Attrition during the Harbaugh era...

nickespitia · Feb 12, 2021

A couple of weeks ago I put together a post looking at who Michigan had returning next year based on position group and recruiting rankings (you can see that post here). My general takeaway from that analysis was that based on recruiting rankings we still have a good amount of talent on the team. Some of that talent is young and some of that talent hasn't lived up to their recruiting expectations, but from a talent standpoint, Michigan will have more highly ranked players than everyone in the big ten other than OSU.

The other major takeaway for me was that recruiting has not been the issue for Harbaugh and the staff. Yes, there are some holes on the roster and we were talent deficient at certain positions but it wasn't because we didn't recruit those positions well. It was because of early departures or guys not living up to their recruiting billing (so either an issue of evaluation or development). So, while I think the new staff is promising and that they are excellent recruiters I don't think that was the main issue for our previous staff. Even if the new staff are better individual recruiters than the old staff I'm not sure we're going to see a significant improvement in Michigan's team recruiting rankings. The previous staff brought in two top 5 classes and frankly, I think that is the program's ceiling. Maybe they can sneak into the top 3 if everything goes right but for a lot of reasons I don't see them consistently finishing ahead of programs like Alabama, Clemson, OSU, and Georgia in the team rankings. The key is going to be if our new staff is better able to evaluate, retain, and develop the kids on our roster. I realize this isn't a new or groundbreaking take but I thought others might be interested in seeing exactly who departed the program early and how it affected depth at key position groups. Below I've listed players who could have been on the team last year and next year but left before their eligibility expired. Some guys got hurt, some transferred, and some went pro but they all left early. Some of the reasons for leaving are more justifiable than others (no one blames Ruiz for leaving to be a first-round pick or blames the staff for kicking Nate Johnson off the team) but at the end of the day, their departure hurt the program. Part of the staff's job is retaining players and it's been an area of struggle for Harbaugh and the previous staffs. I think the issues we had last year and our concerns for the roster next year would have been less significant if these guys stayed or lived up to their recruiting hype. Hopefully, the new staff is able to better evaluate, retain, and develop the players and recruits on the team. Note - I did not include guys from the 16 played as true freshmen. Some were still in college during the 2020 season because they redshirted the year after they transferred (e.g. Kekoa Crawford) but had they stayed at Michigan they would have been out of eligibility in 2019).

2020 early departures
- QB
  - Dylan McCaffrey - 2017 recruiting class, 5.9 4-star, #131 overall, #7 PQB, opted out then transferred to Northern Colorado
  - Brandon Peters - 2016 recruiting class, 5.9 4-star, #158 overall, #6 PQB, transferred to Illinois
- RB
  - Kareem Walker - 2016 recruiting class, 5.8 4-star, #181 overall, #6 RB, transferred to JUCO then to Mississippi State
  - O'Maury Samuels - 2017 recruiting class, 5.8 4-star, unranked, #21 RB, dismissed from the team then transferred to New Mexico State
  - Christian Turner - 2018 recruiting class, 5.7 3-star, #18 RB, opted out then transferred to Wake Forest
  - Kingston Davis - 2016 recruiting class, 5.7 3-star, #2 FB, transferred to JUCO then UAB
  - Kurt Taylor - 2017 recruiting class, 5.5 3-star, unranked RB, transferred to JUCO then to Tennessee Tech
- WR
  - Donovan Peoples-Jones - 2017 recruiting class, 6.1 5-star, #12 overall, #1 WR, entered NFL draft, 6th round pick to Cleveland
  - Tarik Black - 2017 recruiting, 5.9 4-star, #76 overall, #11 WR, transferred to Texas
  - Nico Collins - 2017 recruiting class, 5.9 4-star, #120 overall, #17 WR, opted out then declared for the NFL draft
  - Ahmir Mitchell - 2016 recruiting class, 5.9 4-star, #139 overall, #30 WR, transferred to Rutgers
  - Oliver Martin - 2017 recruiting class, 5.8 4-star, #206 overall, #35 WR, transferred to Iowa then Nebraska
- TE
  - Mustapha Muhammad - 2018 recruiting class, 5.8 4-star, #17 TE, transferred to JUCO
- OL
  - Cesar Ruiz - 2017 recruiting class, 6.0 4-star, #41 overall, #1 OC, entered NFL draft, 1st round pick to the Saints
  - James Hudson - 2017 recruiting class, 5.8 4-star, #240 overall, #8 SDE, transferred to Cincinnati
  - Stephen Spanellis - 2016 recruiting class, 5.7 3-star, #36 OT, transferred to Vanderbilt
  - Ja'Raymond Hall - 2017 recruiting class, 5.6 3-star, transferred to CMU
- DE
  - Corey Malone-Hatcher - 2017 recruiting class, 5.8 4-star, #12 SDE, injured and converted to medical scholarship
  - Ron Johnson - 2016 recruiting class, 5.8 4-star, #20 WDE, transferred to Towson
  - Aaron Lewis - 2020 recruiting class, 5.6 3-star, #35 SDE, transferred to Rutghers
- DT
  - Aubrey Soloman - 2017 recruiting class, 6.1 5-star, #31 overall, #2 DT, transferred to Tennessee
  - Deron Irving-Bey - 2017 recruiting class, 5.7 3-star, #18 SDE, transferred to CMU
  - Michael Dwumfour - 2016 recruiting class, 5.5 3-star, unranked SDE, transferred to Rutgers
- LB
  - Jordan Anthony - 2017 recruiting class, 6.1 5-star, #26 overall, #1 MLB, transferred
  - Drew Singleton - 2017 recruiting class, 6.0 4-star, #52 overall, #4 OLB, transferred to Rutgers
  - Osman Savage - 2020 recruiting class, 5.8 4-star, #158 overall, #13 OLB
  - Josh Uche - 2016 recruiting class, 5.7 3-star, #22 WDE, entered NFL draft, 2nd round pick to NE
  - Charles Thomas - 2019 recruiting class, 5.6 3-star, #35 ILB,
  - Devin Gil - 2016 recruiting class, 5.5 3-star unranked LB transferred to USF
- CB
  - Myles Sims - 2018 recruiting class, 5.9 4-star, #103 overall, #14 CB, transferred to Georgia Tech
  - Ambry Thomas - 2017 recruiting class, 5.9 4-star, #146 overall, #15 CB, opted out then entered NFL draft
  - Ben St Juste - 2017 recruiting class, 5.8 4-star, #229 overall, #20 CB, transferred to Minnesota
- S
  - Jaylen Kelly Powell - 2017 recruiting class, 5.7 3-star, #34 S, transferred to Akron
  - J'Marick Woods - 2017 recruiting class, 5.7 3-star, #45 S, transferred to Duke
Totals
- Three 5-stars
- Six Top 100 players
- Nineteen 4-stars
2021 early departures
- QB
  - Dylan McCaffrey - 2017 recruiting class, 5.9 4-star, #131 overall, #7 PQB, opted out then transferred to Northern Colorado
- RB
  - Zach Charbonnet - 2019 recruiting class, 6.0 4-star, #60 overall, #4 RB, transferred to UCLA
  - O'Maury Samuels - 2017 recruiting class, 5.8 4-star, unranked, #21 RB, dismissed from the team then transferred to New Mexico State
  - Christian Turner - 2018 recruiting class, 5.7 3-star, #18 RB, opted out then transferred to Wake Forest
  - Kurt Taylor - 2017 recruiting class, 5.5 3-star, unranked RB, transferred to JUCO then to Tennessee Tech
- WR
  - Oliver Martin - 2017 recruiting class, 5.8 4-star, #206 overall, #35 WR, transferred to Iowa then Nebraska
- TE
  - Mustapha Muhammad - 2018 recruiting class, 5.8 4-star, #17 TE, transferred to JUCO
- OL
  - James Hudson - 2017 recruiting class, 5.8 4-star, #240 overall, #8 SDE, transferred to Cincinnati
  - Jaylen Mayfield - 2018 recruiting class, 5.8 4-star, #17 OT, entered the NFL draft
  - Zach Carpenter - 2019 recruiting class, 5.7 3-star, #15 OG, transferred to Cincinnati
  - Ja'Raymond Hall - 2017 recruiting class, 5.6 3-star, #78 transferred to CMU
- DE
  - Luiji Vilan - 2017 recruiting class, 5.9 4-star, #74 overall, #5 WDE, transferred to Wake Forest
  - Corey Malone-Hatcher - 2017 recruiting class, 5.8 4-star, #12 SDE, injured and converted to medical scholarship
  - Aaron Lewis - 2020 recruiting class, 5.6 3-star, #35 SDE, transferred to Rutghers
- DT
  - Deron Irving-Bey - 2017 recruiting class, 5.7 3-star, #18 SDE, transferred to CMU
- LB
  - Jordan Anthony - 2017 recruiting class, 6.1 5-star, #26 overall, #1 MLB, transferred
  - Drew Singleton - 2017 recruiting class, 6.0 4-star, #52 overall, #4 OLB, transferred to Rutgers
  - Osman Savage - 2020 recruiting class, 5.8 4-star, #158 overall, #13 OLB
  - Cam McGrone - 2018 recruiting class, 5.8 4-star, #195 overall, #16 OLB
- CB
  - Myles Sims - 2018 recruiting class, 5.9 4-star, #103 overall, #14 CB, transferred to Georgia Tech
  - Ben St Juste - 2017 recruiting class, 5.8 4-star, #229 overall, #20 CB, transferred to Minnesota
- S
  - Jaylen Kelly Powell - 2017 recruiting class, 5.7 3-star, #34 S, transferred to Akron
  - J'Marick Woods - 2017 recruiting class, 5.7 3-star, #45 S, transferred to Duke
Totals
- one 5-star,
- four top 100 guys
- fourteen 4-stars

Blue Kahuna · Feb 12, 2021