, and JUCO Andres Felix, but Brad Underwood's team lacks size, experience and quality depth, and tends to wear down as games go along. In addition, Illinois plays a frenetic style, especially on defense (akin to South Carolina's style, which is no surprise, since Underwood was an assistant for Frank Martin), which exacerbates Illinois' weaknesses, as it leads to lots of fouls (particularly for the only serviceable big, freshman Giorgi Beshanishvilli) and rotation issues once teams solve the pressure and stop turning it over (Illinois is really bad at 2 point % and defensive rebounding, largely for this very reason). The Illini have lots of shooters, and that plus the funky defensive style is going to get some teams in conference play, but this is a rebuilding year. And, since Illinois signed no one in the early signing period (though they have an oral commitment from a top 150 big), the rebuild may take a while.
Indiana--Freshman Romeo langford is the real deal. Senior big Juwan Morgan is an all-conference level player. Indiana has pieces around them. Right now, this is a team which is being held back by erratic point guard play (and that's being nice), and a lack of experience and role definition (which has been hampered by early season injuries). Indiana turns it over a lot, takes some really bad shots (Langford, for as good as he is, currently has a 3 point % of 23.5%), and struggles in guarding the post and in defensive rotations. All that said, Indiana is a team which has a higher ceiling than many in the conference, and looks to be a comfortable tournament team.
Iowa--The good news is that Iowa is better defensively than last year. The bad news is that this is a really low bar, since the Hawkeyes were worse defensively last year than any power conference team I have watched in at least the last decade. Iowa has been very good to date in defending the 3 point shot. This is not to say that Iowa is good defensively--they're not, and as Michigan State showed, they are particularly susceptible to teams with great ball movement, as they are very slow to react (MSU had 29 assists on 30 made baskets, which is absurd)--but the improvement makes it possible for Fran McCaffrey's group to outscore some teams rather than simply get beat in high scoring affairs. make no mistake--Iowa can score from all over the floor, and that's even with sharpshooter Jason Bohannon shooting under 30% from 3 point range on the year. What is scary about defending Iowa is that they have two bigs (Tyler Cook and Luka Garza) who can score in bunches, and who can play together because of Garza's inside/outside game. What is less scary is that Iowa has no perimeter guys who are big time threats to create their own shot off the dribble. If you can limit the bigs, you're going to beat Iowa the vast majority of the time. If you can't, they're going to beat some teams. To me, Iowa is a bubble team.
Maryland--The most athletic team in the conference and it's not close. Bruno Fernando and freshman Jalen Smith are extremely athletic bigs, who block shots, pound the offensive glass, and have some skills (especially Fernando) away from the basket. Maryland also has athletic shooters and an experienced, talented point guard in Anthony Cowan. The Terps are hampered by very loose ball security, and a half court offense which, if you stop it early, devolves into Cowan pounding the dribble for about 10 seconds and then either trying to penetrate in the last few seconds of the shot clock or tossing up a difficult, contested 25 footer (which he sometimes makes, though his percentage this year is poor), Put another way, if you keep Maryland out of transition, you can defend them. Defensively, despite being a team with 5 freshman and 2 sops in their playing rotation, Maryland is good--Cowan is a plus on ball defender, as is Darryle Morsell, and the bigs are rim protectors, though they re foul prone. The Terms are going to be inconsistent but scary on an individual game basis. Likely NCAA team.
Michigan State--The Spartans are the best offensive team in the league--Cassius Winston, Josh Langford (who has been much better and more aggressive this year), and Nick Ward are all plus or plus plus offensive players, and there are solid role players alongside. MSU still turns the ball over way too much, but they also have have very high assist numbers, so the ratio isn't bad. The other issue offensively is lack of shot creators, especially at the basket--on off shooting days and/or days when Ward gets in foul trouble and takes away an inside threat, there is less option B than there has been in the past. Defensively, MSU is solid, but not great by any means--because of their lack of perimeter athleticism and rim protection, they contain more than they have, and thus don't force turnovers (bottom 20 nationally in this category, per Bart Torvik), and yet they still foul a lot. They do contest shots though. Overall, a very good team, albeit with perhaps less ceiling than some of Tom Izzo's better squads.
Minnesota--The Gophers can't shoot. They are long and athletic, have some guys who can go off on the offensive side of the floor (notably Amir Coffey), pound the offensive glass, and get to the line A LOT. If they have to beat you from the perimeter though, that's very unlikely to happen (they were 0 for the game from 3 against OSU). Defensively, Minnesota is nothing special one way or the other in any area. And there's Little Ricky Pitino on the sidelines. From my vantage point, a bubble out team, but one which will have its moments, particularly at home, if/when Coffey can take over offensively.
Nebraska--This has to be the year for Tim Miles--the Huskers start 3 seniors and a junior who will likely at least test the NBA waters (Isaiah Roby), and Miles' job is on the line. So far, except for a disturbing second half defensive meltdown in Minneapolis, Nebraska is playing well, and most importantly, senior point guard Glynn Watson, who really struggled last year, has been very, very good to date. The Huskers have also been excellent defensively, ranking top 10 nationally in effective field goal percentage, though their opponents continuing to shoot under 29% from 3 is probably unsustainable. Nebraska needs to show that it can win on the road, though they did have a nice win at Clemson in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. If they do that even a bit, this is an experienced and scary team with athleticism and talent.
Northwestern--The 'Cats would be a good/very good team if they had a point guard--they're solid elsewhere, and Derrick Pardon and Vic Law are all Big ten caliber players. Alas, they do not have anyone even resembling a point guard, which makes them very susceptible to teams which can pressure them, and/or have quickness on the perimeter. Currently, Northwestern is playing 4 wings and a post, which could cause some other teams problems--however, one of the wings (Anthony Gaines) can't shoot, another (Ryan Taylor, a grad transfer from Evansville) always shoots (if you foul him, it's likely in the act of shooting, see, e.g., Sean Higgins), and has not been as successful as he needs to be, and a third (Miller Kopp) makes a lot of freshman mistakes. All that said, their length makes them good defensively, and they'll win some slugfests, as they did against us. Chris Collins is recruiting at a high level for Northwestern, and his team will get back to the tournament--it's just not likely to be this year.
Ohio State--Chris Holtmann can coach. This is the second straight year that the Buckeyes have lost A LOT, been consigned to the lower/middle of the Big Ten pre-season, and exceeded expectations, at least to date. Kaleb Wesson is a load inside, and OSU has shooters around him and a solid point guard in senior C.J. Jackson, but the Buckeyes calling card is on defense, where they rank top 20 in effective field goal percentage against, including a ridiculous (and almost surely unsustainable) 27% opposing field goal mark from 3. OSU has 2 impressive road wins--at Cincinnati and at Creighton--in the non-conference. This looks like a high floor, relatively low ceiling team to me, which will play in the tournament.
Penn State--This may be it for Pat Chambers. PSU can't shoot, turns the ball over with regularity, and stands out in no way on the offensive end. Lamar Stens is good, but he's a number 2 option forced to play as a primary, freshman Rasir Bolton shows promise from the perimeter, albeit he has been really hot and really cold from game to game, and the rest are just guys right now. Defensively, PSU is very good, but not good enough to consistently overcome an offense well outside the top 100 nationally. PSU has a very good win against Virginia Tech, and some opportunities coming up (neutral court games this month with NC State and Alabama), but losses to DePaul and Bradley, and an 0-2 Big Ten start puts them behind the 8-ball. This would be no tournament appearances in 8 years if PSU doesn't get hot.
Purdue--Carsen Edwards is a scoring machine. Ryan Cline can shoot, and freshman Aaron Wheeler shows signs of being a bucket maker. When, however, you are as heavily reliant on a single player as Purdue is on Edwards (who has an off the chart usage rate of 37.4%), you're susceptible to going under when he doesn't play well, and can struggle even when he does unless the others chip in, as was shown in Sunday's loss at Texas when Edwards went for 40, but Cline was 1-9 from 3. Purdue plays 2 guys extensively (Matt Haarms and Nojel Eastern) who don't even look to shoot or to get to the rim--it's hard to run an offense 3 on 5, especially when you're a team which, like Purdue, has to hoist about 50% of its shots from beyond the arc. And even when the offense works, it isn't Purdue's biggest problem--a leaky defense, in part caused by lack of overall athleticism, and in part caused by an exhausted Edwards, is that. Purdue is going to beat some teams--Edwards is that good, and when the shooters get hot, the Boilers can be a load. I think they're a bubble team at this point, unless freshman like Eric Hunter, who has struggled mightily to date, and Wheeler, who has shown some recent signs, are able to play more and inject some options and athleticism into the Boilers' lineup.
Rutgers--Rutgers is better. Losing Corey Sanders, as talented as he was, seems to have been addition by subtraction, as the offense is no longer get out of Corey's way while he dominates the ball, does a few things spectacularly, and is generally inefficient. However, despite the fact that soph Geo Baker is legitimately good, and transfer Peter Kiss (that's not a typo) has some talent, Rugers is really bad (again) on the offensive end. Under Steve Pickell, Rutgers has always been good defensively, pounded the offensive glass, and looked to win low scoring games. This team is his best yet on the defensive end, and beat Miami at Miami for that reason. The defense, though, will not win a ton of games in conference, though it will win some.
Wisconsin--Ethan Happ is back for his 27th year as a badger, surrounded by a plethora of shooters. D'Mitrik Trice, brother of former MSU guard Travis Trice, has brought otherworldly 3 point shooting (55.4%) to the table, as well as the otherworldly sounds his mother makes when opposing teams are shooting free throws. Brad Davison had firmly cemented himself as the leader in the clubhouse for most hated opposing player in the conference (the Aaron Craft Memorial Award) with his flopping, even before his nut punch of Marquette's Joey Hauser last Saturday (google it--if the "hook and hold" is a flagrant I, should that only be an equivalent?). Back to substance, Wisconsin is very good. Haps is a unique player, who is hard to guard one on one because of his footwork and craftiness at the rim, and impossible to double because of his passing ability to open shooters. Wisconsin is solid defensively. This is not at the level of Bo Ryan's great teams, but it looks like the Badgers are a solid tournament team.
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